Breaking Down Daniel Jeremiah’s First 2021 Mock Draft

by Neil Dutton · NFL

The 2020 NFL season is almost over, and many eyes are already turning to the future. The misty landscape, filled with the college prospects heading into the league in 2021. Yes, Draft Season is almost upon us.

In keeping with the season, experts are already beginning to fire out their early mock drafts. There is a whole heap that can and will happen between now and draft day. In the words of Journey, some will win and some will lose. There will be risers, and there will be fallers. But it’s interesting to see how the experts see things at this early stage.

There are few more respected draftniks than Daniel Jeremiah; draft analyst for the NFL Network. He is also a former scout for the Ravens, Browns, and Eagles. He hears things, and people in the know talk to him. Here, we will take a look at the skill position players mentioned by Jeremiah in his first NFL mock draft of the year. We will examine the prospect’s advanced stats and metrics and offer a quick thought on the landing spot.

No. 1 ) Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

I suspect DJ spent as much time thinking about this pick as the Jaguars will in the real world. Much has been said and written about Lawrence in the last three years, and he’s lived up to most of it.

Lawrence completed 66.6-percent of his passes in his three years with the Tigers, gaining 10,098 yards while tossing 90 touchdowns. His college yards per attempt mark of 9.4 isn’t mind-blowing. In fact, it’s the same as Blake Bortles. But that ghost of Jacksonville’s past won’t be enough to keep them from running Lawrence’s name up to Roger Goodell on draft day.

No. 2) New York Jets – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

The Sam Darnold era ended with the slamming of the door behind Adam Gase. The Jets are starting again at quarterback. After eking out a couple of wins in the dying days of 2020, Joe Douglas will have to make do with Zach Wilson, who was a revelation for BYU in 2020.

After logging 23 touchdown passes with a 63.6-percent completion percentage in his first two seasons, Wilson completed 73.5-percent of his 336 attempts this past fall. He added 33 touchdown passes and averaged a more-than-robust 11.0 yards per attempt. That’s a higher mark than Joe Burrow, Robert Griffin, and Russell Wilson.

No. 3) Miami Dolphins (from Houston Texans) – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

We haven’t see Ja’Marr Chase on a football field since the LSU Tigers took home the national title following the 2019 season. He sat out the last college football season due to COVID concerns. But the last time we saw him, he was pretty, pretty impressive.

Chase’s second season Breakout Age of 19.5 is in the 78th-percentile among qualified wide receivers, while his 21.1 College Yards per Reception mark is in the 96th-percentile. Taking Chase this early would be a boost for Tua Tagovailoa going into his second season, offering a big-time playmaker across from DeVante Parker.

No. 4) Atlanta Falcons – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

North Dakota State is becoming something of a quarterback factory. After Carson Wentz and Easton Stick were both drafted out of the school, with somewhat mixed results, DJ believes that Trey Lance is the next Bison quarterback heading for the pros. The Falcons need to start looking at life after Matt Ryan, and it’s fair to say that Lance is quite a different beast.

Back in 2019, when the Bisons last played a full schedule, Lance completed 67-percent of his passes on his way to 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns. He also added 1,100 yards on the ground with a further 14 scores. He’s raw, and not ready for Week 1. But the future would look bright in Atlanta. Especially if new head coach Arthur Smith can bring out the success he had with Ryan Tannehill in doing the Lance Dance.

No. 7) Detroit Lions – Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama

We like wide receivers that were dominant in college. This should certainly be true when those players have been dominant at big time schools. So that’s why Devonta Smith’s 51.3-percent (96th-percentile) College Dominator Rating should arouse our enthusiasm. He commanded a 34.6-percent Target Share for Alabama, a rate that puts him in the 95th-percentile.

Devonta Smith College Stats

Smith’s later than ideal Breakout Age can perhaps be partly attributed to the fact that he played for the Crimson Tide. But once he did break out, he was everywhere. He has 37 receiving scores over his last two seasons. DJ obviously feels Smith can take on the alpha receiver role in Detroit from Kenny Golladay, who appears to have finally had about as much of that organization as he can take.

