Every NFL season, millions of fantasy football players around the globe lose leagues as their “stud” early round selections fall flat on their backs. The phrase “forgive and forget” is widely underappreciated by the fantasy community. With special thanks to the advanced stats and metrics available on PlayerProfiler (and a bit of logic), we among the underworld strive to overcome our biases and find 2022 quarterback bust bounceback candidates among the sea of disappointment.
Russell Wilson
Russell Wilson’s uncharacteristic landslide in 2021 has created the best quarterback value on the board in early best ball leagues. Wilson was drafted among the top six quarterbacks from 2015-2018. He dipped to QB10 in 2019 and shot up to QB3 ahead of the 2020 season. His rise in perception was a result of the popular hashtag on Twitter: “Let Russ Cook.” Wilson was a poor chef and now enters fantasy football drafts as the QB12.
Russell Wilson Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
What went wrong?
Wilson’s poor perception dates back to the halfway point of the 2020 season. The QB3 by ADP entered the season as a master chef. His final QBR through the month of September was 139.0 and he seemed unstoppable. Until he was stopped. Through nine weeks, Wilson had four 30-plus point performances, with 21.9 being his lowest score of that stretch. From Weeks 10-17, he only surpassed 20 points one time. The main culprit for this drastic fall off was offensive scheme.
https://youtu.be/l3Lza6JpKKs
Let Russ Cook
In 2020, the Seahawks pushed for a more pass-heavy approach, but did so in an unorthodox manner. Rather than deploying more wide receiver heavy packages (such as 11 personnel); their offense focused around 12 personnel pass formations. They ran 12 personnel 36.1-percent of the time, about double the rate of 2018/19. The goal was to force opposing defenses into single high safety packages with an extra defender in the box. With less defensive backs in the secondary, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were able to torch opposing defenses on play action passes. However, with no real threat of a run game, Seattle became predictable. Defenses adjusted to using more Cover 3 and using linebackers to assist in coverage for crossers and over routes.
The Loss of 2021
The stale offensive play-call carried over into a 2021 season that would only see Wilson play 14 total games. He played through a finger injury suffered on his throwing hand and struggled to generate the same explosive playmaking ability that Fantasy Football Players were accustomed to. He dropped from 23.3 (No. 6 among qualified quarterbacks) Fantasy Points Per Game to 17.8 (No. 13) FPPG. His decline in ADP mirrors a lack of trust after two seasons of disappointment for those who put all their eggs in the Wilson basket.
The Path to Success
Wilson is all but guaranteed an improvement in 2022. The annual “will he – won’t he” debate will ring on the next few months as football media speculates potential trade destinations for the outwardly disgruntled star. If he is moved, his situation will improve overnight as his “no trade clause” will ensure he ends up on a potent offense. The smart bet is to expect him to remain in Seattle for the time being. They can fix their offense over this offseason and allow Wilson to crush his ADP of QB12. Many will be forced to accept the notion that his fantasy output will improve IF Seattle can figure out their run game.
Establish the Run
Seattle can patch together a successful play-action passing game despite poor blocking and a shallow receiving room if their running game poses a true threat to defenses. Rashaad Penny has potential as a late career breakout after impressing down the stretch last season.
Rashaad Penny has 7 career games with 12 or more carries. His averages in those games:
*23.7 FPG
*7.7 YPC (!)
*148.6 YFS/G
*1.3 TD/GADP of RB31 on Underdog is just too low for a player with this kind of upside.
— Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey) February 22, 2022
In addition, Seattle has adequate cap space to bring a talented bruiser like Melvin Gordon. Either way, an explosive run game would unlock Wilson and make him a steal at value in fantasy drafts. He’s finished among the top 12 quarterback in every healthy season of his career. He is being drafted at his floor.
Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan is the best value QB2 in superflex and best ball leagues heading into the 2022 offseason. Frankly, his ADP of QB23 on Underdog is offensive. It’s not long ago that Atlanta was a mecca for fantasy football production. Ryan is another fantasy football quarterback being drafted at his absolute floor (barring injury). He is not a reliable QB1 at this point in his career, but he is the ideal stable QB2 that can support a championship roster.
Matt Ryan Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
What Went Wrong?
