RotoUnderworld Super Bowl LVI Prop Bets and Historical Fun Facts

by Chase Vernon · Prop Plays

Prop bets are becoming staples of the Super Bowl, and every year we look to have fun with some of the random ones. For example, “Will a player drop the trophy?” or “What color is the Gatorade?” However, I’m interested in the ones I can predict. So I turn to Underdog because I like the odds, and their app is easy to use. 

In 2021 we hit big with Rob Gronkowski while fading Patrick Mahomes. Some were shocked with our picks because they didn’t make sense, but with two weeks to study, we found some cheat codes. 

Each year, there are surprises. Each year you wonder, “how did I miss that?” You’ll sit there stewing as a backup running back gets two touchdowns, a drop-prone receiver comes down with nine catches, or a tight end gets not only the first two-touchdown game in ten years but the second—a year after retiring.

Let’s throw down some fun facts for Super Bowl LVI. 

Historical Fun Facts

49ers take up six of the top eight points scored on DraftKings. Three were Jerry Rice, but only Steve Young made it into the top six as a quarterback in the same year as Rice, which he did once.

Tom Brady only has finished once in the top 25 and never finished in the top 15. He has had three quarterbacks with better fantasy finishes. 

More Relevant Facts Over Recent Years

Running back James White has the highest scoring DraftKings fantasy Super Bowl of all time (50.9 points). He did so with only 29 rushing yards. 

Gronkowski is the only player over the past ten Super Bowls to have two receiving touchdowns.

As many touchdowns were caught by non-wide receivers as wide receivers over the past ten Super Bowls.   

Over the past five seasons, four running backs have finished with over 20 fantasy points. Three of the four had a receiving touchdown. Only Devonta Freeman did not, and he hit 20.1 points.

The only running back to have over 100 rushing yards with over 20 points was Damien Williams with 104. 

With those fun facts acknowledged, we can derive some fun prop bets from Underdog Fantasy and help you win some money. 

Super Bowl Prop Bets

Contrary to the league as a whole, Super Bowls haven’t changed much over the past five from the previous five. Therefore, to keep things simple – and prevent me from boring you – I will be using a five-year sample size, keeping the examples relevant. 

Matthew Stafford Over/Under 20.5 Fantasy Points
OR: Joe Burrow Over/Under 18.5 Fantasy Points

Three of the past five Super Bowls have hit over 50 points. The six quarterbacks hit over 18 fantasy points in every one of those games. However, four of the top five quarterbacks have been on the winning team, and the lowest of the four was Tom Brady with 19.8. You could take both and feel good the other will get there; however, I am absolutely taking the quarterback on who I will bet is on the winning team. 

The conundrum hits when I realize if the Bengals are likely to keep pace with the Rams, Matthew Stafford has to turn the ball over, dampening his fantasy day. However, it will keep him passing. My Concern for Stafford lies in what happened to Brady in 2020.

The Buccaneers constantly put pressure on Patrick Mahomes and the beat-up Chiefs offensive line. As a result, the Bucs did not need to pass after they commanded a sizable lead. It was the only time a quarterback on the winning team had fewer than 30 passing attempts. The Rams will have three running backs who they could rotate, allowing Stafford to cruise to a victory if they mount a sizeable lead.

For the reason above, I will have one bet where I take the under on both. However, if Joe Burrow hits the 18.5 point mark, the Bengals will compete. On the other side, if you think the Bengals win, Burrow is no doubt responsible. Take the OVER on the quarterback you have winning.

Matthew Stafford Over/Under 2.5 Rushing Attempts

This one is simple. Punch the OVER on 2.5 rushing attempts. During the playoffs, D.J. Reader has been neutralized, only getting four pressures with no sacks. The Bengals have allowed at least three rushing attempts in five of the past seven games, and Stafford has done the same. 

Cam Akers Over/Under 64.5 Rushing Yards
AND: Over/Under 16 Attempts

I was hesitant at first as the Bengals allow a 12-percent (No. 20) Explosive Run Rate, but after Sean McVay referenced using the hot hand, I feel much more confident. I know to never trust McVay, but there are several red flags with Cam Akers. 

The first is history; Teams don’t spend two weeks drawing up run plays. This is when the coaches get to scheme up their brilliance. Over the past five Super Bowls, only two running backs have hit 16 rushing attempts, while only five have conquered 64.5 yards. All five have scored a touchdown, so I might feel more comfortable taking the 12.5 fantasy points instead of the 64.5 yards if you take the over. You’d have more avenues to get there with the receiving game than 64.5 rushing yards, and Akers has seen 11 red zone opportunities since returning in just four games.

