Week 11 TNF Showdown: Titans at Packers

by Matt Babich · Betting & Props

The Week 11 TNF Showdown features the Titans at the Packers. I’ll be guiding you through the important aspects to watch in each Thursday night matchup. Without further ado, let’s see what these two teams have in store for what may be a sluggish start to this week’s fantasy slate.

Advanced stats and analytics will be utilized to identify favorable matchups and players to avoid. The purpose of this article is to paint a picture of how the teams play and match up with one another in less than 1,500 words.

As the season continues, less emphasis will be put on last season and early season’s stats. Vegas trends will also be implemented to help predict the game flow. I’ll conclude the article with a Cliff Notes section and give the readers my prediction for the game.

Vegas Trends

  • Tennessee is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee’s last 6 games.
  • Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
  • Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay’s last 11 games as a home favorite.
  • Green Bay is 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite.

Notable Injuries

Tennessee

  • No listed injuries

Green Bay

  • No listed injuries

The Tennessee Titans

The Titans’ coaching staff are experts in ruining a party. They killed Tennessee’s Tanne-thrill ride when they thought A.J. Brown could be replaced by Treylon Burks. Tannehill’s 13 (No. 25) fantasy points per game are the lowest mark he’s seen since his 2012 rookie season. The arm talent is still there. He’s delivering a 7.8 (No. 13) Accuracy Rating and a 79.7-percent (No. 11) Catchable Pass Rate. Running under 24 pass plays per game, the veteran has only eclipsed 200 yards in three of his seven games this season. In those each of those games, he’s produced at least 19 fantasy points. Green Bay has kept anemic passing offenses at bay and can’t stop the run. This is the perfect formula for a disappointing low-end QB2 performance from Tannehill. Tannehill has big game upside, and he’s a boom-or-bust start in deeper 2QB/Superflex leagues.

Sunday’s matchup against Denver broke a six-game streak of Derrick Henry recording at least 100 total yards. It’s hard to blame anyone expecting a decline. Henry is simply breaking the model and is the exception to the rule. He’s been able to handle 22.4 carries and produce 102.6 rushing yards per game while facing at least eight men in the box on over 33-percent of his carries. His per-touch efficiencies aren’t what they used to be, but with Henry that means nothing. Eventually, he will break off the big run, and he’ll do that multiple times a game. Henry is facing the No. 3-worst rush defense in DVOA, so there’s no need to overthink this.

TNF Prop No. 1: Ryan Tannehill OVER 186.5 Passing Yards

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine earned the honor of being the first Titans’ first receiver to break the 100-yard mark this season. There are many similarities between Westbrook-Ikhine’s usage now and Gabe Davis’s usage in his rookie season. Both were deep threats who are hyper-efficient the few times they were targeted and were mainly irrelevant in fantasy. Despite producing a 21.4 (No. 2) Average Depth of Target, Tennessee’s number one receiver draws a mere 2.6 targets per game. Westbrook-Ikhine made a case for that to change, turning his eight targets into five receptions, 119 yards, and two touchdowns (all career highs). Don’t expect a repeat, but the number one passing option on any team should at least be rostered. Against a respectable secondary, I’d only roll out Westbrook-Ikhine as an emergency flex in deep leagues.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

The Treylon Burks experiment may already be ending before our eyes. The first-round pick has looked extremely disappointing when healthy. He’s failed to command a significant share of the passing game, with a 16.2-percent (No. 55) Target Share and 1.09 (No. 66) Yards per Team Pass Attempt. He’s also hardly on the field as he’s breaking a 60-percent Snap Share once this season. Perhaps part of the problem is his gimmicky usage. He draws 39.8 Air Yards per game and has been targeted deep downfield twice all season. With little sign of life, it’s best to wait and see how he performs this week before starting Burks.

Austin Hooper posted a season high 9.1 fantasy points on Sunday. This stems from a season high seven targets. On the season, he has not received enough opportunity to make an impact in fantasy. Hooper is seeing 2.7 targets and 24.6 air yards per game. He doesn’t see red zone targets, and he doesn’t make plays after the catch. Because of this, Hooper will continue to be irrelevant in fantasy.

