With the NFL Draft fast approaching, time is fleeting to take advantage of the incoming rookie class at their pre-draft ADPS. This article will discuss some rookie targets available compared to veterans available at similar ADPs. Should you be selecting the prospect in Underdog Fantasy Best Ball drafts or pivot to the similarly priced veteran?
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WRs:
Rome Odunze (45.7 ADP) vs Amari Cooper (51.6 ADP)
Rome Odunze has checked every box this year’s pre-draft process. He’s displayed elite athleticism, posting a 111.1 Height Adjusted Speed Score. Coupling this athleticism with an elite 19.3 Breakout Age and an above average 22.3-percent, 61st-percentile, College Target Share, Odunze would likely be the consensus WR1 in any other draft class.
Amari Cooper was one of the keys to fantasy football success last season. With the aid of Joe Flacco, Cooper posted 51.5 fantasy points in Week 16. He also ranked inside the top 10 among all wide receivers with 1,820 Air Yards. Now entering his age 30 season, Cooper will have to reestablish rapport with DeShaun Watson whom he only posted one top 12 finish with out of the six games Watson played last season.
The allure of drafting Odunze is tempting when compared to the that of drafting Cooper especially with the lack of chemistry Cooper displayed with Watson. However, the devil you know is sometimes better than the devil you don’t know. With Odunze’s landing spot wide open, he can easily enter the NFL as the WR3 on his team if he finds himself drafted by the Bears at pick 9 or the Jets at pick 10. A landing spot like this would make it hard to pay off at ADP. I’d personally lean toward taking Cooper here, but ideally your exposure should be split evenly in Underdog Fantasy Best Ball drafts in case Odunze is drafted to the ideal landing spot.
Xavier Worthy (97.9 ADP) vs. Courtland Sutton (102.6 ADP)
Xavier Worthy set the NFL combine record with a 4.21 40 Yard Dash. While this fact along makes him an intriguing prospect, especially in Underdog Fantasy Best Ball formats, Worthy has a college production profile to make you excited about drafting him. Despite his small frame of 165 pounds, Worthy posted a 18.4, 97-percentile, Breakout Age at Texas. He also saw a 27.8-percent College Target Share while playing alongside potential first round teammate Adonai Mitchell.
Unlike Worthy, there is nothing diminutive about Courtland Sutton. The 6-3, 218-pound Sutton bullied his way to 10 touchdowns last season. While Sutton hasn’t crested 1,000 yards receiving since 2019, he had his best fantasy production since that season, averaging 11.9 fantasy points per game. While there is quarterback uncertainty with Sutton’s situation, he should receive the plurality of the targets in the Broncos office.
Upside is what wins championships. While Sutton appears to have a safer floor than Worthy, Sutton’s fantasy production can very easily crater in 2024 due to touchdown regression and sub-optimal quarterback play. With an ADP close to pick 100, Worthy’s upside of landing on a team like the Chiefs, or Bills, is worth his selection over Sutton nearly every time.
RBs:
Jonathon Brooks (119 ADP) vs. Devin Singletary (115 ADP)
Due to an ACL tear sustained in November, Jonathan Brooks hasn’t tested the entire offseason. He is an athletic black box prospect who will likely need some time to ramp up after the season starts. However, Brooks presents as an exciting Best Ball selection because of anticipated second round draft capital and the all-purpose ability he flashed last season at Texas.
Devin Singletary reunited with Brian Daboll this offseason to replace Saquon Barkley as the Giants lead running back. Despite a great offensive environment last season in Houston, Singletary failed to crest 1,000 yards rushing and averaged only 9.8 fantasy points per game. He is in a much worse offensive environment this season with the Giants.
While Brooks’ health, athleticism, and landing spot, are important questions that fantasy players need answers to, his ADP will likely be rising once those questions start becoming answered. It is hard to see a scenario where Singletary’s ADP spikes post NFL Draft as the Giants can very easily add running back competition via the draft. Selecting Brooks provides much more upside than taking Singletary especially since Brooks could easily take over a backfield during the tournament advancement period.
Jaylen Wright (137.9 ADP) vs Zach Charbonnet (136.3 ADP)
Jaylen Wright melted faces at NFL Combine, posting a 4.38 40 Yard Dash. He also excelled in drills, posting a 131.6, 95th-percentile Burst Score. Thanks in part to this explosiveness Wright turned only 137 rushing attempts into over 1,000 yards in college with Tennessee last season. Wright is a home run hitting type of running back that also has a bell cow frame of 210 pounds.
Zach Charbonnet is the RB2 on the Seahawks behind Kenneth Walker. Despite being drafted in the second round last season, Charbonnet saw minimal opportunity until Walker missed games last season due to injury. Even when Charbonnet saw touches, he was not efficient with them. He averaged 3.78 Yards Created Per Touch.
This ADP dichotomy is outright baffling. Jaylen Wright profiles as an explosive runner that can sneak into your Underdog lineup anytime he cashes in on a long run with his blistering speed. Charbonnet on the other hand is likely only forcing his way into lineups in the event of a Kenneth Walker injury. Target Jaylen Wright over Zach Charbonnet at their ADPs.
For more from PlayerProfiler, check out this article – NFL Draft Rumors – Trades and Moves for All 32 NFL Teams (playerprofiler.com)