No. 8) Carolina Panthers – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

Teddy Bridgewater was fine for the Panthers in 2020 until he wasn’t. In the first ten games of the season, he was completing almost 72-percent of his passes while averaging 254 passing yards and 1.3 scores a game. After Week 10, his numbers dropped to 236 passing yards and 0.4 scores per outing, with a near 63-percent completion rate. There is a phrase for this type of output: “Not the Answer.”

Teddy Bridgewater Game Splits: Weeks 1-10 & 11-17 – RotoViz

Justin Fields tossed 63 touchdowns to nine interceptions over the last two seasons with the Buckeyes. His 9.3 College Yards per Attempt mark isn’t terrible either, matching that of the recently retired Philip Rivers and bettering his predecessor at Ohio State, Dwayne Haskins. There are some nice offensive pieces in Carolina, they just need a quarterback to help them put everything together.

No. 11) New York Giants – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

From the school that brought you Henry Ruggs, we present Jaylen Waddle. Like Ruggs, Waddle has shown a talent for flipping the field with a 20.0 (93rd-percentile) College Yards per Reception mark. But his 12.8-percent (9th-percentile) Target Share and 15.4-percent (12th-percentile) College Dominator Rating are concerning for a first-round prospect. As is his Breakout Age, because he doesn’t have one.

Jaylen Waddle College Stats

Maybe the Giants would make better use of Waddle than the Raiders have with Ruggs. But this selection is asking me to give the Giants, and Jason Garrett, the benefit of the doubt. And to that I say no.

No. 12) San Francisco 49ers – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

When someone’s Best Comparable Player in the PlayerProfiler database is LeBron James, we’re looking at a special athlete. This would seem to be the case with Kyle Pitts. His junior season saw him reel in 43 passes for the Gators, earning 770 yards at a 17.9 clip. He also scored 12 touchdowns.

Mocking a tight end to the 49ers might seem an odd move, given George Kittle‘s presence. But people thought having Deebo Samuel would stop the 49ers from taking Brandon Aiyuk a year ago. That worked out quite well for them.

No. 19) Washington – Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

DJ describes Kadarius Toney as “electric with the ball in his hands.” This may be true, but his profile is not one that suggests a big-time producer. He certainly couldn’t be accused of being as such during his time with the Gators, only managing a 17.8-percent (27th-percentile) College Target Share and a 23.7-percent (30th-percentile) College Dominator Rating.

Toney’s 14.1 (40th-percentile) College Yards per Reception mark doesn’t exactly get the heart racing either. But there may be something to him that the pure receiving numbers don’t quite articulate. He did contribute 293 special team yards last season with one touchdown. But a first-round talent? Interesting. The Football Team are bereft of playmakers in their receiving corps, but this is still something of a head scratcher.

No. 23) New York Jets (from Seattle Seahawks) – Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

Teams should have moved past the whole “taking running backs in the first round” thing. But DJ clearly thinks his old mate Joe Douglas hasn’t, and that leads to his mocking Travis Etienne to the Jets. You can’t argue that the Jets need to not only improve their backfield, but also add playmakers all over their offense.

Travis Etienne College Stats

Etienne posted an elite-level 6.6 (87th-percentile) College Yards per Carry mark. He also made his bones as a receiver, with 1,020 receiving yards over the last two seasons. He commanded a 12.2-percent (86th-percentile) Target Share in 2020, finishing with 588 yards on his 48 receptions. A total of 78 touchdowns in four seasons is not to be sniffed at either. But I’m not sure his landing with the Jets would do too much for his dynasty stock, even as the first running back to be taken.

No. 31) Green Bay Packers – Tutu Atwell, WR, Louisville

So this is the year that the Packers invest a first-round pick on a pass-catcher. Certainly been a while. Tutu Atwell is not what you’d classify as a big name, but his college profile is quietly impressive. From his early 18.9 (92nd-percentile) Breakout Age, to his 37.8-percent (75th-percentile) College Dominator Rating, to his 35.1-percent (96th-percentile) College Target Share, he checks a lot of boxes.

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Playing with a hyper-accurate quarterback like Aaron Rodgers would certainly help Atwell’s Catch Rate, which was 61.7-percent at Louisville. He would be an intriguing sidekick for Davante Adams. But at 5-9 and 165-pounds, he will likely be just that in the pros. A sidekick.