Everyone died last week and that may have hurt our season-long teams, but it created a very interesting slate. Those who can capitalize on the changing landscape the most will enjoy a profitable week. What hot takes do the advanced stats and metrics point to in one of the most interesting weeks of the year? Let’s get to it.
D.J. Moore is a Top-Five WR on the Main Slate
No one loves when the Panthers lose football games more than Carolina Panthers wide receiver D.J. Moore. In Carolina wins, Moore averages 6.8 receptions, 87.5 yards and 0.4 scores. In losses, those numbers drop to 4.8 receptions, 72.2 yards and 0.2 scores
He has averaged 4.5 more fantasy points in the team’s eight losses than in their five wins. This week, they host the Seattle Seahawks and are six-point dogs.
They aren’t underdogs because of Seattle’s pass defense though. The Seahawks have allowed 271.2 passing yards per game this season, fourth-most in the NFL.
Also, did we mention that Moore is a baller?
D.J. Moore Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Moore was a generational prospect and that has been on full display throughout the season. Take advantage of him being in the perfect spot this week.
Todd Gurley Goes for 25 Points
This would be the most mundane take approximately 12 months ago, but Todd Gurley has fallen to the point where 25 points would be a nine-week high for him. This is a great week for Gurley to turn things around with his volume trending in the right direction recently.
Through the first half of the season, Gurley played on fewer than 80-percent of the Rams’ snaps in all but one game. Since then, he’s gone over that mark in two of five games and he played on 79-percent of snaps last week. He’s also hit 20 touches in three of his past five games after reaching that mark all of zero times in the first half of the season.
Despite going through a down year, Gurley has still shown flashes of his old self:
- Six Breakaway Runs – No. 21 among qualified running backs
- 45 Evaded Tackles – No. 20
- 250 Yards Created – No. 18
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYwqvBc8LPw
He’s not the first-round pick and mega-contract back that the Rams chose, but he’ll do this week at $6,000 on DraftKing.
The Rams have an implied team total of 25 points, are favored and play in a game with a 49-point total, the second-highest on the main slate.
Gurley is a cheap back seeing a lot of volume in a great game for fantasy purposes. Fire him up this week as a throwback to a time when he was actually a top running back.
It’s a Justin Watson Dance Party
A brief reminder of Justin Watson‘s dominance at a Division I university (but also a celebration of college stats appearing on player pages):
Justin Watson College Stats
Watson was a prolific college producer before most players had completed Intro to Organic Chemistry, and his age-adjusted production is a major green flag for upcoming NFL production. He’ll get the chance he needs this week with the Bucs playing their first game without Mike Evans, whose hamstring injury will keep him out for the rest of the season.
With Evans exiting early last week, Watson was the player that stepped up. He played 55-percent of the snaps and was targeted eight times. He operated in one of the most lucrative roles for a receiver: Jameis Winston‘s deep target. Evans’ 1885 yards of Total Target Distance ranks first in the NFL and is 353 more than the next closest player. His 118 targets were also sixth in the league.
Check out Justin Watson on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
If Watson takes over even a moderate portion of Evans’ volume, he’ll be a great play this week. As a cheap option on DraftKings, this is a spot where being ahead of the curve will provide a massive edge.
For bookkeeping purposes, we’ll say Watson hits 16 DraftKings points, more than 4x his salary.