The other red flags revolve around the other running backs taking work away, Akers fumbling in three of his last seven games, and coming off a should injury in the NFC Championship Game. Also worth noting, he hasn’t hit above 55 yards since returning. Hit the UNDER on Akers rushing yards and attempts.

Side note: I’m also taking the under on the receiving yards on Akers, but if one pops up with Sony Michel, I’m taking the OVER. The plays shouldn’t call much for receiving work by running backs, but Michel has taken over that role after trying to give it to Akers. Michel is the better blocker but still runs routes so if they come out with a low line, take it. 

Joe Mixon Over/Under 26.5 Receiving Yards

I love the OVER for Joe Mixon‘s receiving yards. Burrow discovered Mixon’s abilities as defenses started to drop back coverages. Mixon now has five straight games over 26.5 and faces the Rams with a 5.7 (No. 22) DOCE Score. The Rams allow teams to beat them underneath to not give up the big play, resulting in screens and dump-offs. This is a lock.   

Cooper Kupp Over/Under Longest Reception 31.5 Yards
Odell Beckham Over/Under Longest Reception 22.5 Yards

Almost a smash, but something is misleading. Cooper Kupp has 15 receptions in 20 games over 31.5 yards, but nine come in four games. I’m still taking the OVER. 

The Bengals have allowed a 9-percent (No. 25) Explosive Passing Rate, and they have been beaten for 32 or more yards in the air on 19 occasions. I will also have the over on Odell Beckham’s longest reception for the same reason, but I won’t have both in the same lineup. 

Cooper Kupp Over/Under 20.5 Fantasy Points

I firmly believe we will see the first wide receiver since Greg Jennings in 2011 haul in two touchdowns during the Super Bowl. I still like Kendall Blanton, but without Tyler Higbee, Cooper Kupp should have far more red-zone-designed plays. With two touchdowns, you don’t need a massive performance in the air, which is why I will pair combinations of Kupp’s OVER in fantasy points with the other receiving option’s overs in yards. 

Odell Beckham especially stands out because his Over/Under on fantasy points is 11.65. Don’t take the over if you’re taking the over on Kupp’s points. In HPPR, you would need a touchdown with three receptions and 42 yards. It’s very much so in the realm of possibilities, but 50-percent of the time he has hit over 20 points, he’s done so with two touchdowns. He has never had a two-touchdown game when Beckham gets in the end zone. Kupp has also only scored 20 points 33-percent of the time Beckham has a touchdown.

Odds don’t look great.

If Beckham doesn’t get a touchdown, those three receptions for 42 yards turn into seven receptions for 82. You already hit the over on the yards. Why not just take the yards and leave the fantasy points since you can only place one bet on a player?

Ja’Marr Chase Over/Under 6.0 Receptions

Yes, Jalen Ramsey could shadow Ja’Marr Chase. However, Ramsey occasionally struggles with speed and double moves due to jumping routes. Wouldn’t it make more sense to play Ramsey on Tee Higgins and double Chase? Maybe this is just me making sense and not thinking about how they actually coach the team, but regardless. The team will find ways to get the ball in his hands. 

I don’t even hate the Over/Under on three rushing yards. 

I’m taking the OVER on the six receptions – not another Chase bet – for a couple of reasons. The first is there’s a chance the use him closer to the line of scrimmage and let him do work with the ball in his hands. The second is the other ones make little sense to me. 

The Rams don’t allow receivers to beat them deep. Of the 31 passing plays which went over 28 yards, only 14 were to receivers further than 15 yards downfield. So if he busts a big reception, it’s likely a screen or a route closer to the line of scrimmage, which means he’s being used underneath and could easily grab six receptions. 

As for the 15.5 fantasy points, Chase has only hit above it once without a touchdown—Week 16 against the Ravens, where he squeaked by with 16. There’s an Over/Under 0.5 touchdowns you can choose instead. Even if he gets the touchdown, you still need 9.5 points. So you’re counting on five receptions for 70 yards when there is 80.5 Over/Under on yards. Might as well take the yards or receptions.

To sum it up, you need the over on the touchdowns with the receptions and yards almost getting there. I’d rather wager on one of those events happening rather than all three. 

Tyler Boyd Over/Under 7.5 Fantasy Points

Of all the bets, this is my favorite. Tyler Boyd has hit over 7.5 fantasy points in 57.9-percent of his games on the season and he’s getting a dream matchup with a team who will need to use their tight ends and running backs to help block on occasion. He’s typically the third read but playing underneath against the rams is a dream scenario. 

Just last week, the Rams gave up 13.8 points to the slot. 

If the Rams focus on protecting against the deep ball and stopping the run, Boyd could have a field day against David Long Jr. and Eric Weddle. I have the OVER in north of 50-percent of my pick’ems for the Super Bowl.