Target Share Report – Week 7

by Aditya Fuldeore · Fantasy Football
Target share

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In evaluating pass-catching performance, target-earning metrics can be key factors in seeing how much of an offensive role a player is earning. Target Share shows how many passes of a team’s total a player is earning. Targets per route run, or Target Rate, breaks that down further and measures a player’s target-earning efficiency. These stats together help identify trends in player usage and potential fantasy breakouts or regressions. Now seven weeks into the season, we are seeing new trends emerge as trades, byes, and more happen across the NFL.

Running Backs

Rachaad White

The Bucs backfield is looking like a three-headed monster led by Rachaad White moving forward. While White’s rushing efficiency has been low, he is earning a 12.7-percent (No. 10) Target Share. In the Bucs’ Week 7 game against the Ravens, White got six targets, Bucky Irving saw three, and Sean Tucker two. When all the backs are healthy, all will rotate in. However, White is the lead pass-catcher and the best option for PPR leagues. Irving and Tucker still have pass-catching utility if White misses time.

Antonio Gibson

The Patriots’ offense has not yielded much fantasy opportunity, and Antonio Gibson has a small slice of that already little opportunity. With over 35 receptions all four years of his career, Gibson had a pass-catching reputation. However, he is earning a 7.0-percent (No. 43) Target Share and ceding a large role to Rhamondre Stevenson.

Week 6 is the only time Gibson ran over 10 routes, earning more than one target in just three of seven games this season. Unfortunately, the former Commanders back has not carved out a pass-catching upside on the Pats and is a weekly RB4 right now.

Wide Receivers

Cedric Tillman

The Browns are undergoing a quarterback change with Deshaun Watson (Achilles) now out for the season. The offense was one of the worst in the league and can only go up from here, right? The post-Amari Cooper target distribution featured a lot of Cedric Tillman.

Despite just five targets this season – all coming through the first three games – Tillman had 12 targets in Week 7. He saw an 81.9-percent Snap Share after previously not exceeding 37-percent. Only David Njoku had more targets in a high passing-volume day. While more games of data are required before inserting Tillman into weekly fantasy lineups, he is an intriguing waiver wire pickup.

Rashod Bateman

The Ravens passing attack has taken a big jump, with multiple receivers reaching relevancy with Lamar Jakson. The Rashod Bateman breakout is finally here, with three straight games of four catches and a fantasy WR1 finish in Week 7. Despite the breakout, he is seeing a 15.9-percent (No. 65) Target Share in a lower volume passing attack. Fantasy managers can hang their hat on his top-12 Receiving EPX and Target Separation. Bateman doesn’t get targeted frequently, but when he does, it’s an explosive catch.

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry

With Drake Maye starting, Hunter Henry has 14 targets over two games and back-to-back top-eight fantasy tight end finishes.

Though a 12-target Week 2 was Henry’s only other game with over six PPR points, he has a season-long 19.5-percent (No. 9) Target Share. Establishing a rapport with Maye has paid dividends in recent weeks and boosted him to low-end TE1 status. Expect this trend to continue as the Pats have no alpha-earning wide receivers. Henry will continue to eat shallow, middle-of-the-field targets and put up high reception numbers for PPR leagues.

David Njoku

Amidst the Browns’ offensive struggles, David Njoku has been a consistent target-earner when healthy. He has at least four receptions and five targets in three of four games, with a season-long 20.4-percent (No. 6) Target Share. When Deshaun Watson (Achilles) went down in Week 7, Njoku continued to be a primary target for Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Jameis Winston. He totaled 14 targets out of 52 pass attempts – a team-leading 27-percent Target Share. In a shifting Browns offense without Amari Cooper, Njoku is slated to see a large amount of safe, middle-of-the-field targets. He is one of the highest-floor tight ends out there.

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