Target Share Report – Week 5

by Aditya Fuldeore · Fantasy Football

In evaluating pass-catching performance, target-earning metrics can be key factors to see how much of an offensive role a player is earning. Target Share shows how many passes of a team’s total a player is earning. Targets per route run, or Target Rate, breaks that down further and measures a player’s target-earning efficiency. These stats together help identify trends in player usage and potential fantasy breakouts or regressions. A theme of this post-Week 5 piece will be surprising Target Shares. I will bring your attention to Target Shares per skill position group that are higher or lower than expected. This is the Target Share Report Week 5!

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Running Backs

Tony Pollard

The Titans’ running back splits have favored Tony Pollard to start the season. He has a 66.4-percent (No. 17) Opportunity Share, with a 15.1-percent (No. 5) Target Share boosting that. With at least four targets in three out of four games this season, Pollard is seeing more consistent passing game usage than Tyjae Spears and leads the Titans in receptions.

Coming out of the Titans’ Week 5 bye, there may be changes to the offense, but Pollard’s share of the backfield receiving opportunities has been encouraging. According to this target share report, he is beating his initial draft position and is a good buy with consistent target counts that make him one of the few running backs with a grasp on both rushing and receiving opportunities on his team.

Josh Jacobs

Contrary to Pollard, Jacobs does not have a grasp of receiving opportunities on his team. Though his current backup, Emanuel Wilson, does not cut into many of his backfield opportunities, Jacobs has just a 7.7-percent (No. 31) Target Share.

He has exceeded one target in two out of five games, with Week 4 having a season-high six targets. Though he is a workhorse back for the Packers, many underneath and checkdown-esque targets are heading to the tight ends. Jacobs’ fantasy ceiling is capped by the lack of receiving game usage according to the target share report.

Wide Receivers

Josh Downs

The Colts’ receiving room has been in flux with Josh Downs hurt to start the season and now Michael Pittman Jr. hurt. Downs particularly has had a good funnel of targets since returning to action, posting a 28.6-percent (No. 7) Target Share. With a 34.7-percent (No. 4) Target Rate, Downs is seeing a lot of shallow targets working out of the slot.

The main caveat is that most of his production has come with Joe Flacco at quarterback instead of Anthony Richardson. Pittman being out means Downs could continue to see a high volume of targets, but if Richardson is the quarterback, the quality of those targets will decrease.

Calvin Ridley

After getting a four-year, $92 million contract in the offseason, Calvin Ridley has just nine catches in four games. His 17.9-percent (No. 55) Target Share and 16.0-percent (No. 78) Target Rate indicate he is seldom earning targets when he is out on the field. Though he is the team leader in receiving yards, the backs – Pollard and Spears – are leading the team in catches. For PPR leagues, that is all the more reason to invest in Pollard. Meanwhile, quarterback play isn’t the best in Tennessee and Ridley has been a disappointing fantasy pick thus far.

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert

With disappointing starts for several elite tight ends, Dallas Goedert has swooped back into the elite tier. In the Eagles’ offense, Goedert has taken advantage of A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith‘s absences, posting a 13.2-percent (No. 2) Target Share. The higher-than-expected target-earning was a nice surprise for fantasy managers, but the sell high window is open.

Both Brown and Smith are projected to return Week 6, and Goedert’s role could shrink. He will still be the No. 3 receiving option, but there will be reduced opportunity moving forward. A bonus for reading this far: Jake Ferguson has similarly trended upward from last season but is unlikely to see a decreased role moving forward.

Sam LaPorta

If you drafted Sam LaPorta, you likely took him as a top two tight end. However, LaPorta has started the season with just an 11.5-percent (No. 22) Target Share. Coupled with a low 13.6-percent (No. 29) Target Rate, he is earning targets at nearly half the rate as his rookie 2023 season. There is reason for optimism, however. LaPorta is still the No. 3 pass-catching option in a potent offense. Higher passing volume games and touchdown regression will give him brighter pastures. He may not return his value with low fantasy output stemming from surprisingly low target-earning, but selling low won’t help. Stay patient for LaPorta’s value to rise.

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