Rashid Shaheed Fantasy League-Winner | Everything You Need to Know for Week 12

by Matt Babich · Analytics & Advanced Metrics
Rashid Shaheed fantasy

This is Everything You Need to Know, Week 12 edition. In Week 11, we laid out the game plan for dealing with the backfields in Carolina and Seattle, completely flopped on the Ty Chandler breakout spot (due to Alexander Mattison‘s unexpected Week 11 appearance), called out the impending arrival of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and believed in Tampa Bay’s top producers in a tough matchup.

Without further ado, let’s get right into everything you need to know for NFL Week 12!

I Feel the Need…the Need for Rashid Shaheed

Michael Thomas has been sent to IR with a knee injury, and the next man up is second-year speedster Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed has earned at least six targets in four of seven games this season where Thomas has less than a 60-percent Snap Share.

Shaheed’s big play ability gets a showcase with Thomas on the sidelines. Last season, when working as the number two option in six games, he averaged 13 fantasy points per game, with two games over 18 fantasy points.

Keaton Mitchell Getting More Involved

Ravens rookie Keaton Mitchell had a quiet outing last Thursday after two explosive performances the prior weeks. However, his Snap Share has increased for the third straight game, posting a career-high 36-percent. Continuing to chalk up efficient performances, Mitchell is clearly carving out the 1B role behind Gus Edwards.

On Thursday, Mitchell out-snapped Justice Hill for the first time this season, marking two straight games under a 30-percent Snap Share for Hill. Edwards is the short yardage and goal line back, but Mitchell is quickly becoming the official change-of-pace back. A lack of involvement in the passing game will be an issue, but Mitchell is a low-end RB3 going forward.

Don’t Forget About Jalen Guyton

Jalen Guyton missed Week 11 after a boom week versus Detroit, and many are already forgetting about the Chargers receiver. Guyton, who saw 79-percent of the snaps in Week 10, is cemented as the number two receiving option with Mike Williams and Josh Palmer inactive. It’s obvious Quentin Johnston has had his chance. 

Justin Herbert, who has established a downfield connection with Guyton, is likely excited to see the speedy receiver return to the lineup. Even if Guyton misses this week, he’s still a stash candidate and has an opportunity to produce down the stretch.

Elijah Moore Late Season Resurgence

Don’t look now, but Elijah Moore has now cracked 12 fantasy points in two straight games. It’s been a struggle for Moore this season. His misuse has led to poor outputs, but things may be turning around as we gear up for the fantasy playoffs.

Moore now has at least seven targets in seven of 10 games this season. His route profile, concentrated near the line of scrimmage and in the middle of the field, is more geared towards Dorian Thompson-Robinson‘s skill set. Don’t give up hope on Moore, who should be a low-end WR4/high-end WR5 going forward. He’ll be needed this upcoming week as Patrick Surtain will take care of Amari Cooper.

Zach Charbonnet is a Bellcow without Kenneth Walker

With Kenneth Walker sidelined for most of Week 11’s matchup against the Rams, Zach Charbonnet saw a career-high 85-percent Snap Share and earned 15 carries and six targets. His RB19 performance was the glimmer of hope that Charbonnet drafters have been waiting for all season.

Until Walker returns, Charbonnet will have a stranglehold on this offense’s backfield opportunity and production. Despite a tough schedule, he’s a weekly borderline RB2/RB3 for any and all games where he is the lead back.

Implied Team Totals

Highest Implied Team Totals

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (26.5)
  2. Philadelphia Eagles (25.5)
  3. Baltimore Ravens (25.5)
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars (24.75)
  5. Houston Texans (23.75)

The main slate Sunday is getting robbed of many of our favorite high-scoring offenses, such as the Cowboys, 49ers, and Dolphins. While this slims the playing field, it creates an opportunity to submit some unique lineups.

There are three matchups on the main slate that will have high exposures: Eagles-Bills, Jaguars-Texans, and Chargers-Ravens. Outside of those three games, most other matchups are set up to be real stinkers. We’ll want exposure to all of the high projected games, with an emphasis on Jaguars-Texans, which should provide the most points at the best DFS prices.

