Welcome to Sophomore Projections: Garrett Wilson! Now that the 2022 season is over, it’s time to turn right back to drafting for next season. The period between the Super Bowl and Free Agency is the most volatile as teams and roles are not complete until players sign, and rookies are drafted in the new league year. Which rising sophomores are expected to see role decreases and fall in value or see role increases and rise in value after the new league year starts? Find out in this series, projecting the studs and duds in their sophomore years.
Rookie Year Player Breakdown
As Offensive Rookie of the Year, Garrett Wilson was the ultimate rookie stud. He appeared in all 17 games for the Jets, finishing with 1103 (No. 14) receiving yards on 83 (No. 16) receptions and a 24.9-percent (No. 21) Target Share. However, he did not get the scoring production expected, with 4 (No. 37) touchdowns on 19 (No. 9) Red Zone Targets. Wilson also had the (mis)fortune of getting QB play from Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White, and Chris Streveler.
Wilson also has the draft capital to back up his established production. Selected No. 10 overall, he has the physical profile and college production to find continued success in the NFL. As a rookie, Wilson led Jets receivers in nearly every receiving production and usage metric and has established himself as a top receiving option in that offense.
Future Role & Production
It’s hard to imagine Wilson with a worse quarterback situation than he had his rookie season. Chris Streveler was the only Jets QB with a completion percentage over 60-percent, and he only threw 15 passes. The Jets combined threw for 15 passing touchdowns with 14 interceptions. Rumors are that New York is trying to get a veteran QB. Whether that’s Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr, or even Jacoby Brissett, it’s hard to see Wilson with a worse QB carousel than he had as a rookie.
Garrett Wilson
✅No. 6 – Targets
✅No. 9 – Red Zone Targets
✅No. 14 – Target Rate Vs. Man Coverage#nfl #football #TakeFlight pic.twitter.com/gwJoqubQ37— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) January 11, 2023
Wilson already led the Jets’ receiving corps with 24.9-percent (No. 21) Target Share. Unless New York adds an established alpha receiver, he is slated to be the No. 1 WR in the offense. In terms of the overall fantasy landscape, Wilson saw WR2 usage with WR3 production. Expect the production to meet the usage this season with a QB improvement and a full season already under his belt.
Value Diagnosis
Ultimately, Garrett Wilson is a projected sophomore stud and a guy you want to buy now before his value takes off even more in the new league year. He is currently the No. 5 WR on PlayerProfiler’s Dynasty Rankings, over guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.K. Metcalf. On KeepTradeCut, Wilson’s Dynasty value is already around the values of Jaylen Waddle, Jonathan Taylor, and a 2023 early 1st round rookie pick. Hold him if you have him and get him if you can deal any of those aforementioned assets for him. However, if you find yourself giving up CeeDee Lamb, Justin Fields (SuperFlex), the 1.01 (Bijan Robinson), or players around those values, take a step back and hold on with what you have.
In redraft and Best Ball, Wilson has a good chance to overtake receivers like Tyler Lockett, Chris Godwin, and Michael Pittman in production this upcoming season. Draft him over those guys and others in a similar value range in seasonal leagues. Seize the opportunity and target Wilson before his value skyrockets next month.
