Underdog ADP Risers and Fallers – July Edition

by Jonathan Lange · Best Ball Plays & Strategy
Week 2 Fantasy Football

Welcome back to another edition of Underdog ADP risers and fallers! We’re now in mid-July, so the fantasy football marketplace is preparing for the influx of redraft players that join us every summer. The best ball streets are getting more crowded than ever, and Underdog keeps delivering with new contests. There have been movers, and in this edition, I will zoom out and see how far some ADPs have changed since the start of summer. Also, for my last faller I have a pre-emptive special on a backfield that could see a shift in ADP for all three backs! Without further ado, let’ s see what changes have occurred in the best ball streets at Underdog Fantasy!

Risers

Tim Patrick | Denver Broncos

ADP: 173 (Early 14th round- up 20 spots)

The second biggest ADP riser since June 1st is Tim Patrick. Patrick has always been supported by his truthers who vehemently backed the fifth-year receiver. Recently, these supporters were validated in a massive. James Palmer of the NFL Network recently spoke about the hopes of a bounce back season for the Broncos and said, “I’ve had multiple people in the building tell me he (Patrick) is the best football player in that receiver room.”

Sign me up! Patrick is the perfect late round receiver to take in best ball with his big play ability to stretch the field. In 2021, he had over 1,000 air yards. Additionally, in each season in the league he has finished with over 11 yards per catch. If the new offense brought in by Sean Payton can unlock the speedster. he can win a few weeks, and possibly your season.

DeVante Parker | New England Patriots

ADP: 193 (Early 17th round- up 15 spots)

While Tim Patrick has excitement as an unknown who has never been a consistent producer, DeVante Parker is much different. He’s also much less exciting. Parker has jumped more than twelve spots after signing his new contract with the Patriots. The news of JuJu Smith Schuster with a lingering knee injury also helps his case. It could mean less target competition for Parker.

Even without the team adding DeAndre Hopkins, Parker holds limited upside. However, drafters would be hard pressed to find another wide receiver going in the 17th round that has a starting role in his team’s offense. Parker is the only receiver on this list that was able to compile a fantasy relevant season. This happened to be in 2019. Fun fact- Parker scored nine touchdowns in that 2019 season. The four seasons after that breakout he has combined to score exactly nine touchdowns.

Nico Collins | Houston Texans

ADP: 122 (Early 11th round- up 10 spots)

Who better to write about Nico Collins than a PlayerProfiler staff member that has him down as one of their “My Guys” for the 2023 season! Nico is set up to be the starting X receiver in the new look Texans offense led by C.J. Stroud. Collins has never posted impressive fantasy point totals. However, he does boast a 20-percent target share and 40-percent red zone target share from the 2022 season. Add in that offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik has Collins watching old Julio Jones film from when he was in this offensive system. Now, the foundation has now been laid for a third-year breakout. He’s worth the cost of a 10th or 11th round selection.

Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers

ADP: 171 (Early 15th round- up six spots)

They say that three things are guaranteed in life: Death, Taxes, and Kyle Shanahan trashing Trey Lance any time a microphone is in front of him. So far, all the reports out of Niners camp have been positive on Brock Purdy. It doesn’t matter what your opinion of him as a quarterback. It’s odd to see a quarterback going this late when his top three targets and pass catching running back are being drafted within the first 75 picks. Shanahan and Lynch seem to clearly prefer Purdy. As a result, he’s going continue to creep up draft boards while Lance continues to fall.

Antonio Gibson | Washington Commanders

ADP: 98 (Early 9th round- up 18 spots since June 1st)

I wanted to include Antonio Gibson as the final riser of this article because this massive shift in ADP shows that the fantasy community warmed up to him with everything that has come out of Washington. Rather than a quick pop in ADP, it’s been a more of a low simmer. Now, he’s finally made it to the ninth round after being in the 11th and 12th rounds during the springtime. We are all aware of his impressive profile. Additionally, with Bieniemy calling the shots on this new look offense, there’s hope that even if he isn’t getting 60-percent of the snaps he can still be placed in favorable position to collect fantasy points. No matter what your team build, he’s an incredible asset to any fantasy roster.

Fallers

Jayden Reed | Green Bay Packers  

ADP: 168 (Late 14th round- down five spots)

This one isn’t a massive faller. However, this is more about the hype surrounding second year receiver Romeo Doubs than it is about Jayden Reed. Reed has had a quiet start to camp, which contrary to popular belief, is completely fine! He’s a rookie learning the ins and outs of the professional game.

And then there were reports that Doubs has made major strides at OTA’s. He was even mentioned as the most outstanding player at OTA’s. Reed is a fine receiver, and personally, I prefer taking him in the 14th rather than Doubs in the ninth.

Dalvin Cook | Free Agent

ADP: 89 (Middle 8th round- down 16 spots since June 1st)

Dalvin Cook, easily the most talented football player on the faller list, has been on a sharp free fall since he left the Vikings. There is a report that the Dolphins have sent a contract out there for him, but that has been the only reporting that we have heard on Cook.

The newest rumor out there is that the New York Jets and New England Patriots have interest in the former Viking. While the Patriots wouldn’t provide a fantasy boom, the Jets and Dolphins would hold potential for fantasy greatness.

Pierre Strong | New England Patriots

ADP: 205 (Early 18th round- down 6 spots)

Speaking of the Patriots! This slight fall makes sense as Pierre Strong is the No. 2, currently. However, he would be the No. 3 if Dalvin Cook arrived in Foxborough, but at this time it’s uncertain what will happen there. The other report hurting this RB Sleeper are the downright strange tweets praising Ty Montgomery‘s work in practice.

Call me skeptical, but I highly doubt that Montgomery will make a strong impression on this new offense in 2023. Even if Montgomery makes little impact, and Cook signs elsewhere, the ceiling is limited for Strong as long as Rhamondre Stevenson is healthy.

Chase Brown | Cincinnati Bengals

ADP: 191 (Late 15th round- down 16 spots since June 1st)

I’ll be brief on this one. Early in the spring, everyone was certain that Joe Mixon would be headed for a suspension, or even cut, creating an opening on an elite offense. However, it’s clear that Mixon is the RB1, and there’s no suspension in 2023 for Mixon.

In fact, as of July 14th, he has restructured his contract, keeping him locked in as the RB1 for the Bengals. While the team does have Treyveon Williams and Chris Evans on the roster, the team did have Samaje Perine leave in free agency. Additionally, Perine had some useable weeks in 2022. Selecting the correct handcuff can be a profitable decision for this backfield.

Jamaal Williams (ADP of 126) and Kendre Miller (ADP of 138)

New Orleans Saints

Okay, I cheated on this last one. Consider this my crystal ball prediction. Legal updates have come through on Alvin Kamara and according to Saints Beat Writer Nick Underhill – he expects a four-game suspension for Kamara.

Before his case was settled as a misdemeanor, there were rumors of a suspension ranging from six to ten games. However, the context of the legal case has changed, and Alvin is facing a much less severe suspension. Kendre has the lower ADP of the two, so his ADP may fall the sharpest. However, it is something to keep an eye on as the Kamara news develops.