The matchup between the Colts and the Buccaneers, however, is a great contrarian game to target this week. Both defenses give up explosive plays like it’s their job, and both offenses have a plethora of high-octane producers. The score could easily run up to 60 points.

Lowest Implied Team Totals

  1. New York Giants (15.5)
  2. Cincinnati Bengals (16.25)
  3. Carolina Panthers (16.5)
  4. Cleveland Browns (16.75)
  5. Las Vegas Raiders (17)

After thrashing the Commanders defense, Vegas isn’t buying the Tommy DeVito hype. He’ll face off against a Patriots defense that does exactly what the Commanders cannot: stop the run and pressure the quarterback. Clearly, Vegas thinks it’s smart to fade these backup QBs, putting DeVito, Jake Browning, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Aidan O’Connell on our fade list.

We can lean on isolated producers in these offenses, such as David Njoku for the Browns, Adam Thielen for the Panthers, and Davante Adams for the Raiders. Those pass catchers are seeing enough opportunity to overcome their awful teams, but the total production of the offenses will impact the ceiling of the other options.

With rocket-armed Will Levis taking on a pathetic Panthers secondary, and Adam Thielen facing off against a lifeless Titans secondary, there’s a real opportunity to cash in on game stacks in the Panthers-Titans matchup. It’s a low-total game that could end up surprising everyone.

DFS Values: Trevor Lawrence ($6400), Rachaad White ($6100), Jerome Ford ($5600), Christian Kirk ($5700), Josh Downs ($4800), Marquise Brown ($5200), Evan Engram ($4200)

Injury Report

De’Von Achane

Rookie sensation De’Von Achane re-aggravated his knee injury in his first game back from Injured Reserve. As of now, the reports are that it would be surprising for him to get back into the lineup on Friday. Expect the Dolphins to prioritize the health of their standout running back.

Michael Thomas

Michael Thomas has been placed on Injured Reserve, indicating he’ll miss at least the next four games with his knee injury. Expect Rashid Shaheed and A.T. Perry to step up in his absence, making Shaheed a weekly WR3/Flex candidate and Perry a deep-league stash.

Derek Carr

Derek Carr has yet to clear the NFL’s concussion protocol, giving him a questionable tag for Sunday. However, Carr returned to practice on Wednesday, indicating that he’ll be active for Sunday’s matchup against the Falcons.

Odell Beckham Jr.

Odell Beckham has yet to practice this week due to the shoulder injury that caused him to miss the rest of Week 11’s contest against the Bengals. While it sure looks like prime OBJ has returned, with three explosive performances in consecutive weeks, his overall usage has been limited.

The production has been useful, but there’s heavy risk baked into his 71-percent (No. 76) Route Participation.

Kenneth Walker

Kenneth Walker missed most of last week’s contest against the Rams due to an oblique injury. The important news is that he is not currently being considered for IR. This doesn’t mean much, as similar reports recently surfaced with Michael Thomas. We can’t yet officially deem Zach Charbonnet a league winner.

With Walker likely out in Week 12, Charbonnet is a strong candidate to win fantasy gamers their Week 12 matchups. However, don’t go out and buy Charbonnet expecting his stranglehold on the backfield’s touches to last throughout the fantasy playoffs just yet.

Darren Waller

The Giants tight end said he’s in the “early phases” of his recovery, indicating there is no return on the horizon for the aging veteran.

Treylon Burks

Treylon Burks has yet to practice since sustaining a concussion weeks prior. If he returns to the practice field this week, he could return to the field on Sunday. However, his lack of performance when active makes him an uncertain option until we see some upside.

Puka Nacua

Puka Nacua suffered a shoulder injury, the extent of which is currently unknown. We’ll have to follow this situation closely. If he’s good to go this week, he’ll see a significant boost with Cooper Kupp likely out after spraining his ankle.

On to Week 12

Week over week, we’ve been paying attention to the right details and will continue to refine our process as we learn lessons from our losses. By continuing to attack the right matchups and following the right usage and efficiency trends, we’ll continue to DOMINATE in fantasy matchups and DFS lineups. Happy hunting!