Stacking an elite quarterback and elite wide receiver in redraft fantasy football leagues presents a problem. Taking this approach requires overpaying for a position that generates massive ROI in later rounds. Waiting until the first nine or 10 quarterbacks go off the board to draft one allows fantasy gamers to stockpile high upside receivers, running backs and tight ends. The difference between numbers posted by quarterbacks going in the early rounds and quarterbacks going in the ninth round or later is not enough to justify spending early draft capital. Pairing that late-round quarterback with a wide receiver on his team who figures to outperform his ADP offers league-winning upside. With that in mind, based on advanced metrics and analytics, here are potential redraft fantasy football stacks to consider when implementing a late-round QB strategy. All ADP data generated from FantasyPros consensus ADP.
Buffalo: Josh Allen/Robert Foster
The sneakiest stack that the competition won’t see coming. From Weeks 12-17 last season, Josh Allen claimed the overall QB1 spot, averaging 21.9 fantasy points per game. His 0.47 fantasy points per dropback ranked No. 10. While his 26.2-percent deep ball completion percentage needs work, his 63.9 longest completed air distance (LCAD) led the league per Next Gen Stats. He possesses elite rushing ability that provides a safe floor, doesn’t shy away from the deep ball – his 65 attempts ranked No. 13 – and has a legitimate shot at finishing top-5 at the position. But despite that, his ADP is QB20.
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Allen’s willingness to throw downfield benefits teammate Robert Foster, whose advanced stats and metrics profile suggest he’s primed for a breakout. The undrafted second-year pro garnered a 59.9-percent snap share and saw 44 targets in his rookie season. Despite the small sample size, his efficiency stood out. Foster ranked No. 1 in yards per reception, average target distance and target quality rating. He also generated a 117.7 (No. 12 among qualified players) QB rating when targeted. Those metrics showcase his potential, yet the masses are off him. At 6-2, 196-pounds, with a 92nd-percentile 40-yard dash time, Foster possesses the speed to beat defenses down the field. His current price tag (WR73, 210 overall) makes him a solid late-round, upside add to pair with Allen.
Baltimore: Lamar Jackson/Willie Snead
Lamar Jackson took over for Joe Flacco in Week 11 and the former Heisman Trophy winner led fantasy franchises to the playoffs with his legs, not his arm. The Konami Code QB showed off a safe floor in consistently finishing inside the top-15, with a season-best QB5 finish in Week 17. Those doubting Jackson’s ability to improve in the passing game helped drive down his ADP to its current mark (QB19, 127 overall), and it’s a price worth paying for his skill set. The Ravens doubled down on offense this offseason, drafting wide receivers Marquise Brown (1.25) and Miles Boykin (3.29), and running back Justice Hill (4.11). Mark Ingram’s signing and Gus Edwards’ return rounds out a solid all-around unit to support Jackson and brightens his outlook.
Willie Snead, a free square at his current ADP (WR92, 272 overall), is the most proven NFL talent in this receiving corps and the team’s de facto WR1. His player profile underwhelms, but he matters in season-long leagues because he’s going undrafted. His competition includes veteran underachievers Seth Roberts and Michael Floyd, rookies Brown (foot) and Boykin (hamstring), and fourth-year pro Chris Moore. Brown’s draft capital makes him an intriguing option, but he was just activated from the active/NFI list and sports an inflated ADP (WR58). Couple that with historic data which shows rookie receivers underperform, and it becomes clear Snead provides the best redraft option.
Check out Willie Snead on PlayerProfiler’s “World Famous” Draft Kit:
Snead posted back-to-back seasons recording 850-plus receiving yards with New Orleans in 2015-16, returning WR3 value both seasons. A three-game suspension and a hamstring injury derailed his 2017 season before he signed with Baltimore. His potential ceiling hinges on Jackson’s ability to progress as a passer, but Snead should see 100-plus targets and will return WR3/flex value.
Chicago: Mitchell Trubisky/Anthony Miller
The training wheels came off for Mitchell Trubisky in his sophomore season, as fantasy gamers saw a glimpse of his ceiling. The former second overall draft pick passed for 300-plus yards four times after eclipsing that mark once his rookie season. He threw multiple TDs in seven games after failing to do so at all in his rookie year. He also rushed for 40-plus yards five times and scored three TDs. His current ADP puts him at QB18 after finishing 2018 as the QB18. For a guy who notched a six-TD game and whose ceiling tops out at 43.5 fantasy points, that’s disrespectful. Trubisky also benefits from a receiving corps that’s returning all its starters from last season.
Anthony Miller Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Enter Anthony Miller, who scored seven TDs in his rookie campaign despite an 11.3-percent (No. 111) target share. His eight red zone targets ranked second among Bears WRs – Allen Robinson had 12. The second-rounder from Memphis with an 80th-percentile College Dominator rating may be due for TD regression, but figures to see an increased snap share and more chances to convert.
Carolina: Cam Newton/Curtis Samuel
Cam Newton’s offseason shoulder surgery, coupled with the Panthers drafting Will Grier, drove his ADP down to QB9. He’s two years removed from an overall QB2 finish, has two talented young pass-catchers at his disposal and plays behind an offensive line that ranked inside the top-10 in pass protection in 2018 according to Football Outsiders. He’s also coming off his most efficient season in terms of completion percentage (67.9). A true rushing QB, he ranked in the top-five at the position in 2018 with 101 (No. 2) carries, 488 (No. 4) rush yards and four (No. 5) rush TDs. He’s a lock to return top-10 value with QB1 upside.
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Despite missing the first four games of 2018 after having a procedure done on his heart, Curtis Samuel showed a nose for the end zone. His five receiving TDs ranked second on the team. He also finished inside the top-20 with 0.66 (N0. 14) fantasy points per pass route and 2.10 (No. 16) fantasy points per target. The third-year pro and former second-round pick from Ohio State has locked down the WR2 chair in the receiving corps behind D.J. Moore. That much was clear down the stretch last season when the Panthers gave Moore and Samuel run, while limiting snaps for Devin Funchess since he didn’t fit their future plans.
Once Samuel’s snap share increased, he returned WR3 value down the stretch. From Weeks 5-11 he averaged a 32-percent snap share but from Weeks 12-17 that number jumped to 83-percent. During that span, Samuel claimed the WR29 spot in PPR scoring. Yet his current ADP puts him at WR45 (124 overall). With a big target market share slice headed his direction, Samuel promises a return on investment and the potential for much more.
