PlayerProfiler is home to award winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out. Below, Joel Ybarra breaks down some sleeper QBs that will elevate their offenses in 2024.
Every season, fantasy drafters shy away from offenses with shaky quarterback situations. And every season, there are offenses that break out – the QB performs better than expected and facilitates production for the offensive weapons. Quarterback play is the central driving force that makes an offense’s weapons overachieve with regard to ADP. In 2024, C.J. Stroud made an otherwise middling group of pass catchers in Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Noah Brown each outdo their ADPs by at least 40 spots. Before the season, drafters were unsure about the talent of the receiving corps and no one knew Stroud would arrive so quickly as a passer at the NFL level.
Perceived shaky or unknown QB situations tank the value of the pass catchers. That is a place where fantasy gamers can take advantage of depressed ADP values – targeting offenses with underestimated or uncertain QB situations. Let’s look at some of the most underrated QBs whose pass catchers’ represent some of the best ADP values in summer drafts.
Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew | Las Vegas
The Las Vegas offense was not good in 2023, and yet, Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers both finished as top-24 WRs in fantasy PPG. Adams finished as the WR15 and Meyers as the WR24 (Meyers was drafted as the WR58 on Underdog). That is saying something considering how analysts viewed the quarterback play in Vegas. But with Aidan O’Connell as the starter (Weeks 9 to 18), Adams was the WR11 in PPG and Meyers was WR30.
In Indianapolis, Anthony Richardson played less than four full games, which meant Gardner Minshew was the starter for the majority of the season. With the fifth-year QB under center, both Michael Pittman and Josh Downs beat their ADPs handily. Pittman landed at WR14 in PPG after being drafted as the WR39 on Underdog. Downs posted a WR51 season after being drafted as the WR101.
Minshew/O’Connell will be the Raiders signal callers in 2024, throwing to Adams, Meyers and the 13th overall pick in the Draft, Brock Bowers. Adams is priced fairly at WR11 on Underdog, but Bowers’ stock has fallen since the Draft. He is going at pick 101 (ninth round), down from pick 77 pre-Draft. Drafters are knocking the standout tight end prospect because of the landing spot and the perception of Minshew and O’Connell as backup-level QB talents, but both of those QBs facilitated production for their weapons last season. Bowers is a value, as is Meyers. Meyers is available in the 11th round (WR53).
Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers
It is no secret Justin Herbert’s top pass-catching targets, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, have struggled to be available the last two seasons. Josh Palmer, DeAndre Carter and Gerald Everett were the top snap-earners two seasons ago. Last season, the top two snap-earners after Keenan Allen were Quentin Johnston and Everett. Even so, Herbert’s pass-catchers (WRs and TEs) have been in the top half of the league in fantasy scoring (No. 15 in 2022 and No. 7 last season).
The Chargers weapons are very affordable in Underdog drafts right now. Ladd McConkey has the highest ADP at WR54 (sixth round). Palmer is next at WR61 (11th round) and Johnston is at WR66 (12th round). Two or even all three of the Chargers receivers are going to beat their ADPs with Herbert under center. Drafters project the Chargers to field a ground-and-pound run-heavy offense with Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman steering the ship, but the team did not exactly add a bell cow back to lean on. The seemingly fragile J.K. Dobbins and grinder back Gus Edwards top the depth chart. Herbert is the best player on the team, and it would be malpractice not to run the offense through him. Also keep in mind Hayden Hurst and Will Dissly as decent last-round dart throws at TE.
Justin Fields | Pittsburgh
By all appearances, Justin Fields was bad in Chicago in 2023. He looks to be relegated to backup QB status, and his dynasty value has tanked accordingly. Yet his top two offensive weapons in 2023 outdid their ADPs by significant deltas. DJ Moore was drafted as the WR20 coming into last season and finished as the WR9 in PPG. Cole Kmet was drafted as the TE16 and finished at TE9.
Keep an eye on the Bears pass catchers as they get an upgrade at QB, but also keep an eye on the Steelers pass-catchers’ ADPs. Currently, George Pickens is going as the WR31 (fourth round) on Underdog. Roman Wilson is going as the WR73 (14th round) and Pat Freiermuth the TE16 (12th round) on Underdog. If Fields gets a shot as the starter in Pittsburgh, he will facilitate for the weapons. Drafters are scared off by what Arthur Smith did to the weapons in Atlanta, but keep in mind the quarterback play had a lot to do with the Falcons’ offensive woes last season. There’s a chance Russell Wilson might even help the Steelers’ pass catchers return value on their ADPs. The uncertainty at QB is keeping the weapons’ values suppressed.
Bryce Young | Carolina
Bryce Young had a nightmarish rookie season, due in large part to his supporting cast. His top three pass catchers were 33-year-old Adam Thielen, and paltry producers DJ Chark and Jonathan Mingo. Given the talent and uncertainty at QB, the Panthers receivers’ ADPs were understandably down coming into the season. Thielen was the highest-drafted – at WR61 on Underdog. Despite the lack of pass-catching talent, Young helped Thielen to a WR26 finish (13.6 PPG). The veteran slot receiver was WR9 through the first nine weeks of last season.
Young now gets an upgrade in the offensive system with new head coach Dave Canales and upgraded weaponry in Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette. It’s a similar ADP story this year with Johnson going as WR40 (seventh round) on Underdog and Legette as the WR68 (14th round). The offense is going to blossom under Canales’s care and Johnson and Legette will wind up being values.
Drake Maye | New England
Last season, Kendrick Bourne and Hunter Henry were the top two WR or TE fantasy points scorers for the Patriots. Bourne beat his ADP (WR97) by 62 spots and came in as the WR35 in PPG. Henry beat his ADP (TE25) and ended up at TE16 in PPG. That is notable simply because the Patriots offense was bad with Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe splitting duties as starters, and the team just got an upgrade at QB.
None of the Patriots pass-catchers were being drafted higher than WR55 last season. Even with the QB upgrade this season, the pass-catchers are being drafted even later. The top one is Henry, who is being drafted in the 14th round (TE20) of Underdog drafts. DeMario Douglas is the top WR off the board at WR74, in the 17th round. Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker are right behind him at WR75 and WR81, respectively.
Keep in mind Drake Maye was the No. 3 overall pick in the Draft, and the consensus QB2 in the class. If Maye is even passable as a starter, multiple Patriots weapons are going to return value on current ADPs, possibly in a league-winning way. Take your pick(s) in the late rounds – Polk, Douglas, Henry, even Kendrick Bourne – and profit.
Ascending from the Depths
We tend to think of ascending offenses as those that are going to be the top offenses in the league. Drafters are already aware of offenses like the Falcons, who are getting a QB in Kirk Cousins who can feed the top-tier weapons already on the roster. Fantasy gamers should target weapons from those premium offenses in early rounds, but some other offenses will be ascending from lower on the totem pole. ADPs are depressed when fantasy gamers don’t know how the offense will come together. That is yet another edge we can have in all forms of fantasy football – late-round values on offenses whose QBs and pass-catchers find some chemistry during the coming season.
Read Joel’s breakdown of an ascending Bears offense here: Bears Draft Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze | Buy into An Ascending Chicago Offense in Dynasty and Redraft
