In the Week 10 DFS Matchups to Target, we hit some highs – DeAndre Carter, Jonathan Taylor, James Robinson, and a lack of a story in a blowout from the Cowboys. As for the Week 11 Matchups to Target, we are going a different route. Sure, I could type all day about the Cowboys-Chiefs. However, let’s do a deeper dive. I’m going to explore some volatile matchups which could pay out big if the Cowboys-Chiefs doesn’t smash—or at least hit the high weekly roster percentages we are likely to see.
Games to Target in Week 11 DFS Matchups
Ravens @ Bears
Weather: 45f Partly Cloudy
Over/Under: 45
Fact to Know: When Justin Fields takes less than 2.5 seconds to pass, he sees a 64.4-percent completion rate, a 22-percent pressure rate, while only getting sacked five times. When he takes longer than 2.5 seconds to pass, his completion rate drops to 53.7-percent while seeing a 53.3- percent pressure rate and getting sacked 24 times. However, the issue has been big plays and making more critical mistakes.
Fields’ Average Depth of Target drops to 6.5 with the under and smashes when he’s able to create plays with 16.2. Not to mention, his touchdown to interception ratio is 0-5 compared to 4-3.
During the past two games, Fields has somewhat broken out. As a result, there’s been a paradigm shift in his numbers. He’s only completing 50-percent of his passes while still turning the ball over when under the 2.5 threshold. While over, he has a 64.7-percent completion rate for one touchdown and no interceptions. In addition, although he’s a similar pressure rate, Fields has only been sacked twice.
Players To Attack in Week 11 DFS Matchups
Justin Fields $5,700
Lamar Jackson $8,000
Marquise Brown $7,100
Allen Robinson $4,900
David Montgomery $5,500
Darnell Mooney $5,200
Cole Kmet $3,400
Devonta Freeman $5,100
Devin Duvernay $3,800
Mark Andrews $6,000
The Ravens-Bears matchup is one where you’re swinging for the fences. It could smash with big plays as the Ravens allow a 12-percent (No. 30) explosive play rate in the air and 14-percent (No. 30) on the ground. The Bears aren’t far behind, with 10-percent (No. 22) in the air and also 14-percent (No. 29) on the ground. Explosions are everywhere behind the league’s most dynamic quarterback in Lamar Jackson and an emerging star in Fields. However, it could also finish as a game you didn’t want to touch.
The Bears rank No. 30 in plays run per game and No. 29 in points scored per game. However, over the past two, they have averaged 2.9 more plays and 7.8 more points. The emergence of this offense is likely due to the improvement of Fields’ play mentioned above when extending plays and not taking sacks.
So what makes me feel like Fields could continue to be successful and drive the over on this game?
A tweet popped up on my timeline from @WyattB_FF, mentioning Baltimore’s inability to covert pressures into sacks. After diving in, I saw the Ravens have a 33.2-percent (No. 3) blitz rate with a 28.5-percent (No. 2) pressure rate, but only 18.6-percent resulted from sacks. To put those numbers into perspective, the Panthers blitz 31.7-percent (No. 7) of the time with a 27.8-percent (No. 3) pressure rate. 28.7-percent of the pressure rate applied came from sacking the quarterback.
Two things can happen if the Ravens are constantly bringing the blitz. First, they force Fields to run, offering a 13-point floor if he can duplicate Week 8. Add in a touchdown, and you’re talking about a significant ROI. The second is the defensive backs are left one-on-one, and Fields gets to deliver that pretty deep ball to Darnell Mooney, Marquise Goodwin, and Damiere Byrd time and time again.
As for who I’m stacking him with, we could see more cash game opportunities if you stack Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet. The hope is Allen Robinson plays which I would take the matchup with Robinson against Anthony Averett over Mooney in tournaments. However, if he doesn’t play, both Mooney and Kmet are locks.
I’m avoiding Rashod Bateman if Sammy Watkins returns. Even if he doesn’t, I’ll be opting to take Marquise Brown. He should dominate the outside, but the slot is even sexier. Duke Shelley has been subpar, and the Bears as a whole have been terrible against slot receivers—also why I want a flyer on Devin Duvernay.
Bengals @ Raiders
Weather: Dome
Over/Under: 50.5
Fact to Know: Derek Carr has seen a slight dip in efficiency since losing Henry Ruggs, but not as bad as one would think. The Raiders explosive play rate decreased from 13-percent (No. 1) to 12 (No. 5), and Carr’s completion rate has gone up by 3.3-percent. However, he is averaging over 50 yards less per contest—something which could have a massive effect on these Week 11 DFS matchups.
Players to Attack in Week 11 DFS Matchups
Joe Mixon $7,600
Josh Jacobs $6,000
Ja’Marr Chase $7,200
Bryan Edwards $4,100
C.J. Uzomah $3,500
Kenyan Drake $5,200
Hunter Renfrow $5,800
Joe Burrow $6,600
Darren Waller $6,100
Derek Carr $5,900
Tee Higgins $5,400
Let me start this by saying I’m likely not investing too much at quarterback here. Joe Burrow makes some sense, but I’m touting the running backs heavy in this one. I still have the quarterbacks listed because I believe the backs will be effective in the passing game.
This is pretty cool! https://t.co/VZgXowo3a3
— Anand Nanduri (@NanduriNFL) November 19, 2021
Joe Mixon has been wildly efficient against teams with poor DOCE Scores, seeing at least four targets in each contest against a team in the bottom ten. He’s also given you 25-plus points in each matchup. The Raiders have a 7.77 (No. 30) DOCE Score.
