Underworld Rookie Mock Draft Recap #10

by Matt Dunleavy · Draft Strategy

The RotoUnderworld community will be partaking in a series of 12-team, five-round rookie mock drafts, running through the spring and summer. The mock drafters will be comprised of PlayerProfiler writers/analysts, our friends in the Patreon community, and our good friends over at The Breakout Finder. While these pieces will include quick-hitting notes from the drafters about why they made their selection, our writers will take turns recapping the festivities and adding their own unique perspectives.

Rookie Mock Draft Recap #10 – Single QB

The 10th edition of the fabled RotoUnderworld Rookie Mock Drafting Series Extravaganza is upon us.

Unlike the last couple of single QB mock drafts, this will be the first to happen completely post-NFL Draft. Our information has changed. At the top stand the same elite prospects as expected, but everyone’s own evaluation has shaken up the draft within the draft. There are more prospects to get familiar with now that NFL GM’s have unveiled their own rookie picks. Some of the players we loved are falling down the board after their names were omitted from the first two days. Let’s dive into how draft capital and landing spot has affected some of the RotoUnderworld writer’s favorite prospects.

fantasy-football-dynasty-league-rankings

1.01 – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Analyst: Garrison Mindrup (@GarrisonMindrup)
Rationale: This RB class is disgusting outside of Etienne and Harris and I’m not that high on either of them.

1.02 – Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Analyst: Joshua Benjamin (@joshbenjaminNFL)
Rationale: Harris won’t see a stacked box until Big Ben retires! Zero competition in the RB room. Wheels up.

1.03 – Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Analyst: Andrew Quinn (@AQuinnff)
Rationale: The Jags clearly don’t care about what James Robinson did last year, grabbing TLaw’s RB from Clemson. First round draft capital means he’ll eventually take over this backfield.

1.04 – Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons

Analyst: Akash Bhatia (@FantasyKash)
Rationale: The highest non-quarterback taken, Pitts, still just 20 years old, is in a great fit with the Falcons.

1.05 – Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos

Analyst: Jaylen Glenn (@JayyyG_FF)
Rationale: Bruising back with surprisingly good explosiveness and agility. Glad to pick up my RB1 at the 1.05.

1.06 – Rondale Moore, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Analyst: Will Barrett (@Will_Barrett1)
Rationale: It’s unfortunate that Bateman went to the Ravens, but it’s great that Moore went to the Cardinals. I love him in their spread offense, he’ll thrive there.

1.07 – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins

Analyst: Joshua Larky (@jlarkytweets)
Rationale: Got the draft capital, reunited with his college QB. Very good per game in 2020. Outplayed DeVonta Smith in 2018 when he was a rookie. Blazing speed. I’ve warmed up to the MIA landing spot, and Fuller is missing Week 1. Perfect way to start out hot and keep rolling.

1.08 – DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Analyst: Matt Dunleavy (@MrKong90)
Rationale: The Heisman winner is a slam dunk at the No. 8 pick after the Eagles traded up to get him at the 1.10. Even if size ends up being a concern, going as a top ten pick in the NFL draft extends his trade value.

1.09 – Trey Sermon, RB, San Francisco 49ers

Analyst: Casey Gruarin (@casey_g14)
Rationale: Bateman’s landing spot isn’t favorable and Marshall would have been the other choice. Sermon has some burst and agility for the Shanahan/Lance offense. If this were a real league, I would sell after his inevitable few big weeks, but he’s the best RB on the board here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mi3kZennnt0

1.10 – Terrace Marshall, WR, Carolina Panthers

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL)
Rationale: Paired up with his college offensive coordinator, Robby Anderson is a free agent in 2022 – expect Marshall to come in Day 1 and take advantage of an evolving offense… that is, if Sam Darnold is competent.

1.11 – Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Analyst: Ray Marzarella (@rayraymarz)
Rationale: Ironically, after taking Marshall in the previous single QB mock and letting Bateman fall to Rooster with the next pick, we’ve flip flopped our player choices, though Marshall still went first. I don’t mind the landing spot as much. Given the arrivals of Bateman and Sammy Watkins, it sounds like Baltimore is making a concerted effort to up their passing (editors note: famous last words?). In the end, it’s all about trusting the player over the current situation, as bleak as it may appear on paper in the short term. At least he finally broke 200-pounds.

1.12 – Elijah Moore, WR, New York Jets

Analyst: Michael Schmidt (@IknowGuacsExtra)
Rationale: You have to love Power 5 WRs that breakout early and also declare early. There are already whispers of the Jets moving on from Crowder. Wheels up!