The problems with Ryan’s 2021 season stem from abysmal team situation. Murphy’s Law was in full effect for the Falcons offense. What could go wrong, did go wrong. He lost Julio Jones to trade prior to a single snap of NFL football. His loss was compounded by Calvin Ridley‘s decision to step away from the game, poor offensive line play, and no run game. The Falcons made due to with rookie stud Kyle Pitts and 31-year old breakout Cordarrelle Patterson, but it was not enough. Ryan disappointed with a QB20 finish after being drafted as the QB15 that offseason.
The Path to Success
Ryan will bounce back in 2022 as the Falcons continue to grow under head coach Arthur Smith. The Ex-Titans offensive coordinator is known for his west-coast style offense that utilizes play action passing to generate big plays. His success with the Tennessee Titans in 2020 resulted in a career year for Ryan Tannehill, with 344 (No. 8) fantasy points. The Falcons have adequate offseason resources to build up the skill position players on this offense. Ryan has never finished outside the top 20 in total fantasy points. He is an easy pick as the QB23.
Jimmy Garoppolo
The case for Jimmy Garoppolo is quick and to the point. He receives an excess of criticism due to his elevated fame among the football community. The bar for Jimmy G is high after carrying the Brady torch from New England to San Francisco. Garoppolo has proven that he is not a reliable franchise quarterback. His injury frequency and inability to perform at a high level in critical moments have left him for dead among NFL fans. He will never be a high end fantasy football producer, but he is a consistent QB2 option in deep leagues.
Jimmy Garoppolo Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
What Went Wrong?
Garoppolo enters 2022 with two healthy seasons under his belt. Buying into a ninth-year player with that short of a track record is risky. He has always been a low volume passer in Kyle Shanahan’s run-heavy scheme. He has never thrown more than 500 attempts in one season. In addition, Jimmy G showed weakness in Super Bowl 55 and struggled against the Rams during the most recent NFC Championship game. His underwhelming stats and poor showing have plummeted his value to QB29 in best ball drafts.
The Path to Success
Garoppolo presents tremendous value as a floor based QB2 in deep leagues. He’s the last guaranteed starter picked in pre-draft best ball contests. Despite poor passing volume, he finished with a 16.0 Fantasy Points Per Game in his two healthy seasons. His FPPG ranked No. 15 among qualified QBs in 2021 and No. 23 in 2019. His average completion percentage over his last three seasons was 68.25-percent (37 games started). Last season, he performed well with a 7.9 (No. 9) Accuracy Rating and 58.6-percent (No. 1) Pressured Completion Percentage. His decision-making was not perfect, with 38 (No. 9) Danger Plays and 31 (No. 8) Interceptable Passes. He has enough skill for fantasy relevance, even if he is not a franchise quarterback. He’s guaranteed a starting role based on the current QB market this offseason, and will provide a handful of QB1 weeks.
Honorary Mentions
In general, QB value can be found when established starters fall in value due to arbitrary reasons. Statistical regression or injury are not a valid reason to dump a quarterback’s value. Ryan Tannehill is an excellent value this season. His ADP has dropped four-five rounds since 2021 after a dud season. Tannehill did not get worse at football. He faced an unprecedented level of losses and injury to his star talent. In addition, the loss of Arthur Smith clearly had a short term effect on the explosive-style play calling fans had grown accustomed to in Tennessee. He was clearly over-valued last offseason, but a market correction has plunged him back into the value drafting conversation.
Another prime example of arbitrary downfall is Baker Mayfield. There are concerns about his overall talent as a starter moving forward after regressing in 2021. He played through most of the season with a moderate shoulder injury. This tanked his public perception because the news was made publicly available after watching him struggle all season. His skill players also consistently underperformed or were injured. Baker is an extreme value in drafts at QB26. His situation can only improve, making him a value in deep leagues. His poor connection with Odell Beckham does not justify his falling value. He only fails to make the list because Jimmy Garoppolo is an even better value, being drafted a full round after Mayfield.
Going through some more career progressions for sack rate and team pass blocking. Everything fell apart for Baker Mayfield in 2021. Hope is he can return to near the trendline next season pic.twitter.com/pcAcsQ6GIP
— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) February 7, 2022
Conclusion
Late round quarterback has always been a viable fantasy football strategy and continues into 2022. Having a young stud is always nice, but there are plenty of available starters that will absolutely be on championship rosters. Russell Wilson is the least expensive QB1 this offseason. Other players like Matt Ryan and Jimmy Garoppolo present a strong case as value selections in fantasy drafts.
