In the previous installment of the Range of Outcomes series, I (not so) subtly hinted at a SPECIAL Range of Outcomes installment. Was your top rookie WR not featured in the Top-5 Rookie WR Range of Outcomes? Chances are they will be covered in this article as long as they played in college football’s SEC conference. Without further ado, let’s look at five more rookie WRs and their floors and ceilings!
Kadarius Toney
Leave it to David Gettleman. He FINALLY traded down in the NFL Draft and he still managed to screw up.
Kadarius Toney’s Best Comparable Players
If Kadarius Toney does anything in the NFL to justify his first-round selection, then he’ll be considered an analytical outlier. This includes starting one game in his career.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaiLjMfx2DM
Bruce Ellington is his only comp with NFL draft capital that has caught a pass in the NFL. His stat line for his best season was 29-330-2. What does that tell us? Despite his first-round status, Toney has the lowest floor of the notable 2021 rookie WRs.
Each year there’s one highly drafted wide receiver with lackluster Best Comparable Player comps. Avoid those rookies!
In 2020, top-drafted Henry Ruggs’ best comp was Marquise Goodwin. In 2019, Marquise Brown’s entire best-five comps were bad players. The same could be said for 2018 with Dante Pettis. All three of these players were top-50 NFL picks.
Each year, a team gets too cute with a top-50 pick on a WR.
2020: Henry Ruggs
2019: Marquise Brown
2018: Dante PettisGettleman FINALLY traded down in the NFL draft, only to immediately screw up.
Gettleman going to Gettleman.🤷♂️
— Aaron Stewart (@ffbcaptain) August 20, 2021
Toney’s ceiling is Tavon Austin 2.0 and his floor is Dante Pettis 2.0.
Elijah Moore
What Elijah Moore lacks in size (5-9, 178-pounds), he makes up with speed. He ran a 4.40 (92nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) 40-Yard Dash and totaled a 10.67 (98th-percentile) Agility Score.
Elijah Moore’s Best Comparable Players
When pairing the athleticism with his draft capital and production, Tyler Lockett and Emmanuel Sanders are perfect players to look for his floor and ceiling.
Sanders’ 2013 season is Moore’s floor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hjsj5M_KPzc
In 2019, Moore finished with 67 catches on 117 targets. In 2013, Sanders finished with 67 catches on 112 targets. Sanders can play outside with success because of his 130.2 (88th-percentile) Burst Score and 10.34 (92nd-percentile) Catch Radius.
Moore and his 121.7 (53rd-percentile) Burst Score lack the same explosiveness as Sanders. It’s the same story with his 10.12 (63rd-percentile) Catch Radius. If Sanders in his fourth NFL season struggled outside, there’s a possibility the same happens to Moore in his career.
Lockett’s 2020 season is Moore’s ceiling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKa_Do-2884
Each passing year, slot receivers become more important to offenses. Last season, Lockett had 492 (No. 8) Slot Snaps and tortured NFL defenses. In total, he turned 132 (No. 11) targets into 100 (No. 5) receptions and 1054 (No. 15) receiving yards.
Russell Wilson‘s most trusted receiver had a 93.5-percent (No. 11) True Catch Rate and created 2.17 (No. 6) yards of Target Separation. Despite his minuscule frame, Wilson targeted him 16 (No. 11) times in the red zone. With the help of 10 touchdowns, Lockett finished as a WR1 with 16.6 (No. 12) Fantasy Points Per Game.
Moore has shown in college he can be a target hog. He boasts a 36.7-percent (98th-percentile) College Target Share. His junior season in 2020 saw him lead the FBS with 10.8 receptions and 149.1 receiving yards per game.
Moore’s floor is fringe WR3 playing primarily outside and his ceiling is high-end WR2 as a PPR monster in the slot.
Terrace Marshall
Size? Check. Early breakout? Check. Draft capital? Check. Terrace Marshall checks all of the boxes that we look for at PlayerProfiler.
Terrace Marshall’s Best Comparable Players
Marshall has the widest range of outcomes in the 2021 wide receiver class. Look no further than his SEC player comps during the 2012 season: A.J. Green and Sidney Rice.
Rice’s 2012 season is Marshall’s floor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SsCuumxBU4
Rice utilized his 100.3 (70th-percentile) Speed Score and 10.27 (86th-percentile) Catch Radius to average 15.0 (No. 20) YPR. This resembled his collegiate career average of 15.7 at South Carolina. In college, Rice had a low 15.8-percent (31st-percentile) College Target Share. Not surprisingly, Rice’s 82 targets in 2012 ranked No. 70 among all players.
Evidenced by a 94.5 Teammate Score, Marshall played with talented teammates. For comparison, Rice’s Teammate Score was 11.6. Similar to Rice though was an uninspiring 18.6-percent (45th-percentile) College Target Share.
With Robby Anderson’s recent two-year extension and D.J. Moore as the alpha in Carolina, Marshall may continue playing third-fiddle. Rice’s pedestrian 20.4-percent (No. 37) Target Share contributed to his 10.5 (No. 49) Fantasy Points Per Game in 2012.
