In this weekly series, I’ll outline my five favorite picks for the Sunday slate and provide a sample slip. As always, mix up the combinations and sacrifice a lamb or two.
Week 11 Underdog Pick’em Plays
Adam Trautman OVER 26.5 Rec Yds
Confidence Level: Higher than high
The modest 26.5 receiving yards line for Adam Trautman is bound to hit the OVER. Trautman’s usage has surged since Trevor Siemian took over in Week 8, resulting in at least 6 targets per game. Moreover, his 3 (No. 3 among qualified tight ends) Drops show that he is catching the majority of these targets. Additionally, he has hit the OVER on 26.5 receiving yards in two out of three games since Week 8. Last but not least, Philadelphia ranks bottom-5 in yards allowed to tight ends.
This line is a wonderful gift for the OVER lovers because opportunity and situation are providing a smash pick for the Adam Trautman line on Underdog Fantasy.
Michael Pittman UNDER 65.5 Rec Yds
Line Update: 57.5 Rec Yds
Confidence Level: High
While Michael Pittman has hit the over on this line 60-percent of the time, he hasn’t been successful when matched up against top-12 cornerbacks, per PlayerProfiler Cornerback Rankings. The only time Pittman hit the OVER against a top-12 CB was in Week 1 against Jalen Ramsey. Otherwise, he has never hit the OVER when matched up against a top-12 CB. This week, Pittman will be pitted against one the best cornerbacks in Tre’Davious White. White has yet to allow more than 52 yards to receivers through Week 10.
Pittman will face tough sledding this weekend in a windy and rainy game at Buffalo.
My confidence would remain high if this line creeps closer to 59.5 receiving yards.
Dak Prescott UNDER 300.5 Pass Yds
Confidence Level: High
I’m confident that the matchup between the Cowboys and Chiefs will be one of the best games this weekend, but my confidence in Dak Prescott hitting the OVER is low.
Prescott has hit the OVER in three out of ten games this season. One game was against Tampa Bay, a team with an elite rushing defense and a high scoring offense. The second game he hit 302 passing yards in a divisional matchup against the Giants with an above average rushing defense. And the third game was an overtime shootout against the Patriots.
Dak has hit the UNDER every time when matched up against a bottom-12 rushing defense. The Chargers, Eagles and Falcons all have bottom-12 rushing defenses and Prescott failed to eclipse 300 yards in any of these games. Add in the fact that Amari Cooper is ruled OUT due to a positive COVID test, and this feels like will be an Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard week against a weak Kansas City rushing defense.
Justin Fields UNDER 248.5 Pass Yds
Confidence Level: High
Justin Fields has hit the OVER in the past two weeks, but Baltimore will limit his production with their aggressive defense. It may seem scary to take the UNDER on Fields after he compiled 336 total yards against Pittsburgh and 278 total yards against San Francisco, but each of these defenses rank outside the top-12 in quarterback pressures. Baltimore, however, ranks No. 7 in quarterback pressures. And Fields’ 35.4-percent (No. 30 among qualified quarterbacks) Pressured Completion Percentage indicates that he will have a difficult time moving the ball through the air this weekend.
Jeff Wilson UNDER 77.5 Rush Yds
Confidence Level: High
San Francisco will have Jeff Wilson assume the majority of snaps this weekend, but he will not overcome the 77.5 rushing and receiving yards line against Jacksonville. The Jaguars have a surprisingly good rushing defense, so I can’t visualize Wilson gaining significant yards on the ground with his below average workout metrics. His 92.2 (36th-percentile) Speed Score and 114.5 (28th-percentile) Burst Score are red flags for taking the OVER on a 77.5 rushing yards prop.
Week 10 Recap (3 for 5)
I will recap my achievements and shortcomings for last week’s slip at the end of each article.
Emmanuel Sanders OVER 52.5 Rec Yds 
This pick did not deliver because the Bills blew out the Jets. Emmanuel Sanders had a 61.4-percent Snap Share, his lowest of the season. Players like Gabriel Davis and Isaiah McKenzie saw more playing time at the expense of Sanders.
A.J. Dillon OVER 44.5 Rush Yds 
The OVER was thankfully rewarded when A.J. Dillon smashed for 122 total yards. Yes, most of this was attributed to the absence of Aaron Jones. But, he nearly hit 40 yards in the first half with Jones active, so he was on the right path to his this line with or without Jones.
Teddy Bridgewater UNDER 254.5 Pass Yds
Teddy Bridgewater performed poorly against the Eagles, shown by a low 6.3 Yards Per Attempt. Philadelphia continued to employ a run-heavy offense, resulting in fewer opportunities for Bridgewater to display his elite skillset.
Mike White UNDER 237.5 Pass Yds
A whopping 44 pass attempts from the one-hit wonder caused the UNDER to flop on the Mike White passing yards line. Not even a 54.5-percent Completion Percentage could hold him back from hitting the OVER.
Dalton Schultz UNDER 51.5 Rec Yds
The return of Michael Gallup caused a massive dip in targets for Dalton Schultz. I’m interested to see if he returns to his former glory with the absence of Amari Cooper for the next 2 games.
