For most season long fantasy leagues, we have passed the halfway point. The season charges on into Week 8, and we have an interesting slate to breakdown for daily fantasy football. PlayerProfiler will be pumping out articles all week to help you put together the best lineups you can. The aim of this article is to utilize advanced stats and metrics to identify stacking opportunities in those lineups. As a reminder, a stack is when fantasy gamers roster the quarterback and one or more wide receivers from the same NFL team. Stacking has become an essential tactic in roster construction and has been shown to increase the upside of rosters through positive correlation of fantasy point scoring.
Week 7 Review
The highlight of Week 7 was the Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen recommendation. They made up the featured stack of the week and delivered monumentally. Both were popular options at above 10-percent ownership, but not the most popular at their positions.
Week 7 Stacking Results
In a frenetic, back and forth game Herbert delivered over 40 DraftKings fantasy points while Allen finished with 25.5 points. Despite not even connecting for a touchdown, the pair ended up as top performers and huge values.
Matt Ryan and Julio Jones were the second stack last week. They were lesser owned and had moderately successful days. Ryan finished above 20 points, and Jones hit 17.7 points. Could have been a bigger day, but it didn’t crush lineups.
The last stack became more worrisome as the week went on and the forecast showed snow in Denver. Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill presented a way to stack the high-powered Kansas City offense at a cheaper price than we’re accustomed to getting. The weather may have been a problem, but the real killer was two non-offensive touchdowns scored by the Chiefs. That prevented the offense from running the typical amount of plays and put the Game Script in a spot where they didn’t need to throw when they did have the ball. Mahomes finished with a disappointing 12 points. Hill did find the end zone, so his 17.5 points were decent.
Russell Wilson & Tyler Lockett
To kick off this week, let’s go back to what worked last week. Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett melted faces on Sunday night in Week 7. The Let Russ Cook movement in combination with a deteriorating defense has created the perfect storm of fantasy production in Seattle. Russ has been a top 5 QB in four of his six games played and never outside the top ten. His efficiency has been otherworldly as evidenced by his 18 (No. 1 among qualified QBs) Money Throws, +50.2 (No. 1) Production Premium, and 129.1 (No. 1) True Passer Rating.
The efficiency comes as no surprise given Wilson’s career to date, but the sustained volume does. In terms of Team Pass Plays per Game, Seattle has gone from No. 22 in 2019 to No. 9 this year. That volume unlocks a previously unseen ceiling. Also worth noting, the rushing floor is still there as well, with Wilson averaging 39.5 (No. 5) rushing yards per game.
Check out Russell Wilson on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
For this week, we’re recommending pairing Wilson with Tyler Lockett. The reason for this is not because he blew up last week, going over 50 DraftKings points. However, last week was telling in terms of usage. The Cardinals chose to shadow D.K. Metcalf with their shutdown corner Patrick Peterson. As a result, the Seahawks funneled targets to the other receiving weapons, namely Lockett. That brings us to this week where a similar situation presents itself. PlayerProfiler’s No. 2-ranked cornerback Jason Verrett is set to line up against Metcalf. Verrett is top 5 in the league in Coverage Rating, Passer Rating Allowed, and Fantasy Points Allowed per Target/per Game. The Seahawks showed last week that they won’t test troublesome CB matchups. As a result, we expect Lockett to thrive again.
This game features a high point total (53) in what should be a game to stack. Banking on fantasy gamers being hesitant to chase the points from last week, Lockett should be relatively lower owned than his solid projection and lower price would naturally indicate.
Joe Burrow & Tee Higgins
Joe Burrow has been the most popular recommended option in this series over the course of the season. As long as he continues to be priced down by DraftKings, we’ll keep going to him in positive matchups. This game projects to be among the highest scoring games on the slate with both the Bengals and Titans ranking among the top 10 teams in Pace of Play.
Burrow is the QB12 by price on DraftKings despite leading the league with 293 pass attempts and logging 32 (No. 7) carries. Facing a barrage of sacks and pressures from his offensive line, he continues to look downfield, where his 347.3 Air Yards per Game rank No. 3 in the league. Those deep targets lead to big plays and, most critically for our purposes, fantasy points.
Joe Burrow Passing Opportunity & Productivity Metrics
Those Air Yards are why Tee Higgins continues to be a strong play week in and week out. His 10 (No. 12) Deep Targets demonstrate his valuable role in the Bengals offense. He’s getting more involved each week, notching season highs in Snap Share and Routes Run in Week 7. Tyler Boyd has been great this year out of the slot, but Higgins is the value play this week. Given the game state, feel free to go with a heavy game stack playing both Higgins and Boyd, running it back with one or two Titans players as well.
Ryan Tannehill & A.J. Brown
Speaking of Titans players, another option in play this week is stacking Ryan Tannehill with A.J. Brown. We already noted how this is a game we want exposure to given the Pace of Play of both teams and the Vegas point totals.
Despite all the warnings of regression over the offseason, Tannehill has seen little dropoff in efficiency this year. As expected on a team with Derrick Henry, the passing volume is below average. The efficiency in the passing game has kept Tannehill afloat for fantasy. His 33.8 Attempts per Game rank No. 20, but his 82.2 Total QBR and 0.59 Fantasy Points per Dropback both rank No. 4. In a game set to feature a high number of snaps, we’re expecting solid efficiency with a bump in volume. A.J. Brown is the natural stack companion to Tannehill.
A.J. Brown 2020 Game Logs
Since his return three weeks ago, Brown has been a top 12 WR each week. He’s averaging eight targets per game, and his 35.8-percent Air Yard Share over the last three weeks would rank No. 10. His game-breaking Yards After the Catch have been on display again this season, where his 36.75 YAC per Game ranks No. 6 among WRs with 20 or more targets. The Air Yards and YAC combination give Brown a high floor and ceiling on a weekly basis before we even take touchdown equity into account, and he’s had four in the last three weeks.
Both are performing at a high level, in what projects to be a great game state, and are priced outside the top five options. Ownership is something to monitor, but assuming they don’t become full chalk, make sure to include Titans stacks among your rosters this week.