Round 1 Takeaways

Last time the RotoUnderworld got together to mock draft rookies, it was without any pro logos slapped on these prospects. Now that we know where they all ended up, some new names have crept into the opening round. Here are my thoughts.

It is important to take the top running backs with the first couple of picks, especially if they’re first round picks in real life, because these players produce the most right away. Wide receivers might have longer careers but they tend to take time to develop at the next level. With all of that being said, I cannot fault Garrison or anyone else wanting to take Ja’Marr Chase at the top pick. He’s likely the best receiver prospect that we have seen since Amari Cooper. That’s very hard to pass up. In a real rookie draft however, I would consider trading back a couple spots to land another pick and get my guy at the same time.

Kyle Pitts jumped up from the 1.09 to the 1.04 after Atlanta egregiously draft him fourth overall. Pitts is a phenomenal prospect but based on the steep transition for the position, this is way too high to be drafting him. Granted this is where the ADP has Pitts but if he is really valued this high, do yourself a favor and trade back. This is outlier pricing for a tight end.

One last note, Trey Sermon sneaks into the first round after landing in San Francisco with day two draft capital. This speaks to the scarcity of the position and I am ok with taking the shot on him in the back half of the first round. Personally I think he is going to disappoint, but the potential is absolutely there.

2.01 – Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions

Analyst: Garrison Mindrup (@GarrisonMindrup)
Rationale: A smooth technician with not a lot of competition in front of him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcIRCdGg5rM

2.02 – Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets

Analyst: Joshua Benjamin (@joshbenjaminNFL)
Rationale: A 99th-percentile Agility Score at 200-plus pounds. Carter is primed for a two-to-three year usage window. I love buying Jets low this offseason at these close out values!

2.03 – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Analyst: Andrew Quinn (@AQuinnff)
Rationale: Best QB prospect in the class is all mine with the 2.03. Taking him here now that Carter, Sermon, and high-end WRs are off the board.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YU18C–V4qc

2.04 – Kadarius Toney, WR, New York Giants

Analyst: Akash Bhatia (@FantasyKash)
Rationale: Electric, Senior Breakout!

2.05 – Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears

Analyst: Jaylen Glenn (@JayyyG_FF)
Rationale: Fields has shown great arm talent, athleticism, intelligence, toughness and leadership throughout his entire career, so I’ll gladly take my QB1 at the 2.05 here.

2.06 – Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers

Analyst: Will Barrett (@Will_Barrett1)
Rationale: Lance to the 49ers is a great landing spot for him, he doesn’t have any pressure on him to succeed immediately with the great run game. He gives you that rushing upside with a rocket of an arm.

2.07 – Amari Rodgers, WR, Green Bay Packers

Analyst: Joshua Larky (@jlarkytweets)
Rationale: Didn’t like the prospect, but can’t ignore the wide open depth chart. Decent chance to finish top 3-5 in receptions in this class as a rookie A. Rodgers catching passes from A. Rodgers is fun too.

2.08 – Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans

Analyst: Matt Dunleavy (@MrKong90)
Rationale: One of the best size-speed prospects in the draft, gets day two draft capital on a team with shallow receiver depth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVDq8NbtM2w

2.09 – Kenny Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Analyst: Casey Gruarin (@casey_g14)
Rationale: Miles Sanders hasn’t been a picture of perfect health so far in his career, and no signs point towards the coaching staff letting him be a three-down workhorse. Gainwell can easily earn his way to a passing down role at minimum.

2.10 – Chuba Hubbard, WR, Carolina Panthers

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL)
Rationale: Christian McCaffrey had over 900 touches in his first three seasons in Carolina. Expect the Panthers to utilize Hubbard and keep CMC healthy long term. Hubbard is just 21.9 years old, and the Panthers do have an out in McCaffrey’s contract after 2022.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fwftqj_wQlU

2.11 – Anthony Schwartz, WR, Cleveland Browns

Analyst: Ray Marzarella (@rayraymarz)
Rationale: Lots of reasons to like Schwartz here. Among them: elite speed and dynamism, a top 10 Breakout Rating, Day 2 draft capital, and an underrated landing spot. He’s also the second-youngest skill position player in this draft class after Kyle Pitts.

2.12 – Dyami Brown, WR, Washington Football Team

Analyst: Michael Schmidt (@IknowGuacsExtra)
Rationale: Absurd 20.1 (94th-percentile) College YPR should pair well with Fitz and Washington’s short/intermediate pass catchers.