Green’s 2012 season is Marshall’s ceiling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xymV0svQP2I
The other spectrum is that, similar to his LSU teammate Justin Jefferson, Marshall surpasses his target competition. 2019 saw Anderson finish with 10.0 (No. 54) Fantasy Points Per Game before following up with top-15 finishes in receptions (95) and yards (1088) in 2020. Did Anderson receive a large Target Share because Carolina lacked receiver depth?
Green’s 164 targets were the fifth-most in 2012 and his volume lead to 18.7 (No. 3) Fantasy Points Per Game. Talent demands the ball, and last season Marshall averaged 10 targets per game at LSU against an SEC-only schedule.
Adam Thielen in 2018 saw 155 (No. 6) targets, and two years later took a back seat to Jefferson. Is it unfathomable for another LSU receiver to force Moore and Anderson to eventually take back seats?
Marshall’s floor is WR4 and his ceiling is he becomes the captain and produces top-five fantasy seasons.
Josh Palmer
From an analytics perspective, Josh Palmer was a surprising third-round pick by the Chargers.
Josh Palmer’s Best Comparable Players
The team must have liked his film because the Volunteers’ passing offense didn’t show up in the stat sheets.
Jacoby Jones’ 2011 season is Palmer’s floor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3nreFy5pBc
In 2011, Jacoby Jones’ 16.5 YPR was No. 17 in the league. Unfortunately, his 47.7-percent Catch Rate was No. 182. Jones profiled as a deep-threat WR with a 110.2 (92nd-percentile) Speed Score at 6-3 and 220-pounds. He had a 10.16 (70th-percentile) Catch Radius to help with difficult catches.
When juxtaposed with Palmer, it paints a frightening floor. Palmer is smaller (6-1, 210-pounds) than Jones. He was also slower and less athletic with a 96.3 (58th-percentile) Speed Score and 10.05 (51st-percentile) Catch Radius.
Palmer is expected to replace Mike Williams by 2022. With Justin Herbert at quarterback, Williams saw a 65.9-percent (No. 100) Catchable Target Rate. Palmer is used to not seeing catchable passes at Guarantano Bay, Tennessee. However, he also lacked the athletic traits to convert those targets.
Jones’ 2010 season is Palmer’s ceiling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxA2f-INzDM
The prior season saw Jones record career highs in all receiving stats, except touchdowns. What changed?
Andre Johnson, the split-end receiver, was hurt in 2011, and Jones was forced out of position. In 2010, Jones played his natural flanker receiver position.
Flanker receivers usually see a lower depth of target. This was evidenced by Jones’ drop in YPR from 16.5 to 11.0 in 2010. Lower distance throws also mean greater odds of a higher Catch Rate. This proved true as Jones caught 65.4-percent of his targets.
A stat line of 51-562-3 resulted in 8.4 (No. 64) Fantasy Points Per Game for Jones. Palmer played behind Marquez Callaway (undrafted) and Jauan Jennings (7th round) at Tennessee. He failed to top 500 yards in college and it’s hard to see him performing much better in the NFL.
Palmer’s floor is droppable in fantasy football and his ceiling is an Underdog Best Ball dart throw.
Anthony Schwartz
As a world-class sprinter, it’s not surprising that two of Anthony Schwartz’s comps have two of the highest Dynamic Scores in the Breakout Finder database.
Anthony Schwartz’s Best Comparable Players
With a 4.32 (99th-percentile) 40-Yard Dash, how well will it translate to fantasy success?
Kenny Stills’ career is Schwartz’s floor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujWPq8lY0qA
With a 4.38 (95th-percentile) 40-Yard Dash, Stills has made an eight-year career as a speedy deep-threat. These players don’t perform well in fantasy and Still was no exception. His best fantasy seasonal finish was WR36 in Fantasy Points Per Game.
With a 10.8-percent (11th-percentile) College Target Share, Stills was never a heavily targeted receiver. Until 2020, neither was Schwartz. His Target Shares in 2018 and 2019 were 8.9-percent and 12.1-percent, respectively.
Besides running in a straight line, can Schwartz do anything else well at the pro level? The rest of his Workout Metrics are lackluster. His Burst Score (115.9), Agility Score (11.38), and Catch Radius (9.95) all finished under the 33rd-percentile.
Curtis Samuel’s 2020 is Schwartz’s ceiling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnumTMUnXKs
Samuel created 337 (No. 22) Yards After Catch to make up for his 7.15 (No. 98) Average Target Distance. Similar to Samuel’s freshmen season, Schwartz saw more carries than receptions in his first collegiate season. Kevin Stefanski may opt to generate shorter targets for the speedster.
Schwartz’s breakout collegiate season in 2020 saw Auburn use him in the shorter passing game. Will his 26.4-percent (78th-percentile) College Target Share translate to the pros as a slot weapon?
Schwartz, on a quarter of the collegiate carries, exceeded Samuel’s 7.5 YPC mark (7.7). Even more impressive was the fact he scored seven times on the ground on 42 career carries.
Samuel finished with 14.1 (No. 28) Fantasy Points Per Game. 15-percent of his fantasy production came from his rushing stats. Schwartz has the athletic background and running skills to produce on the ground.