Although Josh Jacobs has still been influential in the receiving game, he hasn’t had the same advantageous schedule. With a 7.58 (No. 29) DOCE Score, the Bengals will be the worst team the Raiders have faced against pass-catching running backs. So I’m not only taking quite a few shots on Jacobs but Kenyan Drake as well. If Jacobs gets injured further, we could see a heavy dose of Drake, but regardless, he’ll see the field.
Ja’Marr Chase should get back to his regularly scheduled program against the Raiders. Brandon Facyson has no shot at containing him as Facyson has struggled against top talents since getting the starting job in Week 6.
As for his tight-end teammate, C.J. Uzomah has a real opportunity in the Week 11 DFS matchups to outproduce his counterpart, Darren Waller. The Raiders have been horrid against the tight ends, allowing the second-most receptions, yards, and touchdowns per game. Six tight ends across nine games have accrued double-digit points. Tee Higgins returning from injury has me slightly worried about volume, but Uzomah should have no issue with efficiency.
Other Sneaky Game Stacks
Tua Tagovailoa $5,500
Myles Gaskin $5,700
Mike Gesicki $5,200
Elijah Moore $4,900
Michael Carter $5,800
Jamison Crowder $4,700
The dweller of the AFC East, and yet, there’s still hope for scoring in the Dolphins-Jets game. In this matchup, I’m attacking the Jets inability to cover pass-catching running backs. They are giving up 14.6 (No. 31) points per game to backs who qualify while touting a 6.66 (No. 26) DOCE Score. Meanwhile, Myles Gaskin has played right into the DOCE Score this season.
Gaskin has played right into the DOCE Scores hands thus far on the season. He's seen double-digit pts in every contest against teams in the bottom 10 and single digits against every team in the top 10 except for Houston.
The Jets 6.66 (No.26) DOCE Score means big pts in Week 11 pic.twitter.com/OhRay2tUp9
— Chase Vernon (@ff_intervention) November 19, 2021
Gaskin has seen double-digit points in every contest against teams in the bottom ten and single digits against every team in the top ten except Houston. He could be a fun dart throw with low roster percentages.
Tua Tagovailoa should benefit from this along with production from Mike Gesicki. After a seven-target, zero catch outing in Week 10, expect for his roster percentages to be lower as well. The Jets have struggled against bigger, more physical receivers such as Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman. It’s no surprise as the two tallest players in the secondary in Bryce Hall and Ashtyn Davis stand at 6-1.
Oh, wait. Gesicki’s a tight end. Well if you insist, the Jets have also struggled there, allowing four touchdowns over the past five games. So regardless of where he lines up, Gesicki is set up for a bounce back.
On the other side, I like Elijah Moore‘s opportunity as the Dolphins allow a 10-percent (No. 24) explosive pass-play rate. They have been better as of late, but it’s far from a corrected issue. If you don’t go with the explosive plays from Moore, focus on the underneath opportunity from Jamison Crowder.
In the four games Joe Flacco started, Crowder saw ten targets more than any other receiver. And although Flacco is no Mike White, Carter should still be relevant as Flacco targeted the running back on 22 occasions—Frank Gore (!) led with eight.
Davante Adams $8,400
Justin Jefferson $8,100
A.J. Dillon $6,200
Aaron Rodgers $6,600
Adam Thielen $6,600
Dalvin Cook $8,200
Kirk Cousins $6,100
Initially, the Packers-Vikings game was going into my Week 11 DFS Matchups to Target. However, after breaking down the numbers and seeing the roster percentages, I’m fading a heavy stack and hoping for what we saw with the Packers-Chiefs in Week 10. Both secondaries are playing much better than we’ve seen in previous years, forcing this into a run-centric game.
The Vikings poor defensive rank against the quarterback is inflated by three rushing quarterbacks: Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson. They have only allowed two quarterbacks to hit the 300-yard bonus thus far. In addition, Aaron Rodgers has only hit it once in 2021 and only has one game with three passing touchdowns.
On the other side of the ball, Kirk Cousins hasn’t been able to produce against the Packers since his lights-out performances in 2018. Cousins has totaled five touchdowns to four interceptions in the four games since, with only one game over 250 passing yards. Although he has put up three touchdowns in a game three times on the year, they came in Weeks 2, 3, and 6.
Even with all the negative energy surrounding this game, I still think Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, A.J. Dillon, and Dalvin Cook should find their way onto rosters. Dillon, in particular, will be one who I’m targeting heavily as he should see over 80-percent of the snaps with Aaron Jones and Kylin Hill out. However, going too heavy on this game could tank your lineups where there are safer game stacks elsewhere.
Couple of Dart Throws
Donovan Peoples-Jones $4,500
Going back to the well. In Week 10, Donovan Peoples-Jones let me down. He was second on the team in targets, only to D’Ernest Johnson. However, he couldn’t corral four of the five leading to a disappointing day against one of the league’s best secondaries.
Week 11 DFS Matchups are a different story as he faces a bottom-three defense against receivers in the Lions. Now, I doubt the Browns throw much with a hurt Baker Mayfield or Case Keenum, but the efficiency should be there.
Travis Homer $4,500
Picking Travis Homer is a dart throw where you need to squeeze a running back into the RB2 spot in a stud-heavy lineup. He’s the perfect play for a Chiefs-Cowboys heavy game stack. In Week 10, Homer almost doubled the number of routes he ran in a single game since 2019. Unfortunately, he didn’t do much with them, but the Packers have only allowed 6.45 (No.1) yards per reception to backs on the season.
The Cardinals have only played one dynamic pass-catching back in Christian McCaffrey for Week 10. He lit them up with 10 receptions for 66 yards on a limited workload. Homer should be able to do some damage. However, the key to this is Kyler Murray. If he plays, this matchup will be more likely to turn into a shootout, allowing Homer to get in a more significant workload.
