In all fantasy formats – Underdog, FFPC and Redraft – we are looking to leverage ADP to our advantage. We win fantasy championships by drafting sure studs at the top of drafts and then filling out our rosters with late round ADP values. To manipulate ADP in such a way, it is important to understand the things that push ADP down. ADP is built off perception. Uncertainty, ambiguity, unknowns and negative offseason narratives are all factors that act upon ADP and provide value deltas. We should target those players with suppressed ADPs, especially when there are other real factors that will encourage production for them in the coming season. Below, we go through the big ADP wins from 2023 at running back, identifying what suppressed ADPs and led to significant value gains. Then we identify some deeply discounted RBs in 2024 drafts.
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2023 ADP Values at Running Back
Alvin Kamara | ADP: RB26, PPG Finish: RB3
Alvin Kamara‘s draft value was suppressed in 2023 because he was coming into the season expecting a suspension for his involvement in an offseason fight. The eight-year veteran, though, has finished in the top-10 at the running back position in PPG every season of his career except the 2022 season when he was the RB13 in PPG. He returned to prominence in 2023, with an RB3 finish.
Raheem Mostert | ADP: RB38, PPG Finish: RB4, De’Von Achane | ADP: RB43, PPG Finish: RB5
Miami had the most ambiguous backfield in the league in 2023. You could have taken your pick of Raheem Mostert or Devon Achane. The Miami backfield ran hot, producing two top-5 RB finishes. You can still get the ambiguity discount for Mostert this season (especially with the addition of rookie Jaylen Wright). Mostert is at RB28 on Underdog and RB26 on FFPC while Achane is up at RB7 on Underdog and RB10 on FFPC.
Breece Hall | ADP: RB13, PPG Finish: RB6
Breece Hall’s ADP was suppressed purely by injury concerns coming into 2023. Unsurprisingly based on his talent, however, Hall was a mega-producer once he was back to a full complement of snaps. He was RB3, RB4 and RB7 in Weeks 5, 6 and 7, then RB1 and RB3 in Weeks 16 and 17, winning fantasy gamers playoff matchups.
Rachaad White | ADP: RB27, PPG Finish: RB10
Rachaad White‘s ADP was depressed in 2023, due to drafters due to drafters’ reticence about a Tampa Bay offense helmed by Baker Mayfield. White did not have any real backfield competition after the departure of Leonard Fournette, but drafters projected that Chase Edmonds and undrafted rookie Sean Tucker would eat into White’s work.
White caught 64 passes and scored nine touchdowns on his way to a top-10 finish.
James Conner | ADP: RB28, PPG Finish: RB13
James Conner is a perennial value at RB. He keeps aging (further depressing his value) and yet, he also keeps producing. He seems like a grizzled veteran, but he was only 28 years old in 2023 and was top-10 in True Yards Per Carry (4.7, No. 9), Juke Rate (24.7-percent, No. 8) and Breakaway Run Rate (6.3-percent, No. 7). Conner is once again discounted: RB27 on Underdog and RB21 at the FFPC.
Isiah Pacheco | ADP: RB30, PPG Finish: RB14
Isiah Pacheco was down at RB30 coming into the 2023 season after sharing a backfield with Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2022 and finishing as the RB44 in PPG that season. Pacheco came in as the RB14 in PPG in 2022 after earning a 72.4-percent (No. 8) Opportunity Share and catching 44 passes.
2024 Deep ADP Discounts at Running Back
Alvin Kamara | Underdog ADP: RB17 (76 overall), FFPC ADP: RB16 (52 overall)
Drafters are fading Kamara again, probably because of the presence of Kendre Miller, who has yet to prove he is a threat to taking a significant portion of the backfield work, and because of familiarity fatigue with the veteran back, who is a perennial RB1 in fantasy.
Kamara is no longer an elite tackle evader (No. 47, 14.9-percent Juke Rate in 2023), but he has not bested RB40 in that metric since 2020 when he was No. 2 with a 32.2-percent mark. His real value is in the passing game. He was No. 2 in RB receptions last season and No. 4 among backs with 1.73 YPRR. Derek Carr is a dumpoff specialist.
James Conner | Underdog ADP: RB27 (94 overall), FFPC ADP: RB21 (73 overall)
Conner’s value is once again depressed because of his age and excitement about the addition of rookie Trey Benson. Conner is seen as injury prone, but he has played in at least 10 games in every season of his career and at least 13 the last three seasons. The dropoff will come at some point, but he is available multiple rounds later than fellow veteran and bell cow-capable backs Joe Mixon and Kamara. Conner has been far more efficient than those two with his touches.
Raheem Mostert | Underdog ADP: RB28 (96 overall), FFPC ADP: RB27 (86 overall)
Devon Achane was more efficient on his touches (1.36 Fantasy Points Per Touch, No. 1) than Mostert, but the veteran was no slouch (1.11 Fantasy Points Per Touch, No. 4). Mostert was also No. 7 with a 24.8-percent Juke Rate and No. 6 with a 6.7-percent Breakaway Run Rate in 2023. If he continues to split backfield touches, he is again a steal at ADP.
Devin Singletary | Underdog ADP: RB32 (111 overall), FFPC ADP: RB32 (97 overall)
Brian Daboll loves Devin “Motor” Singletary. When they were in Buffalo together, Singletary never had less than a 56-percent Opportunity Share, playing ahead of Frank Gore and then Zack Moss.
The Giants let go of Saquon Barkley in free agency and signed Singletary to a three-year, $16.5 million deal. Singletary has even less backfield competition in New York than he did in Buffalo with only fifth round backs Eric Gray and Tyrone Tracy behind him. The latter is new to the running back position. He is a converted wide receiver.
Austin Ekeler | Underdog ADP: RB38 (127 overall), FFPC ADP: RB31 (95 overall)
Austin Ekeler is just one year removed from an RB1 overall finish and suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 1 last season. The consensus is Ekeler has hit the age cliff, but he was recovering from a high ankle sprain suffered in Week 1 last season. That explains his inefficiency as a rusher, but his real value comes in the pass game. Even in a down season, he was No. 12 in RB receptions in 2023 and No. 10 in YPRR with 1.55.
J.K. Dobbins | Underdog ADP: RB56 (182 overall), FFPC ADP: RB49 (139 overall)
J.K. Dobbins is free in drafts and is part of a highly ambiguous backfield in L.A. with Gus Edwards, Kimani Vidal and Isaiah Spiller. It would not be a shock if any of those four emerged as the leader in backfield touches by the end of 2024. Dobbins has the most upside if he can return to some semblance of health.
See Joel’s ADP deals at QB here: Deep Quarterback ADP Values | Underdog, FFPC, Redraft Fantasy 2024
