Underdog ADP Risers and Fallers – Early August Edition

by Jonathan Lange · Best Ball Plays & Strategy
Week 2 Fantasy Football

Training Camp is finally here! Underdog ADP is moving at a rapid pace! Every hype tweet (or Post?) leads to best ball drafters either pushing up a rookie RB that will be locked in a committee or fading a second-year receiver that recently received fresh target competition. And unfortunately, injuries have already occurred on the field. This has been reflected in the ADP movement. There’s even more movement on the way when preseason games start up. Without further delay, here are the Underdog Risers and Fallers for Early August!

Risers

Skyy Moore | Kansas City Chiefs

ADP: 98 (Early 9th round – up 25 spots since June 1st)

Honestly, I could also place Richie James here who has jumped up 10 spots since June 1st. Now, both are primed to climb even higher in the rankings. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman are no longer there. As a result, over 300 slot snaps are up for grabs. The opportunity is there for Skyy Moore. He’s now cracked the top 100 players in ADP and projects to go even higher with the latest injury to Kadarius Toney. Moore had a great profile coming out of the draft. He’s got draft capital. However, his rookie year was a statistical disappointment.

With a year of learning the system, he could have big weeks as Smith-Schuster did. We will need to monitor the competition between Moore and James. Selecting the correct player here could prove to be a profitable choice.

Zamir White | Las Vegas Raiders

ADP: 189 (late 15th round – up 24 spots since June 1st)

Zamir White has moved up two whole rounds through the summer. That ADP rise has been fueled lately by the potential of a hold out by Josh Jacobs. The Raiders are attempting to navigate the murky waters of big money contracts to all-pro running backs. White was drafted last year by Vegas, and he was rarely used. He only netted a total of 17 carries. I’m sure that Zamir will have production, but the public is sleeping on Brandon Bolden.

Zamir White Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Bolden is admittedly an unsexy selection. However, he had the same amount of carries as Zamir last year. Additionally, he operated as the pass catching back behind Jacobs. I’m not advocating taking Bolden, but I would not be surprised if he eats into Zamir’s opportunities more than we realize. Also, remember that Bolden came with Josh McDaniels last offseason.

Ryan Tannehill | Tennessee Titans

ADP: 199 (Mid 16th round – up 16 spots since June 1st)

DeAndre Hopkins is a Tennessee Titan. While people debated about who was the biggest loser of the deal, it was generally a consensus shared opinion that Ryan Tannehill profited greatly from this team acquisition. The Titans have always been a low volume passing offense, but I’m inclined to believe we could see more passing attempts this season.

The team brought in Tim Kelly from Houston to be the new offensive coordinator. Kelly spent one year with Hopkins, which happened to be the year that Hopkins posted his highest slot rate of his career! Tannehill won’t be a top 12 QB next season, but a QB 2 with top five finishes? It’s a possibility when you consider his 7.8 yards per attempt (No. 5 in NFL) and 51.5-percent pressured completion percentage (No. 4 in NFL) rankings from 2023 that he still has something left in the tank.

Tank Bigsby | Jacksonville Jaguars

ADP: 136 (Early 11th round – up 15 spots since June 1st)

If it wasn’t for Calvin Ridley, Tank Bigsby would be the highest ADP mover out of Duval County this Summer. Recent praise from running backs coach Bernie Parmalee only created more steam for his ADP, and he’s an injury away from becoming the lead back on a potent offense. He’s a great dart throw this late in drafts. Additionally, all the training camp reports have been glowing. The team may choose to limit his playing time early in the season to go with more seasoned players such as D’Ernest Johnson or JaMycal Hasty. Bigsby is great, but similar to Zamir White, he may not be the true handcuff we perceive him to be.

Leonard Fournette | Free Agent

ADP: 190 (Late 15th round – up  8 spots since July 17th)

This one is sensible to me. There’s been little activity on Leonard Fournette‘s schedule lately. In fact, he’s only had one try out over the past two weeks with the Patriots. That’s it. But he could be a valuable member of a backfield.

He may not provide much of a threat as a rusher. However, he can still catch plenty of passes, and in a .5 PPR format, that’s an advantage. He will eventually be signed this season, and most recently on the game plan with Matty Kiwoom, Chris Buonagura was saying that he couldn’t stop drafting him because he was going so late in drafts. Sometimes it pays to listen to the sharps!

Fallers

Treylon Burks | Tennessee Titans

ADP: 79 (Mid 6th round – down 9 spots since July 17th)

Before the Hopkins deal, Treylon Burks was the projected No. 1 target getter in this low volume Tennessee offense. Now at best he is the No. 2 or No. 3 depending on how high you are on Chig Okonkwo. He’s still likely to occupy the outside of the field while Hopkins commands the middle, but it doesn’t feel great to grab a secondary option from this passing game. I’m excited for Treylon for 2023. You can call it take lock, but if you can get him at the sixth round, I’m hopeful that it can prove to be a quality selection.

Wan’Dale Robinson | New York Giants

ADP: 208 (early 17th round – down 37 spots since June 1st)

Wan’Dale Robinson keeps falling. Since June 1st he has fallen a full three rounds in Underdog ADP. Now, he’s on the PUP while his team cannot stop signing slot receivers. The Giants receiver room is a bit of a mess outside of Isaiah Hodgins and Darren Waller. I would expect those Giants receivers to be the only ones that maintain a steady ADP through the remainder of the summer. With the lack of information around his injury, and the loaded depth chart in front of him, Robinson is a late round dart throw at best.

Kadarius Toney | Kansas City Chiefs

ADP: 80 (Mid 7th round – down 7 spots since July 17th)

Every offseason with Kadarius Toney is a cycle. We happened to get the injury seal broken for 2023 early. Toney had to have surgery on his knee after the first day of practice. While he should be back near the start of Week 1, there’s a clear history of lower body injuries with Toney.

He’s great for best ball because he will eventually come back healthy and be productive for a few games before going down with likely a soft tissue injury later in the season. But that seventh-round price tag is a hefty price for a player with a lengthy injury history.

Kendre Miller | New Orleans Saints

ADP: 147 (Early 12th round – down 13 spots since June 1st)

In my last article, I projected the downfall of Kendre Miller‘s ADP. While the recent fall hasn’t been exactly a landslide, sharp drafters are now taking more and more Alvin Kamara with rumors of a lessened suspension. Or, they have been taking Jamaal Williams who profiles as a productive short yardage back. But Miller is a rookie, and his ADP never got the chance to climb while starting OTA’s on the PUP. Now he’s cleared to play but is stuck behind two backs. Plus, we all know Taysom Hill is lurking……Always lurking.

Juwan Johnson | New Orleans Saints

ADP:  175 (Mid 14th round – down 15 spots since June 1st)

Let’s go full Saints for the last part of this article and talk about Juwan Johnson. Johnson is a fine No. 2 tight end for best ball rosters, and there’s potential for him to have a few top five weeks if he can mesh well with Derek Carr. But as I stated earlier, Taysom Hill is there, and Foster Moreau has been given a clean bill of health after being diagnosed with Hodgkins Lymphoma. Suddenly, the Saints’ tight end room is incredibly crowded. Add in the talented receivers Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed, a pass catching back in Kamara, and targets will be hard to come by in this offense.

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