Trendsetting
Every week of the NFL season, fantasy gamers juggle players to insert into lineups at each position. Are you questioning which players face easy matchups and which players face tougher paths to production? You are in the right place! Now that we have three weeks of data, we can see trends that can be leveraged in Week 4. For seasonal leagues, DFS, and more, this week’s must start and sit picks can give you some guidance on setting your lineups. Good luck!
Quarterback
Start: Russell Wilson
The Broncos vs. Bears matchup this week is going to be an excruciating watch. Neither team has gotten off to a great start with struggles all around. However, the Bears’ season outlook feels worse than it does for the Broncos. Chicago’s defense has yielded seven passing touchdowns to opponents this season. Three were by Patrick Mahomes, but three came from Jordan Love and one was to Baker Mayfield, who threw for over 300 yards against them. Despite a drubbing by the Dolphins last week, Russell Wilson threw for over 300 passing yards for the second straight game and has yet to dip below 30 passing attempts. The Bears allowed the second-most rushing fantasy points to QBs last season. That helps Wilson, whose rushing ability shows up from time to time. Broncos-Bears won’t be a pretty watch, but Wilson will still be able to eat up fantasy points against a subpar defense. Someone has to win that game, right?
Sit: Dak Prescott
In an upset loss against the Cardinals last week, Dak Prescott threw for 249 yards on 40 attempts. He has yet to finish as a top-12 QB this season and provides little rushing value. Prescott hasn’t exactly struggled, but he’s been a bit too vanilla for fantasy gamers’ tastes. He faces the Patriots in a tough matchup this week. New England has held opposing QBs under 250 passing yards in all three games this season. Notably, the Patriots have held the Eagles and Dolphins to limited passing outputs (albeit in losses). Prescott has struggled to connect with his pass-catchers in the end zone, converting 18 (No. 1) Red Zone Attempts into just three touchdowns. In a negative matchup, it’s best to leave Prescott on benches this week.
Running Back
Start: Jaylen Warren
As Najee Harris‘ backup, Jaylen Warren has slowly gotten more opportunities, seeing double-digit touches in back-to-back weeks now. He is averaging 6.17 (No. 2) Yards Created Per Touch with a 38.9-percent (No. 3) Juke Rate this season. While his rushing efficiency has not been good, Warren’s receiving usage (15.8-percent Target Share, No. 7) has dwarfed Harris’.
In 2021, Najee Harris had 74 Receptions
In 2022, Harris’ total dropped to 41, while Jaylen Warren had 28.
Through two games played
Najee Harris 3 Catches
Jaylen Warren 9 CatchesWarren’s role will continue to expand.pic.twitter.com/fULnri9e1w
— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) September 19, 2023
Warren faces a Texans defense that was worst in the league in rushing fantasy points allowed to RBs last season. Houston has also allowed 12 RB receptions this season, opening up receiving usage for Warren. He has carved out standalone fantasy value as the Steelers continue to use him in tandem with Harris. In a good matchup against the Texans, Warren makes an intriguing flex play for Week 4.
Sit: Rachaad White
As the Buccaneers’ lead running back, Rachaad White has had an inefficient start to the season. He is averaging less than four yards per carry and has finished outside the top-30 RBs in two out of three weeks to begin the season. Based on his performance so far, White will earn his fantasy production from receiving and touchdown opportunities. In Week 4, Tampa faces the Saints, who have held opposing RBs to less than four yards per carry. The suffocating New Orleans defense is yet to allow a rushing touchdown to an RB this season, leaving receiving as White’s best chance at production. However, the Saints allowed just the second-least receiving fantasy points to RBs in 2022. In a tough NFC South matchup, White is an easier sit than start this week.
Wide Receiver
Start: Jakobi Meyers
The Raiders’ passing offense is funneling targets to Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers this season. Adams is an obvious start, but Meyers is once again an underrated fantasy asset. Despite missing Week 2, he earned 12 targets in Week 3 after getting 10 targets in Week 1. A 31.4-percent (No. 2) Target Share signifies alpha-level opportunities despite playing next to Adams.
In two games with both Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, 87.6% of the 1st reads have gone to one of them.
The entire passing offense is focused around these two.
Jakobi Meyers is getting looked at an elite rate with the 4th most expected fantasy points per game amongst WRs.
— Dalton Kates (@Dalton_Kates) September 26, 2023
Meyers gets a struggling Chargers secondary in Week 4. The Chargers have allowed over 350 passing yards in two of the first three games of the season, the exception being the run-first Titans. Justin Herbert still does not have defensive help. In a game that has the upside of turning into an offensive shootout, find a way to insert Meyers into starting lineups.
Sit: Garrett Wilson
Losing Aaron Rodgers was a huge blow to Garrett Wilson‘s fantasy prospects. Wilson has seen a 31.0-percent (No. 10) Target Share but has 7.5 (No. 32) Yards Per Target with 104 (No. 17) Unrealized Air Yards. In Week 4, he gets the Chiefs, who have held opponents to one or fewer passing touchdowns in each game this season. No opposing QB has passed for more than 255 yards. With Zach Wilson as the Jets’ QB, Garrett Wilson’s chances of a big day are again slim. The volume will be there, but the Wilson-to-Wilson connection is more like one-bar cellular data service rather than four-bar 5G. They have connected for just seven receptions on 17 targets the last two games. Garrett gets a slight boost if Zach doesn’t play, but he’s still a sit this week. Kansas City has a good defense that will give the Jets’ offense trouble, making it a good time to sit the once-burgeoning breakout receiver.
Tight End
Start: Gerald Everett
Justin Herbert has had the Chargers offense humming this season. Among Los Angeles’ weapons, Gerald Everett has yet to have a big game. However, with six receptions last week, his role is ramping up. With Mike Williams out, Everett is a big target for Herbert to lean on in the passing game. The Chargers’ Week 4 opponent, the Raiders, have allowed a TE touchdown in back-to-back games. In 2022, Las Vegas also allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to TEs. Everett had 87 targets last season and is still a productive player when targeted. Targets will convert into red zone looks with Williams out, in a high-octane offense. Fire up Everett for a good matchup in Week 4.
Sit: David Njoku
So far this season, David Njoku has been a bit of a no-show. He has an 11.0-percent (No. 31) Target Share , but hasn’t scored more than 7.0 fantasy points yet this season. Njoku’s stats are similar to Everett’s, but he does not have the advantage of a high-performing quarterback or offensive opportunities. Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore are the only two players to see over 20 targets from Deshaun Watson, and the Cleveland offense has struggled. They face the Ravens this week, who have limited opposing TEs to under 15 yards in all three games this season. Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton have been fantastic over the middle of the field for Baltimore. Njoku is best left on benches this week.
Adapt!
As the football season trudges on, it is important to adapt to new information. New trends, injury issues, and usage reports can give information on what players will be better and worse for fantasy moving forward. Make sure to adjust your lineups, check waivers, and stay tuned for the rest of the season.