Round 2 Takeaways

I was surprised to see Michael Carter stay put at the 2.02 after landing in an ideal situation at the beginning of Day 3. This is probably where he should go. It’s intriguing, however, that the potential for him to take over the backfield combined with the shallow positional depth of this class didn’t boost him up at all.

Names that were left out this time around were Jermar Jefferson, Tylan Wallace, and Pat Freiermuth. Nothing surprising there.

Kenny Gainwell falls from the 1.10 to the 2.09 after falling to the fifth round behind Miles Sanders in Philadelphia. I agree with Casey’s assessment of the situation regarding Sanders’ health and situation. He was an absolute monster at Memphis, eclipsing 2,000 yards in 2019 with Antonio Gibson on the team. Now I am actually regretting not taking him the pick before.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0_6qhlLNfc

Amon-Ra St. Brown and Nico Collins jump up the board after landing in super shallow receiver rooms. St. Brown can seize a phenomenal opportunity to be the alpha in Detroit with his 86th-percentile Burst. Not to mention that he also checks the boxes for upper-percentile College Dominator Rating (62nd) and Breakout Age (91st).

3.01 – Elijah Mitchell, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Analyst: Garrison Mindrup (@GarrisonMindrup)
Rationale: A strong runner who can break tackles. Could excel in this offense.

3.02 – D’Wayne Eskridge, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Analyst: Joshua Benjamin (@joshbenjaminNFL)
Rationale: I wasn’t overly bullish on Eskridge pre NFL Draft. Now that he’s a prep cook in Russ’s kitchen, it’s time to cook!

3.03 – Tutu Atwell, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Analyst: Andrew Quinn (@AQuinnff)
Rationale: Can’t pass up Tutu in Round 3 after going to the Rams in the second round of the NFL draft. Size is the biggest concern (no pun intended), but his PlayerProfiler page is juicy – especially the Breakout Age and College Target Share parts.

3.04 – Zach Wilson, QB, New York Jets

Analyst: Akash Bhatia (@FantasyKash)
Rationale: Take the highly drafted quarterback who falls. Rinse – repeat.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxCQHyDFqpU

3.05 – Mac Jones, QB, New England Patriots

Analyst: Jaylen Glenn (@JayyyG_FF)

3.06 – Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots

Analyst: Will Barrett (@Will_Barrett1)
Rationale: Stevenson doesn’t boast anything special when it comes metrics besides his 93rd-percentile College YPC average and his fairly impressive 2020 season averaging 110 rushing yards and 35 receiving yards per game. Nonetheless, Stevenson has a good opportunity to overtake that New England backfield.

3.07 – Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

Analyst: Joshua Larky (@jlarkytweets)
Rationale: Likely TE1 candidate for multiple seasons three to years into his career. Not super exciting, but I’ll take what looks like a sure bet and a good value at this point in the draft.

3.08 – Gerrid Doaks, RB, Miami Dolphins

Analyst: Matt Dunleavy (@MrKong90)
Rationale: The RB class is ugly but I do like the landing spot for Doaks. He holds the highest recorded Athleticism Score among the rookies. He can overtake Malcolm Brown on the depth chart and share some of the load with the versatile Myles Gaskin.

3.09 – Ihmir Smith-Marsette, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Analyst: Casey Gruarin (@casey_g14)
Rationale: A combination of dynamism and little competition for the No. 3 receiver spot could pave the way for relevance as a rookie.

3.10 – Kylin Hill, RB, Green Bay Packers

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL)
Rationale: Hill fits into the Jamaal Williams role almost one for one, and the Packers have an out in Aaron Jones‘ contract after 2022.

3.11 – Tylan Wallace, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Analyst: Ray Marzarella (@rayraymarz)
Rationale: Wallace was among the biggest fallers in the post-NFL Draft Breakout Finder app update. This is a bet on the elite college production metrics overcoming the poor workout metrics, subpar landing spot, and generally unexciting Best Comparable Players. Though the Mario Manningham and Tyler Boyd comps should inspire hope for the future. Again, this is a talent over early career situation selection.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvM1kzxFa4M

3.12 – Hunter Long, TE, Miami Dolphins

Analyst: Michael Schmidt (@IknowGuacsExtra)
Rationale: Don’t love anyone at this spot so I’ll take a shot on a TE that was productive at BC and top 100 draft capital is no joke.

Round 3 Takeaways

A bit of consistency here in this round with some new names mixed in. I went ahead and took a  guy who was completely undrafted in the previous mock. Gerrid Doaks is intriguing to me. He holds the top Athleticism Score in this class and finds himself on a favorable roster for the position. I do not expect him to outright steal the job from Myles Gaskin, but he has a better chance than many rookie backs to work his way onto the field.

