We’ve reached the point of the NFL season where you can’t help but feel like every team and every player in the league has shown you exactly what you can expect for the remainder of the season. Marcus Mariota doesn’t appear to be on the verge of turning any heads this season, Alex Smith has crashed back to earth, and Antonio Brown looks like the best receiver we’ve seen over the last decade based on advanced stats, metrics, and analytics profiles.
Even with so many player and team situations that appear glaringly obvious in terms of potential for success, we can still find those weekly gems who look to to defy odds. Could this be the week that Jordy Nelson finally looks like the receiver he was sans Brett Hundley? Who emerges for the Raiders in a week without Amari Cooper (injury) and Michael Crabtree (suspension)? And is this the week a rookie wide receiver for the Titans finally erupts? It’s time for our Week 13 breakout article to answer these questions!
Here’s what to expect!
Seth Roberts, Raiders, WR
Despite being the third wide receiver in Oakland’s offense, Seth Roberts has managed to post a 78.6-percent Snap Share (no. 49 overall), and has seen five or more targets in four of his 10 games played this season. Now Roberts has a chance to post a season-high Snap Share in Week 13 with both Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper out. He also gets a favorable matchup against a flailing New York Giants team.
Our PlayerProfiler.com cornerback matchup predictor has Roberts seeing a lot of Eli Apple, who has allowed a 105.1 Passer Rating to opposing wide receivers this season (no. 51 overall) and boasts a +0.13 Coverage Rating (no. 31). He’s the 60th ranked cornerback overall on the season, and now looks to slow down a Raiders offense that is 15th in passing plays per game (37). The Giants will also be starting Geno Smith this week, which could lead to a surplus of offensive drives for the Raiders, allowing Roberts ample opportunity to utilize his physical assets.
Seth Roberts Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
With a 4.46 40-yard dash time (76th-percentile) and 110.4 Speed Score (69th-percentile) the 6-foot-2, 196-pound receiver is prone to stretch the field. Don’t overlook his elite college YPR of 21.4 (97th-percentile) and his College Dominator Rating of 35.6-percent (68th-percentile). The loss of Cooper and Crabtree leaves 151 targets vacated, and the likes of Cordarelle Patterson and Johnny Holton shouldn’t eat too much into Roberts’ targets. This may be Roberts’ lone time to shine this season, look for him to capitalize in Week 13.
Taywan Taylor, Titans, WR
Very little has been impressive about the Titans’ passing game this season. Aside from Rishard Matthews looking like the unquestioned top receiver in their offense, Eric Decker is a shell of himself, and Corey Davis has yet to flash. Marcus Mariota is carrying a 2,810 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions stat line in 10 games played. Now the Titans are home to face the Houston Texans, a team that is allowing 243.9 passing yards per game (no. 24), and +4.48 fantasy points to wide receivers beyond the league averaged (no. 6).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NbKGvZbUrE
While this looks like a favorable matchup for all of the aforementioned players, the guy we are getting excited about is Taywan Taylor, who could have a shot at more snaps with Rishard Matthews seeing limited to no participation in practice this week. Eric Decker isn’t getting it done, and the Titans would be wise to get Taylor on the field more.
Taywan Taylor has been a playmaker dating back to his days at Western Kentucky, where he posted a 38.6-percent College Dominator Rating (78th-percentile) and 17.7 College YPR (85th-percentile). Taylor finished his collegiate career with a 253 receptions, 4,234 receiving yards, and 41 touchdowns. He twice eclipsed 90 receptions, while hauling in 17 touchdowns in both his junior and senior seasons.
Taywan Taylor Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Taywan Taylor looks the part of an elite slot receiver with his 4.50 40-yard dash time (67th-percentile) and 10.78 Agility Score (92nd-percentile), Taylor has a chance to take advantage of a porous Texans pass defense that is stout against the run, allowing 96.3 rushing yards per game (no. 7 in the NFL). If Tennessee is forced to divert from their run-heavy attack, Taylor could emerge as a sneaky play in PPR-leagues for Week 13.
Jordy Nelson, Packers, WR
Jordy Nelson had plenty of elite fantasy games early in the season finishing as the WR11 or better in three of his first four games of the season. Those days have long passed since Brett Hundley took over following the injury to Aaron Rodgers, as Nelson has not finished better than WR44 in Week 9 against the Lions. Since losing Rodgers in Week 6, Nelson has not posted more than four receptions in a game, more than 35 receiving yards, and has no scores during that duration.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ev975Om2b9I
This week, Nelson gets the proverbial monkey off his back, thanks to a matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have proven incapable of covering nearly every wide receiver who opposes them in a given week. The Buccaneers are allowing a league worst 284.6 passing yards per game, and are surrendering +12.58 fantasy points per game above the league average to opposing wide receivers.
Getting back to PlayerProfiler’s cornerback matchup tool, Jordy Nelson looks poised to matchup against Robert McClain, who is the 116th ranked cornerback this season, allowing a 116.2 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks. Despite a dismal drop in production since Brett Hundley took over, if Nelson were to ever have a desirable matchup while tethered to Hundley, this is the week! I fully to expect Nelson to re-emerge for the Packers in Week 13, and continue the trend of wide receivers dominance over Tampa Bay’s defensive backs.
