There’s a sale going on at THE FANTASY SUPERMARKET! Every week, there are players whose prices are either slashed due to recent performance or not yet as high as you should be willing to pay for them.
These players are all primed for value increases in the near future. Using advanced stats and metrics, I’ll be walking you through this week’s supermarket sales and highlighting players you should be looking to buy before the next slate of contests. Act now, because this sale isn’t going to last long.
Allen Robinson
The Bears didn’t look great on Sunday versus the Browns, but Allen Robinson is a phenomenal case of buying low on alpha usage. Robinson is unequivocally the go-to target for Chicago, a team who will see plenty of negative Game Scripts. Through two weeks, he has racked up a 23.8-percent (No. 24 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share, 58.9-percent (No. 6) Dominator Rating, and a 30.7-percent (No. 33) Air Yards Share. Despite Chicago’s train-wreck of an offensive effort, Robinson led the team with 6 targets and 54 Air Yards.
please don’t do this to allen robinson again @god pic.twitter.com/cMY7y7PNpa
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) September 13, 2021
The combination of an alpha Target Share and negative Game Scripts is one you chase with receivers, but the results have yet to show for Robinson. That bad fortune is set to turn around soon. The schedule gets easier moving forward, with games against the Lions and Raiders over the next two weeks. The Bears offense won’t always be as stagnant as it has been, even in bad matchups. Justin Fields should continue to lead this offense, which is good for Robinson. He’s the first read that backups and young quarterbacks tend to lock onto (The Tom Savage Corollary). However, the issue at hand is that there is reliance on Matt Nagy fixing his play calling. Robinson’s route tree on Sunday was inexcusable, and unlikely to continue if the Bears want to win any football games.
Josh Jacobs
It sounds crazy, but it just might work. The Raiders are shocking the nation with their 3-0 start, but what isn’t shocking is Josh Jacobs‘ usage rate. In a Week 1 game when the Raiders were tailing all game, Jacobs still saw 13 opportunities and ran 13 routes. His efficiency was also notable. He’s impressively piled up a 27.3-percent Juke Rate, a 29.0-percent (No. 8) Dominator Rating, a 48.9-percent (No. 4) Production Premium, and 1.46 (No. 6) Fantasy Points Per Opportunity.
Josh Jacobs Rushing Efficiency Metrics
While he has been unavailable the last two weeks with an ankle injury, Peyton Barber has seen promising usage in his place. Barber saw 23 carries and 5 targets on Sunday, while Kenyan Drake mostly watched from the sidelines. When Jacobs comes back (which should be Week 5 at the latest), it is going to be the Josh Jacobs show. Like it or not, the Raiders are good and Jon Gruden has been drawing up solid offensive schemes. Jacobs will be a bell-cow in most contests, and that is the kind of guy you bet on when the value dips.
Odell Beckham
He may not be like he was in New York, but Odell Beckham is back. He looked good on Sunday, and led the team in receiving opportunity with 9 targets and 149 Air Yards. Beckham even showed remnants (albeit small) of his old self in his limited stint last season in both opportunity and efficiency. In seven games, he collected a 32.8-percent (No. 17) Air Yards Share, a 24.7-percent (No. 19) Target Share, 0.50 (No. 13) Fantasy Points Per Route Run, and an overall WR1 finish against Dallas in Week 4.
He’s baaaaaack. @OBJ
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/GqEjYvcZaP— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) September 26, 2021
The Browns will be missing Jarvis Landry for a few weeks now, and they have a soft schedule coming up (including a very tasty playoff schedule). Baker Mayfield has also shown more ability to get more pass-catchers involved in the offense. That may sound like a negative on the surface, but an earlier issue with Beckham was that it would be too tough for Baker to support both Landry and Beckham to indicate weekly relevance. With a mid-level defense and an evolving offense, this issue is no longer as pressing. With time without Landry to re-cement himself as an alpha target, it is wheels up for the former supernova.
Jonathan Taylor
Schedule strength, as this article has indicated, plays a large role in players to target. This is no exception for Jonathan Taylor. The Colts offense has had a slow start, playing from behind in each of their first three games. This has slowed Taylor’s rushing volume, but what’s eye opening is his 13 (No. 1) Red Zone Targets, 11.6-percent (No. 19) Target Share, and 1.94 (No. 5) Yards Per Route Run. Taylor has been effective through the air, which means that negative Game Scripts won’t impact him that much. In fact, we know that targets are more important than carries for fantasy. His 31.8 (No. 8) Weighted Opportunities further prove that he is receiving plenty of fantasy relevant opportunity that will eventually breed better results.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKyIAQr1040
We know that Taylor is an efficient runner, and will continue to be. The Colts have a softer schedule coming up, gearing up to face Miami, Baltimore, and Houston over the next three weeks. Even with Quenton Nelson out for the next few weeks, the Colts will establish the run with their lack of success in the passing game. When the chips are down, it will still be Taylor seeing significant work in the passing game. Selling low on him is a mistake that gamers are ready to make, and one that you can take advantage of.
And now for THE certified, locked and loaded, Fantasy Supermarket BUY OF THE WEEK…
Robert Woods
Matthew Stafford and the Rams have been balling to start the season. Robert Woods, on the other hand, has not been. Cooper Kupp has been the talk of the town, rightfully so. Kupp has been the highlight of the receiving core for the first three weeks, but how long will this trend continue? All good things, as they say, come to an end. Teams will start to be more attention to him out of necessity, and that’s when the world will remember that Woods is still a star. Woods’ usage through three weeks has been okay, but not concerning. He’s seen a 23.6-percent (No. 27) Target Share on a 28.9-percent Target Rate, a 90.8-percent (No. 16) Snap Share, and a 26.1-percent (No. 45) Air Yards Share.
There may be no bigger buy in redraft than Robert Woods.
His results have been dreadful but the usage is fine, and Stafford is BALLIN’. It’s pointless to re-hash Kupp v Woods. They’re no longer the same price.
Who can you acquire woods for today? That’s what matters.
— Jakob Sanderson (RTDB) ↗️ (@FF_RTDB) September 27, 2021
This is all in spite of little usage in a dominant Rams win over the Bears in Week 1. He’s ran more routes and eclipsed 5 targets in each of the last two games, and now will begin to enter a divisional schedule in the shootout-prone NFC West. Woods will not be the cemented No. 1 target for the Rams this season, but that doesn’t mean he’s dust. The Rams are a high powered offense and are slinging the ball. If Woods is going to see five-plus targets per game, that’s a situation you should be willing to take a bet on.
Conclusion
You don’t win fantasy leagues through the draft. You win by taking advantage of the waiver wire and trade market. This year’s early season shenanigans present ample opportunity to push your team to the next level. Start by targeting these players. If you can’t manage to strike a deal, then there’s always next week at the fantasy supermarket.
