Must Starts and Sits | NFL Week 3

by Matt Babich · Matchups Start/Sit

It’s time for Start Sit Week 3 in Fantasy Football! Which players should you be starting this week, and which players should you consider benching? We will cover it all in this weekly article!

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Week 2 Recap

Every week of the NFL season, fantasy gamers juggle players to insert into lineups at each position. Are you questioning which players face easy matchups and which players face tougher paths to production? You are in the right place! For seasonal leagues, DFS, and more, this week’s must start and sit picks can give you some guidance on setting your lineups.

Here’s what we learned from our hits and misses last week:

  • Baker Mayfield, as predicted, is going to be a weekly top option at quarterback.
  • Justin Herbert is a certified low-floor/low-ceiling option.
  • We need more time to understand why Jerome Ford wasn’t used last week.
  • Zack Moss is going to be a very game script dependent play.
  • Ladd McConkey is going to have very streaky usage throughout the season.
  • Drake London is not dead, manager…breathe a sigh of relief!
  • The Rams are a mess and were not prepared to play without Cooper Kupp.
  • Isaiah Likely is still the TE2 in Baltimore, but he may have more upside than Andrews.

Quarterback

Start: Geno Smith

Geno Smith is quietly the QB9 in Fantasy Points per Game through two weeks. The Ryan Grubbs offense runs through him. Smith is currently sitting No. 9 among quarterbacks in pass attempts, and the Seahawks rank No. 4 in Pass Rate Over Expected (NFELO). Missing starting running back Kenneth Walker sure helps pad the attempts, throwing 19 more times against New England in Week 2 than in Week 1. 

Seattle’s passing game found its groove against the Patriots despite the struggles to convert drives into scores. This week, against Miami, Smith finds himself against a much softer defense. The Dolphins got obliterated by the Bills last Thursday. The Bills defense made quite a few plays and took the game out of Josh Allen‘s hands. Even without Tua Tagovailoa, I expect a much more competitive effort this week from Miami.

Despite Skylar Thompson‘s shortcomings, he takes care of the ball. Thus, I expect Seattle to have a productive, efficient passing game that’s setup by dominating the field position battle. I won’t be shocked if Geno has a performance relative to Baker Mayfield‘s four touchdown effort in Week 1.

Sit: Brock Purdy

The stars are not aligning for a Brock Purdy bounce back game against the Rams. There will be no Christian McCaffrey, no Deebo Samuel, and there will be (at the very best) a banged-up George Kittle. The 49ers aren’t very deep at the playmaker position right now, and it’s likely the Niners lean on the run game and have Brock manage the game to his best. Purdy has been off to a slow start without his All-Pro running back, throwing only one touchdown despite five more attempts per game than his 2023 average.

The Rams’ secondary is susceptible to big plays and isn’t generally the matchup to fade. However, it doesn’t take as much talent to cover the hobbled 49ers corps. George Kittle, being downgraded to DNP with a hamstring this week, is becoming unlikely to suit up. This leaves Brandon Aiyuk and Jordan Mason as the only trusted playmakers. This is a situation I’d steer clear of.

Honorable Mentions (Starts): Justin Fields, Dak Prescott

Honorable Mentions (Sits): Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold

Running Back

Start: Tony Pollard

The 50/50 split talk we heard this offseason turned out to be a bunch of hooey. Tony Pollard is the true lead back of this Titans offense, and he once again has a very fantasy friendly role. He’s currently earning 17.8 (No. 6) Weighted Opportunities per Game, including a 18.5-percent (No. 5) Target Share. Now a full year removed from his lower leg injury in 2022, we’re seeing the level of efficiency as a rusher and pass catcher that we expected going into last season. 

With backfield partner Tyjae Spears also dinged up and not practicing, Pollard is currently a weekly no-questions starter. That is true this week especially, as he lines up against a Packers defense that’s allowed 206 rushing yards on 5.8 Yards per Carry to Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs thus far. Green Bay has been getting thrashed by running backs for years, and that’s not stopping now. With Will Levis‘s turnover habits, I won’t be surprised to see Tennessee pound the rock a little extra this Sunday.

Sit: Javonte Williams

The Broncos offense has been laughable to start this season, eclipsing only 482 yards of offense and scoring 26 points through two weeks. Maybe in a bell cow scenario could Williams be confidently playable, but not in this touch-share he’s succumbed to. Williams has barely eclipsed 50-percent of the backfield opportunities thus far and has only had a fantasy-relevant performance thanks to his five-catch outing last week. What you got out of Williams last week was essentially his ceiling. At this point, it’s a tough bet for any Bronco to find the end zone on a given week.