It was surprising to see Tutu Atwell stagnant  here. Second round draft capital and upper-percentile agility on the Rams offense wasn’t enough to overcome the size concerns. What is even more surprising is that the Rams drafted him over Terrace Marshall.

Both D’Wayne Eskridge and Rhamondre Stevenson moved up ten spots. I like the new value of Eskridge as the third receiver in Seattle. In a best ball format, he can be useful right away and is an injury away from immediate production for dynasty or redraft teams.

4.01 – Michael Strachan, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Analyst: Garrison Mindrup (@GarrisonMindrup)
Rationale: Massive height weight speed WR who could dominate if given the chance.

4.02 – Javian Hawkins, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Analyst: Joshua Benjamin (@joshbenjaminNFL)
Rationale: Hawkins has proved he can run the football, the only question is will he get a shot! I like the dart throw here!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6HzLGtUCig

4.03 – Chris Evans, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Analyst: Andrew Quinn (@AQuinnff)
Rationale: He’ll be behind Mixon in Cincy, but maybe he’ll work his way into the team’s plans in the future.

4.04 – Tamorrion Terry, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Analyst: Akash Bhatia (@FantasyKash)
Rationale: The draft capital (or lack thereof) is disappointing, but at this point in the draft I’ll take a chance on the big, fast, explosive receiver paired with Russell Wilson.

4.05 – Dez Fitzpatrick, WR, Tennessee Titans

Analyst: Jaylen Glenn (@JayyyG_FF)
Rationale: With fourth round draft capital, a 71st-percentile Breakout Age and minimal WR competition after AJB, I’ll take a shot on Fitzpatrick who was able to maintain a 20-percent weighted Dominator Rating all three years he played opposite Tutu Atwell.

4.06 – Brevin Jordan, TE, Houston Texans

Analyst: Will Barrett (@Will_Barrett1)
Rationale: Jordan is set to be the TE1 on the Texans, with little target competition. He has an 85th-percentile College Dominator Rating and a 99th-percentile Breakout Age. He wasn’t a massive producer in college, but the opportunity he will have in Houston is undeniable.

4.07 – Kene Nwangwu, RB, Minnesota Vikings

Analyst: Joshua Larky (@jlarkytweets)
Rationale: Athletic, possibly better than Mattison. At this point, a high upside handcuff will probably have some weeks, while the WRs available here probably won’t.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3JDKwPZJtU

4.08 – Jermar Jefferson, RB, Detroit Lions

Analyst: Matt Dunleavy (@MrKong90)
Rationale: Over 1,400 yards as a true freshman in the Pac 12. His pro day numbers and draft capital were disappointing, but I’ll take a shot in the fourth round.

4.09 – Simi Fehoko, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Analyst: Casey Gruarin (@casey_g14)
Rationale: Stands 6-4 and weighs 220-pounds with a 95th-percentile Speed Score along with upper-percentile Agility and Catch Radius marks. Michael Gallup is a free agent after this season as well. Great offense to be in.

4.10 – Tre McKitty, TE, Los Angeles Chargers

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL)
Rationale: The Starting TE in Los Angeles by Week 6? Shit… sign me up!

4.11 – Kellen Mond, QB, Minnesota Vikings

Analyst: Ray Marzarella (@rayraymarz)
Rationale: With all the chatter that Minnesota was eyeing up Justin Fields with their original first round selection, it makes sense to me to throw a dart at a player who may end up being the contingency plan at least by the 2023 season. Assuming he’d still have the services of one of more of Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, (maybe) Adam Thielen, and Irv Smith, I’ll throw that dart.

4.12 – Josh Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Analyst: Michael Schmidt (@IknowGuacsExtra)
Rationale: Surprised he got Day 2 draft capital, but love the landing spot tethered to Herby for the foreseeable future.

Round 4 Takeaways

This is the round where you need to be really sharp to sift out the gold pieces. Curious enough, the last three guys taken in this round were the only ones with day two NFL Draft capital in Tre McKitty, Kellen Mond, and Josh Palmer.

McKitty is a great value in the fourth round. A third round NFL pick in an ascending offense with Justin Herbert. Not to mention that he only needs to beat out a 34-year old Jared Cook on a one year deal for starter snaps in one tight end sets.

The other third round pick by the LA Chargers, Palmer could be another great value. Targets may be hard to come by early behind Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Cook, but things will open up in a desirable offense down the road.

