It’s time for Start Sit Week 16 in Fantasy Football! Which players should you be starting this week, and which players should you consider benching? We will cover it all in this weekly article!
Every week of the NFL season, fantasy gamers juggle players to insert into lineups at each position. Are you questioning which players face easy matchups and which players face tougher paths to production? You are in the right place! For seasonal leagues, DFS, and more, this week’s must-start and must-sit picks can give you some guidance on setting your lineups.
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Quarterback Start Sit Week 16
Start: Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield continued his hot stretch against the Chargers last week, finishing inside of the top 10, scoring quarterbacks for the third time in four weeks. This matchup also marked the fifth contest where he finished with 28 or more fantasy points. The former No. 1 Draft pick is locked in right now, and his go-to target in Mike Evans is as motivated as ever, inching closer to another 1,000-yard season. He now gets to feast against a battered, bruised, and overall tired Dallas defense. They’ll be missing plenty of key playmakers, including star cornerback Trevon Diggs.
There’s no question about the quality of this matchup, and there’s no question about the quality of the Bucs’ offense. Expect another 20-point performance from Mayfield in what could be an electric shootout.
Honorable Mentions (Starts): Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold, Caleb Williams
Sit: Tua Tagovailoa
Tua struggled to start the season, and despite some good performances in between then and last week’s dud, it’s clear he is still seeing ghosts in the pocket. Per Fantasy Points Data, Tua is checking down from clean pockets at a nine-percent rate this year, and that number jumped to 21-percent last week. It’s tough for him to stay in the pocket and deliver a downfield throw to one of his receivers. As such, the Dolphins have had to rely on check-downs and designed touches.
Here’s an interesting stat I dug up in the @FantasyPtsData Suite yesterday:
C.J. Stroud took a check down on 18% of his non-pressured dropbacks in Week 15.
Spooked szn out here for him (and Tua Tagovailoa) in 2024 👻 pic.twitter.com/uwtswmA33t
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 17, 2024
The 49ers have been very successful against quarterbacks this season, allowing the thrid-fewest pass attempts and fewest passing yards per game in the NFL. They control the pace of the game and slow down your best assets. After Tua was clearly rattled and committed four turnovers last week, Mike McDaniel will likely opt to slow the game down for him and create more scripted touches. This would likely take away some deep shots and potentially limit his ceiling in a game that’s already expected to be low-scoring.
Honorable Mentions (Sits): Russell Wilson, Michael Penix Jr., Bryce Young
Running Back Start Sit Week 16
Start: Isiah Pacheco
It’s been a slow start to Pacheco’s return from injury, as he’s yet to crack 50-percent of the Chiefs’ snaps or 10 fantasy points. Further, the matchup against the Texans doesn’t look great on paper. However, we discover a better outlook when we look deeper. In games within one score, Texans allow 14.6 fantasy points per game to leading backs. Look to Tony Pollard, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, and James Cook as examples of this.
Despite his melodramatic nature and likely overplaying his injury, Patrick Mahomes is still likely hobbled in some way. Against the Texans’ pass rush, Pacheco will be needed more to help as a blocker. Further, the Chiefs may opt to dedicate more opportunities to the ground game, especially if they go up early. If you’ve made it this far with Pacheco on your roster, this is the week you’ve been waiting for.
Honorable Mentions (Starts): Rico Dowdle, Najee Harris, Joe Mixon
Sit: Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Last week was peculiar for the rookie breakout, as his teammate Devin Singletary racked up the most opportunities he’s seen since ceding the starting job. The journeyman Singletary has also found the end zone in two of the last three games. This is the last thing Tracy managers needed. High-value touches are already tough to come by in an offense as bad as this. Now, Singletary is inching his way back into the primary goal-line role.
Further, Tracy is dealing with an ankle injury that’s limiting him in practice. The Giants likely see long-term value in Tracy, and there is little point in forcing him into too many touches. Despite the solid matchup against the Falcons, I’m staying away from Tracy. The stakes are too high to take a bust.