Even with the potential to catch passes while playing from behind, I have no appetite to play Williams against Tamp Bay’s defense. They’re stiff up front, so I’m not counting on any rushing production. They also have the ability to take away your primary option, which for Denver may be their running back in both phases of the game. Until we see this Broncos offense hit a higher gear, Williams is a tough start.

Honorable Mentions (Starts): D’Andre Swift, Zamir White, Zack Moss

Honorable Mentions (Sits): Najee Harris, Bucky Irving, Ty Chandler

Wide Receiver

Start: Rashid Shaheed

The Saints are truly the biggest surprise of the 2024 season thus far. With how explosive and efficient this Klint Kubiak offense is, Rashid Shaheed is a weekly starter. Shaheed has produced two straight WR2 weeks to start the season, both in very out-of-hand games. Because of this, Shaheed only has four 2nd-half opportunities this year (two rushes and two targets– all in the third quarter). His usage is bordering on elite, drawing a 24-percent (No. 27) Target Share and a 46-percent (No. 7) Air Yards Share. Showing his big-play ability early on, he leads the league in Yards per Team Pass Attempt.

Now put Shaheed against an Eagle’s secondary that’s allergic to big playmaking receivers. In Week 1, the Eagles surrendered 138 receiving yards and a score on four receptions. On Monday, Darnell Mooney had his way with CJ Gardner-Johnson to the tune of 55 yards and a touchdown. We should always target high-volume earners in offenses expected to score points, and that’s what we have here.

Sit: Terry McLaurin

Kliff Kingsbury will one day pay for his crimes, but that day will not be today. Terry McLaurin has yet to eclipse 25 receiving yards in a game, and he’s quickly approaching cut territory in shallower leagues. We knew the passing volume was going to be average, but the conservativeness of this offense has been shocking. Known deep ball threat Jayden Daniels has only thrown two passes at least 20 yards downfield, and McLaurin is at a career-worst 9.3 (No. 56) Average Depth of Target.

I think there will be better days for McLaurin, but they will be further down the road this season (I hope). Right now, it’s clear Kingsbury wants to get his new quarterback adjusted to the league with just about the simplest offense we’ve ever seen. Eventually, they’ll ramp things up and McLaruin’s 43-percent (No. 10) Air Yards Share will pay off. Against Trey Hendrickson and the Bengals, this isn’t the week to make that jump.

Honorable Mentions (Starts): Diontae Johnson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tank Dell, Ladd McConkey

Honorable Mentions (Sits): Quentin Johnston, Christian Kirk, Wan’Dale Robinson

Tight End

Start: Colby Parkinson

I know the Colby Parkinson experiment didn’t work last week, but with this position sometimes you have to make decisions you hate. After drawing five targets in a game with both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua active, Parkinson only saw two targets in Week 2. Going into that game, the Rams’ plan was to go through Cooper Kupp. With Kupp sidelined, McVay will likely draw up a more evenly distributed scheme, one where Parkinson should be at worst the third receiving option.

With tight ends, the first rule is to target those who are a top two options in their offense. We don’t really know for sure where Parkinson resides in the pecking order, but if he’s a top two option with Matt Stafford he deserves to be in starting lineups. The Rams will have to lean on the passing game to keep up with San Francisco. Given the success the Vikings found last week, we may even have a couple chances for Parkinson to score a touchdown.

Sit: Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki had quite the game last week, hauling in seven of nine targets for 91 receiving yards against the Chiefs. After finishing as the TE5 on the week, I’m ready to fade one of my favorite players in the NFL. The Chiefs had one game plan on Sunday, stop Ja’Marr Chase. That’s exactly what they did. They were fine giving up a few chunk plays here and there to Gesicki, as long as they stopped their big-ticket playmaker. Without a run game and without your number one option, a guy like Gesicki has a much more favorable outlook.

Cincinnati finds themselves in a completely different outlook against Washington, whose defense is so bad there isn’t anything the Bengals won’t be able to do. Chase is likely to have an absolute field day against this secondary, and Moss will probably rack up his fair share on the ground. Add in Tee Higgins coming back to practice and potentially suiting up on Monday, and you have yourself a scary scenario. Gesicki’s upside is throttled with Higgins active, and your Monday Night Miracle could turn to a Monday Night Nightmare.

Honorable Mentions (Starts): Jake Ferguson (if active), Zach Ertz

Honorable Mentions (Sits): Isaiah Likely, Kyle Pitts

Set Your Lineups!

It is time to set lineups! Fire up those fingers and plug in your productive players (and bench the sits!). Check back for weekly must starts and sits based on the action that unfolds this season. Need some more options? Check out PlayerProfiler’s Upside Finder! Or DM me on Twitter! It’s time again for a season full of ups and downs. Buckle up!

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