With the ever-changing NFL landscape, new trends develop each week. Using advanced stats, metrics and analytics to identify these trends can lead fantasy grinders toward the next breakout player. Week 14 presented a few player breakouts likely to influence gameplay going forward. With that said, here are three notable trends to think about as we enter Week 15.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Justin Watson
With Mike Evans likely to miss the remainder of 2019, Justin Watson stepped up in a major way for the Buccaneers. After Evans played only 23.4-percent of Tampa Bay’s snaps, Watson recorded a 55-percent Snap Share. On his increased playing time, he notched five catches for 59 yards and a score on eight targets. He also saw a team-leading five red zone targets, elevating his scoring equity moving forward.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3IpPt0dt1M
While Watson’s game-action remains limited, he produced at a high level in college. Coming out of Penn, he recorded a 60.3-percent (98th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Dominator Rating with a 19.4 (81st-percentile) Breakout Age. He also recorded a 4.49 40-yard dash, giving him a 107.2 (87th-percentile) Speed Score. With Tampa Bay leading the NFL in pass attempts, Watson projects to play a pivotal role for the Buccaneers down the stretch.
LA Rams – Todd Gurley
After enduring “load management” to start the season, Todd Gurley looks like Los Angeles’ bell-cow back moving forward. In the last three weeks, he averaged 81.6-percent of the Rams’ snaps. This number would have been higher if the Rams didn’t pull their starters against the Cardinals in a 34-7 victory. Similarly, his usage saw a boost in this span. In the past two weeks, he has touch counts of 20 and 27, respectively.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eeCSbuiuhrk
Gurley continues to operate in one of fantasy’s friendliest roles. In just the last two weeks, he has 12 red zone touches. Expanding out to a season-long perspective, he ranks fifth in the NFL with 46 total red zone touches. Efficiency-wise, he forced 14 missed tackles in this span. While his Juke Rate sits at 22.2-percent (No. 31), his recent performance raises optimism for the feature back. Facing a Dallas team that allowed back-to-back 100-plus yard games to the Bills and Bears, Gurley is a solid option heading into the fantasy playoffs.
Miami Dolphins – Isaiah Ford
Another injury situation to monitor, DeVante Parker and Albert Wilson left last week’s Dolphin game with concussions. In their place, Isaiah Ford played 77.8-percent of Miami’s snaps. On this elevated playing time, he notched six catches for 92 yards on nine targets. Miami continues to throw at the second-highest rate in football (66-percent), making him a deep sleeper in Week 15.
Check out Isaiah Ford on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
Looking at efficiency, Ford provides only a small NFL sample. However, at Virginia Tech, Ford posted a 35.5-percent (69th-percentile) College Dominator Rating, with a 18.6 (97th-percentile) Breakout Age. While Ford recorded only two career catches prior to Sunday’s explosion, an elevated role in Miami’s pass-happy offense requires attention in an injury-riddled NFL landscape.