Honorable Mentions (Sits): Zach Charbonnet, D’Andre Swift, Kendre Miller
Wide Receiver Start Sit Week 16
Start: Jauan Jennings
What a year for Jauan Jennings. What started as a funny catchphrase in “3rd & Jauan” to describe his reliability turned into a very real mindset of “F*** it, Jauan is down there somewhere.” Not only is he a big part of this offense, but his 27-percent target share is 14th among receivers this year. Additionally, he has a solid share of the team’s air yards and red zone targets. The icing on top is how effectively he’s produced, churning out 2.4 (No. 4) Formation-Adjusted Yards per Route Run.
Can’t tell if that’s Jauan Jennings or 49ers legend Randy Moss.
📺: #SFvsLAR on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/4yn3FZbMTA— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
This week, lines up against a Miami secondary that’s allowing 7.5 yards per team pass attempt and over 230 passing yards per game over their last three games (Team Rankings). Both of those metrics land them inside of the top 10 in terms of friendliest pass defenses. The matchup is solid, particularly for a top dawg like Jennings. With his level of opportunity, Jennings should be in your starting lineup this week.
Honorable Mentions (Starts): George Pickens, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison
Sit: Jerry Jeudy
Jerry Jeudy has been awesome since Jameis Winston took over the starting QB position for the Browns, churning out 70+ receiving yards in six of the last seven weeks, including three games over 100 yards. However, all of this means nothing. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is now slated to be the starter this week. Unfortunately, he is the very opposite of Winston. Winston looks to make big plays and loves pushing the ball downfield and into tight windows. Thompson-Robinson, on the other hand, can barely throw the ball or process a defense. Having DTR under center will yield many more check-downs and short-yardage throws, as well as a massive decrease in pass attempts as a whole.
Give Jeudy his flowers for getting you to this point, but you simply cannot start any Browns players under the leadership of DTR. It is far too risky with how high the stakes are at this point in the season.
Honorable Mentions (Sits): Xavier Worthy, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Pittman Jr.
Tight End Start Sit Week 16
Tight ends are perhaps the most disgusting they’ve ever been for fantasy football. If you have one of these guys, you’re probably looking to just start them every week and hope for the best:
If not, consider these options:
Start: Brenton Strange
Brenton Strange has a glorious matchup this week. After recording 11 receptions on 12 targets last week, Strange is in a prime spot to absolutely torch the Raiders and push his fantasy managers to a championship. The Raiders allow the sixth-most yards per target, the fourth-most receiving yards per game, the fourth-most touchdowns per game, and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season. Considering three of their games have been against the Broncos and Chargers, this is even more impressive. They’ve allowed some huge spike weeks as well to the likes of Travis Kelce, Mike Gesicki, and Jonnu Smith. With most managers being in a tough spot at the tight end position, Strange’s projected opportunity and matchup put him in a prime role this week.
Honorable Mentions (Starts): Hunter Henry, Pat Freiermuth, T.J. Hockenson
Sit: Jake Ferguson
I thought that, when he returned from injury, Ferguson would slot back in as the number-two target in the Cowboys’ offense and see enough volume to be reliable in fantasy going forward. I was dead wrong. He’s been much closer than Norm McDonald’s “Turd Ferguson” character on Saturday Night Live. Over the past two weeks, he’s collected just 10 targets on 36 routes for a total of 10.7 fantasy points. That’s … not good. Particularly because the Cowboys’ offense has actually found a lot of success over the past two weeks. The run game is clicking, and CeeDee Lamb is being fed, but Ferguson is still on the outside looking in. The matchup against Tampa is lovely, but I can’t get behind trusting Ferguson to get me to a championship.
Honorable Mentions (Sits): Chigoziem Okonkwo, Kyle Pitts, Dalton Schultz
Set Your Lineups!
It is time to set lineups! Fire up those fingers and plug in your productive players (and bench the sits!). Check back for weekly must-starts and must-sits based on the action that unfolds this season. Need some more options? Check out PlayerProfiler’s Upside Finder, or DM me on Twitter! It’s time again for a season full of ups and downs. Buckle up!
