This is Everything You Need to Know, Week 11 edition. In Week 10, we pretty much nailed the Michael Wilson breakout game, warned fantasy managers of the rise of Keaton Mitchell and what it meant for Gus Edwards’ fantasy relevance, correctly leaned into the Bengals-Texans DFS chalk, but completely flopped in our belief in the Jacksonville Jaguars. Without further ado, let’s get right into everything you need to know for NFL Week 11!
Welcome to Ty Chandler Breakout Week
Ty Chandler saw a career high 44-percent Snap Share in Week 10, turning 15 carries into 45 yards and an explosive score in the absence of both Cam Akers and Alexander Mattison. Akers is out for the remainder of the season, and Mattison is likely to be out in Week 11 with a concussion. The stars have aligned for Chandler to have a breakout week against Denver in Week 11.
While Chandler’s pedestrian three yards per carry may turn off fellow fantasy gamers, he faces a Broncos defense that has surrendered at least five yards per carry in four of their last six matchups, including two emphatic performances from James Cook and Latavius Murray on Monday night. Chandler is a smash-start this week, and could easily play himself into a season-long role with a solid outing.
Ambiguous Backfield Woes
The Carolina Panthers and the Seattle Seahawks have waded into frustrating territory in terms of their backfield opportunity distribution. After dominating the team’s rushing and receiving work in Week 9, Chuba Hubbard was relegated back to a pure rusher in Week 10 while Sanders was the primary receiving back. With this split, Hubbard is still the preferred fantasy option as he’s earning more total opportunities. However, if Hubbard continues to be relegated to a pass catcher only, his upside is severely limited. The Panthers should have more negatively-skewed Game Scripts in future matchups, so there’s some hope for the third-year back.
In Seattle, Zach Charbonnet is surging, clearing a 50-percent Snap Share in three consecutive games since the bye. He’s now taking the long down and distance and 2-minute drill work, running at least 24 routes in two of the last three games.
Last week, Charbonnet cracked 10 fantasy points for the first time in his career. This shouldn’t hinder teammate Kenneth Walker too much, as his Route Participation has remained steady throughout his teammate’s rise. He remains the primary rusher and the goal line back, but this new role split certainly raises concerns for his weekly ceiling. Walker is still an RB2 with upside, but can be limited depending on the Game Script. Charbonnet is now a low-end RB3.
JSN Rising
Up through Week 9, Jaxon Smith-Njigba‘s role – and performance – had been improving every week. Seeing increased snaps, targets and air yards, he cleared 12 fantasy points in three straight weeks from Weeks 7-9. This progress came to a screeching halt in Week 10, when he regressed to playing just 63-percent of the team’s snaps and earning a whopping -5 Air Yards.
Overall, Smith-Njigba’s rookie season progression has been promising given what we started with. However, he still has stiff target competition on a team that is only No. 18 in the NFL in Team Pass Plays Per Game. We’re a long way from JSN being a weekly starter in most fantasy leagues, but his progression makes him a buy-low stash in deeper redraft leagues.
Kyle Philips Is Not Dead Yet
Well well well, how the turn tables. Way back in August, I pinned Kyle Philips as one of my favorite stashes in deep redraft and dynasty leagues. After an early season injury re-aggravation and returning to the abysmal Ryan Tannehill offense, I thought that dream was dead. Then, a man named Will Levis came along.
Philips has earned at least five targets in each of the past two games with Levis at the helm, producing at least 60 receiving yards in each of those games. My main reasoning behind Philips was his ability to get open and earn targets as a rookie, drawing a 30-percent Target Rate on a 56-percent Route Win Rate in his rookie season. He’s followed that up with a 25-percent Target Rate with Levis on a seasonal 53-percent (No. 16) Route Win Rate. Philips’ involvement in the offense is steadily increasing, and he is now a must-roster in deep leagues.
Implied Team Totals
Highest Implied Team Totals
- Miami Dolphins (29.75)
- Detroit Lions (27.75)
- San Francisco 49ers (26.75)
- Houston Texans (26.5)
- Dallas Cowboys (26.25)
The main slate is filled with some interesting games this week. Four of the five teams on the top implied team totals list find themselves in potentially one-sided affairs, but all should find themselves with ample opportunities for fantasy points on the offensive end. Studs on these teams should be heavy on our exposure lists.
Houston and Arizona are listed as the highest game total on the slate, and, at value, could be the game stack that wins DFS tournaments. With CJ Stroud, Kyler Murray, Marquise Brown, Tank Dell, and Trey McBride squaring up in potentially the highest scoring game on the slate, you’ll want heavy exposure to this game.
Lowest Implied Team Totals
- New York Giants (15)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (15.25)
- Carolina Panthers (15.75)
- Cleveland Browns (16)
- New York Jets (16.5)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the “sore thumb” of this group. While the 49ers defense has been stifling to many teams, there’s simply too much talent on the Bucs offense to lump them in with the rest of this low-projected group. If the field’s exposure on this team is as low as their point total implies, then leaning into the contrarianism could pay dividends. The 49ers have been susceptible to big plays, and that’s exactly where Mike Evans and Rachaad White excel.
DFS Values: Kyler Murray ($6100), Rachaad White ($6000), Derrick Henry ($6300), Christian Kirk ($6000), DeAndre Hopkins ($6100), Marquise Brown ($5300), Trey McBride ($4300)
Injury Report
Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford returned to practice in limited fashion on Wednesday. Reports have stated that Stafford should be good to go for Week 11, but the signing of Carson Wentz doesn’t necessarily ease the concerns of fantasy managers. If Stafford isn’t a full participant by Friday, expect murky waters heading into Sunday’s matchup. If Stafford can log a full practice, it’s nearly certain he’ll return to the lineup. Should he play, don’t worry too much about a production dip.
Alexander Mattison
Alexander Mattison is still in concussion protocol and is unlikely to suit up Sunday. Even if he logs a full practice later in the week, the odds of a return is relatively low given what we’ve seen in previous cases. Ty Chandler looks to completely lead the Vikings backfield in week 11.
Pat Freiermuth
Pat Freiermuth had his practice window opened and was a limited participant on Wednesday. Early reports are that he’ll suit up in Week 11, but this hamstring injury has hindered him for quite awhile now. Despite the positive reports, follow this situation closely. Since he’s been out of commission for awhile, you likely already have your backup plans in place.
Justin Fields
Justin Fields is expected to return to the field in Week 11, and so far reports have acted with a lot of certainty. It seems the Tyson Bagent era is over, and we’ll see the former QB1 back at the helm for the Chicago Bears against the Lions on Sunday.
De’Von Achane
The electric rookie has had his return-to-play window opened, and it sounds likely he returns to the lineup this week.
Michael Thomas
While the Saints are on bye this week, it’s important to note that the knee injury Michael Thomas suffered was quoted to be “fairly significant” by head coach Dennis Allen. Given Thomas’s history, this is a red flag. Fantasy managers should be throwing trade offers, or waiver claims, in on Rashid Shaheed in the event that Thomas were to miss time after the bye (which at this point appears to be the likely scenario).
Conclusion
Week over week, we’ve been paying attention to the right details and will continue to refine our process as we learn lessons from our losses. By continuing to attack the right matchups, and following the right usage and efficiency trends, we’ll continue to DOMINATE in fantasy matchups and DFS lineups. Happy hunting!
