In my previous article, I discussed three running backs who are poised to finish as the top RB in fantasy football or the RB1 overall. Perhaps most importantly, we want to avoid the RB fool’s gold candidates laid out in this article. The previous article is linked here. I used some data to support my thesis. The following qualifications were what every RB1 in fantasy football has had in common over the last five seasons:
- The running back must have an elite trait (90th-percentile or better according to playerprofiler.com).
- In order to be the RB1, the running back must post a 75-percent or better college dominator rating or have at least one season where they post a top 10 dominator rating while playing running back in the NFL.
- The running back must have multiple paths to fantasy points as four out of five past RB1’s ranked in the top five in target share.
- In order to be the RB1, the running back must have a top five snap share amongst running backs, or enough target share to offset the lack of snap share (Alvin Kamara).
- The running back must rank top five in red zone touches during their RB1 season.
Running Back Fool’s Gold
This article will cover running backs who look nice but in actuality are masquerading uninvited to the RB1 party. These are RB fool’s gold candidates. They are either declining in production, or they don’t come close to meeting the requirements of a running back who has exceeded expectations according to their current ADP.
Nick Chubb
Snap Share: 51.7-percent (No. 27)
Target Share: 6.3-percent (NR)
Targets: 25 (No. 54)
Yards per touch: 5.8 (No. 4)
Breakaway Runs: 17 (No. 3)
Red Zone touches: 42 (No. 18)
Touchdowns: 9 (No. 14)
Dominator Rating: 26.8-percent (No. 13)
Nick Chubb Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Why am I fading him?
This is a tough one for me because I do love Nick Chubb‘s game. He’s a straight baller. However, there is a difference between fantasy football and actual football. Unfortunately for Chubb, he doesn’t see enough opportunity in the offense. The 51.7-percent snap share is alarming. Why? I mean, what? He’s clearly the most talented running back on the roster. Why not at least 60-percent? I don’t get it. He also doesn’t see hardly any targets out of the backfield. This means if someone drafts Chubb, a fantasy gamer is completely dependent on his breakaway run ability because HE DOESN’T SEE MANY RED ZONE TOUCHES EITHER! Unless this changes, and there is no evidence that it will with Kareem Hunt still on the roster, then there is no reason to draft Chubb as high as he is going to go in your dynasty leagues or redraft leagues. Consider Chubb RB fool’s gold for 2022.
Derrick Henry
Snap Share: 70.9-percent (No. 3)
Target Share: 7.9-percent (NR)
Targets: 20 (No. 63)
Yards per touch: 4.6 (No. 31)
Breakaway Runs: 9 (No. 12)
Red Zone touches: 36 (No. 24)
Touchdowns: 10 (No. 8)
Dominator Rating: 37.9-percent (No. 2)
Derrick Henry Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Why am I fading him?
I get it, Derrick Henry is a beast, but he’s getting older, and we saw signs of that last year. He’s entering his age 28 season, and I think he takes another step back this season. He also doesn’t catch passes, which means we are, yet again, relying on the breakaway runs Henry has been known to produce in the past. That’s not enough for me to draft him early in the 1st round. I would much prefer waiting and getting Najee Harris or D’Andre Swift. If I were in this draft position, I would consider going wide receiver and then turning around and getting Swift in the 2nd round. There are so many unknowns with Henry, and not many paths to fantasy glory. Of course, he could make me look like an idiot because, well, he is Derrick Freaking Henry. However, I still believe Henry is RB fool’s gold for the 2022 season.
Javonte Williams
Snap Share: 49.9-percent (No. 31)
Target Share: 10.2-percent (No. 21)
Targets: 53 (No. 17)
Yards per touch: 5.0 (No. 18)
Breakaway Runs: 8 (No. 17)
Red Zone touches: 37 (No. 23)
Touchdowns: 7 (No. 21)
Dominator Rating: 20.1-percent (No. 26)
Javonte Williams Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Why am I fading him?
Again, we have another running back who will be sharing the backfield with another good running back in Melvin Gordon. I do think we see a bump in the snap share, but we’d better see that if we are going to be drafting Javonte Williams in the 2nd or 3rd round. My guess is we do see a bump in Williams’ numbers, but it won’t be significant enough to justify his current ADP. Think about how efficient Williams’ will have to be if he is going to be a top running back producer for fantasy teams this season. He might have a sub-60-percent target share, but I doubt it gets much higher than that.
Will he have weeks where he breaks away for a few touchdowns? Sure, but the weeks where Gordon trots into the end zone instead of Williams are going to be frequent enough to keep Williams off fantasy gamer’s draft list. Ultimately, I think there are better options where Williams comes off the board, and I would much rather take someone like J.K. Dobbins or Cam Akers later in the draft. Simply put, I don’t think Williams is going to equal the players being drafted around him. Perhaps if his ADP drops over the summer, then I might be interested, but I cannot justify drafting him where is being drafted currently.