Tammorrion Terry drops a round as expected after going undrafted. His prototypical alpha receiver size and 103.7 (80th-percentile) Speed Score was too much to let Akash pass him by regardless. It will be an upward battle for Terry’s pro career, but if there is an undrafted prospect who can do it, he’s the one.

5.01 – Davis Mills, QB, Houston Texans

Analyst: Garrison Mindrup (@GarrisonMindrup)
Rationale: Top HS Recruit who could see the field sooner rather than later.

5.02 – Khalil Herbert, RB, Chicago Bears

Analyst: Joshua Benjamin (@joshbenjaminNFL)
Rationale: Don’t love much about Herbert other than this landing spot. Paired with an RPO QB and a RB depth chart thinner than Tom Brady‘s frame!

5.03 – Stevie Scott, RB, New Orleans Saints

Analyst: Andrew Quinn (@AQuinnff)
Rationale: Has a shot to take over the change of pace role behind Kamara if/when Murray is gone.

5.04 – Tommy Tremble, TE, Carolina Panthers

Analyst: Akash Bhatia (@FantasyKash)
Rationale: Third round draft pick with athleticism. Sign me up in the third round of rookie drafts. Absolute steal in the fifth.

5.05 – Marquez Stevenson, WR, Buffalo Bills

Analyst: Jaylen Glenn (@JayyyG_FF)
Rationale: Dominant at Houston after suffering injuries his first two seasons, maybe he can carve out a role in a Josh Allen-led offense.

5.06 – Seth Williams, WR, Denver Broncos

Analyst: Will Barrett (@Will_Barrett1)
Rationale: He definitely has an alpha profile, it’s unfortunate he went in the sixth round to the Broncos and their crowded offense. Williams had an 88th-percentile College Target Share, with Anthony Schwartz as target conception. He also had a 98th-percentile Breakout Age. It will be interesting to see how he pans out in the Denver offense.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d86BH7j4GtY

5.07 – Demetric Felton, WR, Cleveland Browns

Analyst: Joshua Larky (@jlarkytweets)
Rationale: Versatile, should see some snaps at both RB/WR… hopefully he just tanked his pro day and isn’t actually that slow…?!

5.08 – Cornell Powell, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Analyst: Matt Dunleavy (@MrKong90)
Rationale: Upper-percentile burst on a Kansas City offense that needs a reliable second WR with vacant targets available from the departure of Watkins.

5.09 – Jaelon Darden, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Analyst: Casey Gruarin (@casey_g14)
Rationale: Not much upside here but there will be opportunities in the future for Darden to become a productive slot weapon. Kyle Trask learning behind Brady gives this pick some great potential.

5.10 – Kenny Yeboah, TE, New York Jets

Analyst: Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL)
Rationale: Kenny Yeboah received the most guaranteed money of all undrafted free agents. With just Chris Herndon (sad face) at tight end, there is room for Yeboah to take over.

5.11 – Kylen Granson, TE, Indianpolis Colts

Analyst: Ray Marzarella (@rayraymarz)
Rationale: Tough to see where he fits into the Colts offense early on in his career given the crowded room, but getting some serious Trey Burton vibes surrounding a player who has the kind of athletic profile I’m drawn to at the TE position. He broke out at two different schools and has a 97th-percentile Breakout Age. I like him in the fifth of any format.

5.12 – Shi Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers

Analyst: Michael Schmidt (@IknowGuacsExtra)
Rationale: Appropriate to end the year of the slot receiver with one. Smith joins a crowded WR room but an offense that should improve. If only they took Fields…

Round 5 Takeaways

This is, of course, the round where the most new names pop up. Everyone is taking one last swing for their guys. Kylen Granson, Cornell Powell, Davis Mills, and Marquez Stevenson all hear their names called out by the Underworld for the first time in this format. Depending on what happens with Deshaun Watson, Mills could be a great pick by Garrison in the final round.

Seth Williams is the biggest faller in this round after going at the 3.07 in the previous mock. Sixth round draft capital to a team with a crowded wide receiver depth chart sunk the value of what was once a coveted prospect in this circle. Will Barrett was right to take a shot on him in the final round. His upper-percentile College Dominator Rating, Breakout Age, and Speed Score give him the potential to break out regardless of his situation.

Conclusion

That wraps up the 10th edition of the RotoUnderworld Rookie Mock Drafting Extravaganza. Take note of the new names and the ADP movements into your rookie drafts and have a leg up on your competition. I hope you have enjoyed reading along, we appreciate your time.