Here we go into Week 3 with our recommended stacks for GPP tournaments. As always, this series aims to identify under the radar pairs of QBs and WRs from the same team for you to play in the same lineup in DraftKings tournaments. Stacking creates positive correlation in our lineup’s scoring due to the shared nature of passing/receiving scoring in fantasy football. This helps to unlock the ceiling of our lineups generating high finish potential in top heavy prize tournaments.
Week 2 Review
Week 2 presented an interesting challenge for tournament lineups. The entire industry was salivating over the shootout potential in the Chargers-Cowboys game. We saw Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert command large roster shares with each of their complementary weapons also quite popular. That didn’t work out this week. From a process perspective, that level of popularity told us to stay away from those chalky plays in order to give us more shots at finding a unique, slate breaking performance.
The first stack featured Jalen Hurts and Devonta Smith. Both came in under 8-percent rostered which is what we’re looking for. Hurts performed well chipping in 80 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. He didn’t quite get it going through the air though, and Smith suffered as a result finishing with only 3 DK points.
Our second stack chose to pivot from the Prescott/Herbert stacks by paying up a bit with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Again, both came in under 8-percent, so our idea was correct. Unfortunately, the Bills steamrolled the Dolphins with several rushing touchdowns limiting the ceiling of both Allen and Diggs. Their 17 and 16 points respectively didn’t crush lineups but was certainly disappointing.
Finally, we went to a budget option as a contrarian lineup construction. Zach Wilson showed an exciting, gunslinging potential in Week 1 by pushing the ball downfield consistently. In week 2, that simply didn’t work. He threw 4 interceptions and didn’t even salvage his day with garbage time production. His sub 1% roster share meant he was in a great spot to be a slate breaker, but it doesn’t hit every week. Similarly, Corey Davis was quiet checking in under 3 points.
Week 3 Overview
Where last week we had an obvious chalk game with Chargers-Cowboys, this week it doesn’t seem there will be a single game that separates like that one. Seahawks-Vikings, Buccaneers-Rams, and Chargers-Chiefs all will be popular, but not to the same extent. Early in the week, I would say Justin Herbert is likely to be the most popular of those QBs. We also have Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson on the slate as big favorites raising questions about their projected passing volume in expected positive Game Script. With a stated goal in this series of contrarian stack plays, we’re going away from those games for two of our stacks this week.
Tom Brady and Chris Godwin
From the set of highest total games this week, Tom Brady makes the most sense as the QB for tournament lineups. He’s going against the “scariest” defense of the bunch and has virtually no rushing upside (half yard QB sneak TDs aside). As a result, he shouldn’t see a massive roster percentage. I suspect last week’s popularity (15-percent) was due in part to late swappers getting off Dak Prescott/Justin Herbert.
Given the minimal rushing upside, Brady needs to throw frequently and efficiently to unlock a tournament ceiling upside. So far, Brady has done that. His 86 attempts through two games rank fourth in the league while his 20 Red Zone attempts rank first. He’s top five in passing yards, Air Yards, Completed Air Yards, Money Throws, Deep Ball Attempts, and Passing Touchdowns. That kind of volume makes a pure pocket passer like Brady viable.
Tom Brady hasn’t lost his touch
The question with Brady this year is who to stack him with. Double stacks are absolutely in play by picking two WRs or a WR and Rob Gronkowski. This week, our recommended pairing is Chris Godwin. He’s cheaper than Mike Evans while having a more consistent role in both games. He’s being featured in the slot (68 Slot Snaps ranks No. 5 among qualified wide receivers) and the red zone (his 5 Red Zone Targets rank No. 1) en route to 19 targets so far (No. 11). That slot role is particularly relevant this week going against the Rams where he figures to dodge Jalen Ramsey, the No. 3 on PlayerProfiler’s Cornerback Rankings (editors note: keep an eye on Antonio Brown‘s status since he was put on the COVID list on Wednesday the 22nd and is in danger of missing this game).
Justin Fields and Allen Robinson
For our second stack, we head to Chicago where Justin Fields looks to get his first career NFL start. Fields is a dynamite prospect where he displayed elite command of an offense most notably in his 92.1 (97t-percentile) College QBR. He has the size (6-3, 227-pounds) and the wheels (4.51, 99th-percentile 40-Yard Dash). He steps into a situation that has produced fantasy success for mobile quarterbacks. Look no further than Mitchell Trubisky‘s 2018 season where he finished as a QB1.
Justin Fields has played 134 NFL preseason plus regular season snaps. Roughly 2 games worth. Rushing line is 21-123-1.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 21, 2021
The matchup looks intimidating on paper against the Browns. That works to our advantage in suppressing his rostered percentage. It’s worth noting however that prior to exiting with a hamstring, Tyrod Taylor was 10/11 with 125 yards and a touchdown plus a rushing touchdown. As an underdog, the Bears should be forced to throw, and Fields’s rushing ability gives him a relatively safe floor at the cheap $5.2k salary.
Allen Robinson hasn’t gotten it going this year. His opportunity has been lacking with 15 Targets and 25-percent Target Rate both ranking outside the top 30. His efficiency hasn’t been there either. Yards per Reception, per Target, and per Route Run all rank outside the top 80. The Jalen Ramsey matchup in Week 1 certainly plays a factor here. A rookie QB should zero in on his stud WR leading to a bump in opportunity. Plus, we know efficiency is noisy in small samples. Zooming out, if there is one WR we can be confident can produce with whatever level of QB play, Robinson fits that bill. His price is depressed as should his rostered percentage; sounds like the perfect time to take a shot in tournaments.
Daniel Jones and Sterling Shepard
Finally, the Giants present another budget stack opportunity this week with two players under $6K. Daniel Jones gives us all the ingredients we seek for tournament QBs. Firstly, he’s throwing deep at an impressive clip. His 9.6 Air Yards per Attempt ranks No. 4. So far, these haven’t even been the so called “prayer yards,” with his 406 Completed Air Yards ranking No. 3. Even better, his passing rate increases in the red zone. He ranks No. 15 in total attempts, but No. 7 in Red Zone Attempts. On top of all of that, he’s top three is carries and rushing yards so far. All that together has resulted in a top five fantasy QB this year. He gets the friendly Atlanta Falcons defense this week fresh off surrendering massive days to Jalen Hurts and Tom Brady.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzNsnzTXcgE&ab_channel=ThePodfatherandRotoUnderworldRadio
Sterling Shepard has seized the alpha role in New York. He leads the league in receptions with 16. He’s doing his damage out of the slot (his 75 Slot Snaps ranks No. 3) and near the line of scrimmage (his 9.4 Average Target Distance ranks No. 52). This does mean he lacks the same splash play potential as other WRs. Instead, we’re getting consistent, high floor usage for fantasy. Accordingly, it’s important to build the rest of your lineup with that context in mind when utilizing a Jones-Shepard stack.
