Advanced stats and analytics will be utilized to identify favorable matchups and players to avoid. The purpose of this article is to paint a picture of how the teams play and matchup with one another in less than 1,000 words.
As the season continues, less emphasis will be put on last season and early season’s stats. Vegas trends will also be implemented to help predict the game flow. I’ll conclude the article with a Cliff Notes section and give the readers my prediction for the game.
Welcome to the newest edition of Thursday Night Showdown. I’ll be guiding you through the important aspects to watch in each Thursday night matchup.
Without further ado, let’s see what the New York Jets and the Indianapolis Colts have in store for us.
Vegas Trends
- Baltimore are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore’s last 6 games on the road.
- Baltimore are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games against Miami.
- Miami are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami’s 9 games this season.
- Miami are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games at home.
Baltimore Ravens
Running Like It’s 2019
Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens have been up and down this season, but the ups result in Jackson lighting the field on fire. He’s putting up 25.4 (No. 2 among qualified quarterbacks) Fantasy Points per Game, and boasting 75 (No. 1) rush yards per game. He draws a favorable matchup against the Dolphins, who give up 296.67 pass yards and 19.9 Fantasy Points to quarterbacks per game. Jackson is in line to have a memorable night through the ground and the air.
Devonta Freeman 2021 Weekly Total Touches, Opportunity Share, & Fantasy Points from Weeks 4-9
Devonta Freeman is an NFL team’s lead back. No, it’s not 2019. He was picked up off of the street and ran up a 5.4 (No. 2) True Yards per Carry. His Snap Share and touch counts have slowly increased as he’s been brought along. He’s begun to look like a viable fantasy option as of late. Also, he’s scored in each of the last three games and finished as the RB10 in Week 9. He draws a matchup against a middle-of-the-road Dolphins rush defense in a game where he figures to see plenty of touches. Freeman is a flex play tonight, but remember to play him in your RB slot in case of a late-week injury.
Le’Veon Bell managed to score a touchdown last week and finished with 10.8 (No. 27) Fantasy Points. He was ineffective with his 11 carries, which isn’t out of the ordinary. Bell’s ceiling is too low to start this week.
A Flock of Pass Catchers
Marquise Brown has earned back the “Hollywood” nickname. He comes into the week with 18.8 (No. 6) Fantasy Points per Game. He’s seemingly taken the next step as a deep threat, compiling 442 (No. 9) Completed Air Yards, 19 (No. 1) Deep Targets, and 6 (No. 7) total touchdowns. Brown hasn’t been hurt by Rashod Bateman‘s return. As a result, he’s earned 31 targets in the last three games. The issue is his matchup against PlayerProfiler’s No. 25-ranked CB Xavien Howard and Miami’s spry secondary. Above all, playing him is well worth the risk.
Rashod Bateman has come out swinging in his rookie season. He’s earned 6 targets in all three games and has totaled at least 10 Fantasy Points in the last two games. He’s quickly becoming a favorite of Lamar Jackson, drawing a 27.4-percent (No. 20) Target Rate. On the other hand, he draws a tough matchup against No. 29-ranked CB Byron Jones. The breakout game is coming, but it isn’t this week. Bateman is a WR3 with WR2 upside.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwqjzsYqMHM
Sammy Watkins is expected to return tonight after missing nearly four games due to a quad injury. His first four games led to nothing impressive, besides a 16.2 (No. 9) Yards per Reception. Finally, Mark Andrews comes into the game with 15.0 (No. 2) Fantasy Points per Game. He’s dominating Baltimore’s opportunity and production. Through eight games, he’s racked up a 23.6-percent (No. 3) Target Share, 23.1-percent (No. 5) Air Yards, and 25.3-percent (No. 3) Dominator Rating. He’s one of the few tight ends that matter, and a player that you’re starting every week.
Miami Dolphins
Jacoby Brissett and Myles Gaskin
Jacoby Brissett is an average game manager, and a below average fantasy scorer. In relief for Tua Tagovailoa, he’s totaled 1127 (No. 32) passing yards, 17 (No. 9) Interceptable Passes, and 4.8 (No. 32) Adjusted Yards per Attempt. Nothing about his season has been impressive. Already on a short week, Brissett’s outlook is grim.
Don’t look now, but Myles Gaskin is on a hot stretch. He’s averaging 6 targets, 60.4 total yards, and 15.4 Fantasy Points over the last five games. That level of production would make him the RB16. Secondly, he’s earned 123.8 (No. 9) Weighted Opportunities. He has been hyper-active in the passing game and has shown efficiency as a runner in spots. Baltimore’s rush defense is average, but Gaskin is scoring a majority of his points through the air. He’s an RB2 this week in a game where he should see plenty of check-down targets.
Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki
Miami is without Will Fuller and DeVante Parker. As a result, Jaylen Waddle continues to see a high volume of targets. Waddle, with 5.6 (No. 101) Average Target Distance and 218 (No. 11) Yards After Catch, has been used as a gadget. However, with a depleted receiving core he’s had opportunity pile up. Averaging 16.9 Fantasy Points per Game over the last four, he’s becoming a serious fantasy asset. To sum, start Waddle against a beatable Ravens secondary.
Jaylen Waddle Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Mike Gesicki is the real deal. Capitalizing on his teammates injuries, he currently has a 20.5-percent (No. 12) Dominator Rating and a 26.0-percent (No. 2) Air Yards Share. Gesicki has posted at least 15 Fantasy Points in four of the last seven games, and is showing the world what he can do with a meaningful Target Share. With a depleted receiving core, Gesicki is a de facto start.
Cliff Notes
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Start Devonta Freeman.
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Start Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews.
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Sit Rashod Bateman.
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Ride the Myles Gaskin hot streak.
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Start Jaylen Waddle.
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Mike Gesicki finishes the week as a Top-12 TE.
Conclusion
In short, the Dolphins are a mess. It doesn’t matter who is playing quarterback. The Ravens will dominate this game from start to finish. Tonight’s spread is set at 7.5 points in favor of the Ravens. Normally, most lines over a touchdown are tough to call. This game does not follow that trend. I’ll take the Ravens to cover easily.
The point total is set at 46.5 points. Both of these team’s have been hitting the under lately, and I like them to keep that streak going. Baltimore plays at a slow pace, and Miami has a hard enough time playing offense to establish a pace. I expect Baltimore to control the game early, but for both defenses to hold their ground. As a result, I’m taking the under tonight.
Prediction: Ravens 27-17
