Target Share Report – Week 4

by Aditya Fuldeore · Fantasy Football

In evaluating pass-catching performance, target-earning metrics can be key factors to see how much of an offensive role a player is earning. Target Share shows how many passes of a team’s total a player is earning. Targets per route run, or Target Rate, breaks that down further and measures a player’s target-earning efficiency. These stats together help identify trends in player usage and potential fantasy breakouts or regressions. After Week 4, trends have formed for player usage. Here are some interesting player trends to identify heading into Week 5! This is the Target Share Report!

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Running Backs

Jerome Ford

Though Nick Chubb did start his practice window, Jerome Ford is the Cleveland back producing as the No. 1 back. He is getting the bulk of backfield carries, but his usage in the passing game has seen a big swing. Ford is commanding a 14.0-percent (No. 9) Target Share, seeing seven targets in two out of four games this season.

With 76 (No. 4) routes run, Ford is getting opportunity that workhorse backs get. Nick Chubb is still working his way back, and Ford has command of the backfield receiving volume in Cleveland for now. He is an underrated buy candidate at this point of the season.

D’Andre Swift

Despite a slow start to the season, the Swift-aissance was in full effect Week 4. D’Andre Swift has a 12.8-percent (No. 10) Target Share this season, tallying seven catches on seven targets in Week 4. Caleb Williams tossed checkdowns and screens that Swift burst for heavy yardage. No other Bears running back has a significant grasp on backfield receiving volume. This means that Swift will see some lows as the Bears offense works through growing pains, but he is a FLEX option due to his target-earning.

Wide Receivers

Malik Nabers & Wan’Dale Robinson

The New York Giants have a major pass funnel to two receivers. Rookie sensation Malik Nabers is earning a 38.2-percent (No. 1) Target Share and a 34.7-percent (No. 5) Target Rate. He is running many routes and earning targets very heavily on said routes.

Wan’Dale Robinson is at a 27.9-percent (No. 13) Target Share with a 31.9-percent (No. 8) Target Rate. Both players have multiple games of double-digit targets already this season and somehow Daniel Jones has two wide receivers to invest in for PPR. Nabers is already a top fantasy receiver and will be tough to trade for, but Robinson is a good buy candidate.

Tyler Lockett & Jaxon Smith-Njigba

The Seahawks’ receiving group may be seeing a changing of the guard soon between Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Lockett is seeing a 16.9-percent (No. 57) Target Share with one top 40 fantasy finish. Smith-Njigba is seeing a 21.4-percent (No. 38) Target Share with two top 40 and one top 10 fantasy finish on the season. To contextualize the distribution, Smith-Njigba has seen bigger booms while Lockett sees targets a little more often.

The boom weeks from Smith-Njigba are more encouraging and he is the No. 2 Seahawks receiver to invest in after Metcalf. Lockett is more of the No. 3 now but will still see a steady share of targets.

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson

As the Cowboys’ No. 2 option in the passing game, Jake Ferguson has at least five targets in each of his three games played. His 21.7-percent (No. 3) Target Share is higher than his 102-target season last year. Ferguson was going in the TE7-10 range in fantasy drafts but is now looking like a bargain compared to the disappointments of other elite tight ends.

He quietly earned a valuable role behind CeeDee Lamb, and touchdown regression will come with the high target share he is earning. Perhaps flying under the radar, you still have a chance to deal for Ferguson before the scores start coming.

Mark Andrews

Zeroes. That is what the fantasy scoreboard looked like in Weeks 3 and 4 for Mark Andrews. In a shocking turn of events, Andrews is just at an 8.7-percent (No. 32) Target Share this season, a far fall from his five straight seasons of at least a 20-percent Target Share. With Isaiah Likely also in the mix as a receiving and blocking option, Andrews’ snaps have decreased. He isn’t earning targets with his routes either, with a 25.1-percent (No. 58) Target Rate on 35.8-percent (No. 33) Route Participation. Andrews continues to trend down and is droppable in shallow leagues.

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