Underdog Pick ‘Ems Wildcard Round | 2024 NFL Playoffs

by Ahaan Rungta · Betting & Props

This is Underdog Pick ‘Ems Wildcard Round – NFL Playoffs 2024!  This is the place to be for finding the best-value weekly spots to pick whether players will go higher or lower than their projection. As usual, if you want weekly audio content for pick ‘ems, including getting in early on some lines that will move early in the week, check out the Pick ‘Em Power Hour every Wednesday and Friday with us hosts, Ahaan S. Rungta (@AhaanRungta) and Trevor Tipton (@FFCULater).

If you would like to tail our plays or create your own, join Underdog today with promo code UNDERWORLD for a 100% deposit match up to $100 USD upon entry. Here are our picks for the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs.

Ahaan’s Wild Card Round Picks

Matthew Stafford (LAR) HIGHER than 19.65 fantasy points

For our first entry of the NFL playoffs, we will target a game stack in the matchup with the highest Vegas total of the Wild Card Round. Sportsbooks are expecting a shootout between the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions.

This makes sense in a matchup of two potent offenses against two defenses that can struggle from time to time.

Lions Defensive Identify

To start off, we will target the identity of the Lions defense. They are strong against the run but porous against the pass. In the regular season, they ranked No. 4 in rush EPA per play allowed. However, they ranked No. 25 in dropback EPA per play allowed. As a result, they allowed the No. 5-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Stafford cleared this projection in four of his last six games. Additionally, the Rams are the No. 1 offense in the NFL by points per drive and EPA per play when Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua are all on the field at the same time. It is time for the former Lions legend to put the team on his back in his first career playoff game at Ford Field.

Recommended: 0.50u on the two-pick entry

Going along with the theory that the Rams should have very few issues moving the ball on Detroit’s terrible pass defense, the Lions will have to keep pace through the air as well against a Rams defense that ranked No. 18 in dropback EPA per play allowed in the regular season. With tight end Sam LaPorta playing through injury, there is a very clear safety blanket for Jared Goff in this contest—the elite wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Sun God has cleared this projection in eight of his 14 games this season with a route participation over 80%. This explains why this line is heavily juiced to the over on sportsbooks. This projection could close at 8.0 by kickoff. However, we made this pick live on the Friday show at 7.5.

Trevor’s Wild Card Round Picks

Jaylen Waddle (MIA) HIGHER than 48.5 rush+rec yards 

In the upcoming NFL Wild Card matchup between the Miami Dolphins and the Kansas City Chiefs, all eyes will be on the electrifying wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. The third-year pro has been a key cog in the Dolphins’ offense this season, and there are several reasons to believe he will surpass the 48.5 Rushing + Receiving yards line against the Chiefs.

First and foremost, Waddle has proven to be a dynamic and versatile weapon for the Dolphins, averaging a robust 72.4 receiving yards per game. With 1,014 receiving yards on the season, he has shown a consistent ability to make plays and contribute to the team’s success. Waddle has also surpassed this yardage mark in ten straight games. With the current weather conditions, expect Mike McDaniel to use Waddle in a Deebo Samuel type role for this game. 

We know how good the Chiefs pass defense has been this season. With Hill returning to KC, all eyes will be on him. Waddle is going to have a ton of screens, slants, and jet sweeps open up for him while KC has to focus on stopping Hill and the Dolphins run game. In the Week 9 matchup, the Dolphins used Waddle on a running play that gained 12 yards. I expect these kinds of plays to be in the game plan once again. Therefore, I expect multiple attempts rushing plus plenty of volume on short passes this Saturday night. 

Jaylen Warren (PIT) HIGHER than 3.0 Receptions

This wild card weekend, the Pittsburgh Steelers face off against the Buffalo Bills. This matchup promises to be an exhilarating game. While much of the focus is on the big names and star players such as Diontae Johnson and Josh Allen, there’s an underrated X-factor that could make all the difference in this matchup: Steelers running back Jaylen Warren. In this article, we’ll explore why Warren is poised to have more than 3.0 receptions against the Bills, and how his performance could impact the outcome of the game.

Rudolph’s Impact

Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph has a reputation for checking down to his running backs when under pressure. This tendency could lead to an increased number of targets for Warren. This is especially if the Bills’ pass rush is able to disrupt the Steelers’ passing game.

With Warren’s reliable hands and ability to make plays in space, he could be a valuable safety valve for Rudolph in this crucial game. Warren has had five straight games with more than 3.0 receptions. Considering the Bills have a stout pass rush, plus the weather conditions, we expect Warren to have a ton of targets. 

Editor’s Note: This article was written before the news of the Steelers vs Bills game being moved to Monday, January 15th.

Recommended: 0.50u on the two-pick entry

While the Bills have a formidable defense overall, they’ve been known to give up receptions to opposing running backs. On average, they allow five receptions per game to running backs, which ranks them in the bottom 10 of the league.

Additionally, they give up 8.3 yards per route run to running backs while being one of the best defenses in the NFL against the pass.  This vulnerability in their defense could provide Warren with ample opportunities to make an impact in the passing game. We can count on Warren to carry us to a winner in this first round matchup.