Week 11 is a week full of value from Brian Hill to Deebo Samuel. We’re not here to talk about them. We’re here to talk about #taeks so hot they’ll burn your face off your face. Let’s see what fire the advanced data and metrics have uncovered this week.
Tyler Boyd Finds the End Zone and Hits 20 DraftKings Points
For most receivers who lead their team in targets, going over 20 points isn’t a difficult task. For any player on the Bengals, it’s a herculean task. Tyler Boyd has scored a single touchdown this year and has hit the 20-point mark twice.
This week, more than any other, he’s set up to break the cycle of getting targeted and not producing. The Bengals average 44.3 pass attempts per game, second in the NFL. This week they face the Raiders, in Oakland, as 10.5-point underdogs. Their pattern of throwing often will continue without fail.
This is especially impactful for Boyd, who controls 25.4-percent of the Bengals targets. His 90 targets are top-five in the NFL this season.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VE-v9b7K25U
Finally, Boyd’s matchup against the Raiders pass defense is as easy as they come. Oakland has allowed their opponents to average 8.1 yards per attempt, third-worst in the league. Boyd has been getting the volume all year, the Bengals offense has just prevented him from making the most of it. Expect that to turn around in a major way this week.
John Brown and Josh Allen Combine for 50
John Brown has been about to go off for nearly a dozen weeks now, but this is actually the big one. The combination of Brown’s 14.2 (No. 21 among qualified wide receivers) Average Target Distance and his 71 (No. 15) targets has put him in an elite tier of receivers in terms of volume. He is one of just six receivers to have over 1,000 yards of Total Target Distance. This season, Brown has a 34-percent share of Buffalo’s Air Yards.
This week, Brown faces the Dolphins in a matchup that is easy–they allow teams to average 7.8 yards per attempt on them, two spots above the Raiders–and well-suited to him. The Dolphins have been targeted by deep balls more than almost any other team. Their opponents have an average target distance of 9.6. Only Detroit has been targeted farther downfield.
For Josh Allen, hitting 25 or more points is pretty simple. Brown reels in a deep ball and Allen goes to work on the ground.
Josh Allen 2019 Rushing Stats
There’s not much to say about his rushing production other than if it weren’t for Lamar Jackson setting NFL records, Allen would be the best rushing quarterback in the league by nearly every measure. He’s also attempted the 10th-most Deep Balls this season despite being 19th in total attempts, if you needed any more reasons to pair him with Brown.
Brown hasn’t hit 20 points since Week 1, but his price has risen significantly in the past month. His ownership should be pretty low despite having one of the highest ceilings of any player this week.
Josh Jacobs Pummels the Bengals (as Everyone Does)
For record-keeping purposes, we’ll say Josh Jacobs goes over 28 DraftKings points this week. This take meshes particularly well with the Boyd call. If the Raiders take a massive lead, it’s likely that they lean on Jacobs while running the clock out during the second half.
Check out Josh Jacobs on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
The Bengals have been crushed by opposing backs all season. They allow 29.8 DraftKings points to opposing backfields this season, good for the third-most in the league. Jacobs should have no problem tearing apart this defense, he’s been stunningly efficient through the first half of his rookie campaign. He’s top-10 in Yards Created, (312) Breakaway Runs (10) and Evaded Tackles (52).
Josh Jacobs 2019 Efficiency Metrics
Most importantly, Jacobs can buoy his middling receiving volume with scoring. The young back is sixth in the NFL with 34 red zone touches, averaging 3.4 per game. This week, the Raiders quietly own the highest implied team total of any team on the slate at 29.5. That total has already risen a quarter of a point since opening.
Combining the high-leverage volume he has seen inside his opponents’ 20-yard line with the outlandish scoring Vegas expects the Raiders to achieve gives Jacobs one of the highest touchdown projects among any back this week. If he runs a little hot, he can easily clear 30 points.