The Green Bay Packers

Has the monster come alive again? For a moment, it appeared as though the switch to Jordan Love was going to be made. After that moment, things started clicking. Rodgers broke the 70-percent completion percentage mark for the first time since Week 3, delivered three beautiful touchdowns to Christian Watson, and recorded a season high 19 fantasy points against an elite pass defense. As fun as watching the downfall of Rodgers has been, there are a lot of bright spots in his advanced metrics. He’s no different than the baaaaad man that he’s been known as, but he has a bad offensive line and no receiving talent. The Packers will have to throw the ball to beat Tennessee and their stout rush defense. I expect Rodgers to be a low end QB1 in a massive momentum game at home.

The even split between Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon is dying fast and rightfully so. It seems the coaching staff finally realized that there’s nothing Dillon can do better than Jones. This has delivered Jones a 65-percent Opportunity Share since Week 7. He’s also proving to be one of the team’s most reliable pass catchers. Jones is drawing a 12.8-percent (No. 10) Target Share. His per touch efficiencies are phenomenal, as always, chalking up 5.4 (No. 5) True Yards per Carry and 3.62 (No. 12) Yards Created per Touch. He’s the most valuable non-QB on the offense and needs to get consistent touches for this offense to blossom. Jones’s rushing upside is limited against Tennessee, but the ferocious pass rush should earn him a healthy amount of targets. You’re rolling out Jones as an RB1.

TNF Prop No. 2: Aaron Jones OVER 24.5 Receiving Yards

Speaking of Dillon, the dream of him being a fantasy relevant asset is dead as long as Jones is healthy. Dillon’s posted 4.0 (No. 40) True Yards per Carry and 2.31 (No. 40) Yards Created per Touch on 12.7 touches per game. He broke 10 (and subsequently 20) fantasy points in Week 1 and hasn’t reached that mark since. His 14 red zone touches and four goal line touches are not very conducive to scoring. He’s not earning more opportunities any time soon, barring injury. While he’s still rosterable as a handcuff in leagues, you’re keeping him on your bench for the foreseeable future.

After weeks of disappointment, Christian Watson finally came through. His super-athlete profile makes his 107 yard and three score performance unsurprising. It was only a matter of time before Rodgers figured out how to get the ball to the guy who’s really big and really fast. The seasonal 10.1-percent (No. 92) Target Share is scary, but the usage is likely to rapidly change going forward. Rodgers needs a guy he can rely on, and no one else has stepped up. He’ll get a respectable target share going forward and can improve on his now efficient rookie campaign. He’s notched a red zone target in four of his seven games and generates 4.6 Yards After Catch per Target. The talent is there, and it should shine through again against an average Titans secondary.

Christian Watson Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

TNF Prop No. 3: Mason Crosby OVER 1.5 FG Made

Don’t let the rise of Watson make you forget about Allen Lazard. Lazard was shut down by Trevon Diggs on Sunday. He broke a six-game streak of 10+ fantasy points, but prior he had been the go-to receiver. His production was solely touchdown driven as he’s broken 100 receiving yards only once and scoring a touchdown in five of his first seven games. This efficient production, however, needs to continue for Lazard to be playable. The amount of deep targets Lazard sees will go down with Watson more involved, as will his share of air yards. This week, as I’ve stated, the Packers will need to move the ball through the air. I expect Lazard to finish as a top-24 receiver this week.

It appeared for a moment that Robert Tonyan may be fantasy relevant, but his disparaging usage has left him irrelevant for fantasy purposes. There are multiple better streaming options at the position this week.

Cliff Notes

  • Ryan Tannethrill is a boom-bust QB2.
  • Keep waiting on Treylon Burks.
  • Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is a deep flex play.
  • Aaron Rodgers is still that guy and is a QB1 this week.
  • Aaron Jones is a weekly RB1 prospect with his added opportunities.
  • Christian Watson and Allen Lazard are both top-24 options.

Conclusion

Vegas has turned the tide on the Packers, making them 3.5 point favorites at home. Expectedly, the public currently loves the Titans to cover this spread. They wield an elite defense, can run the ball down anyone’s throat, and now have signs of life in the passing game. They play a safe brand of football that extends drives and keeps their defense fresh. Despite all of that, I’m riding with the Packers. Because of this, I am rolling with the Titans to cover. They’ve covered this number in eight of their nine games and should be able to control the tempo enough to take this game to the wire.

The point total is set at 41 points. The Titans hit the over on this mark in each of their first four games, but have failed to do so since then. The Packers have surpassed this total in five of their last seven games. The Titans will control the temp of the game, but the Packers improving offense will force Tennessee to be a bit more aggressive. Compounding on the fact that Green Bay’s rush defense can’t stop anyone, I expect points to be scored in this game. I am going back to my roots and taking the over tonight.

2022 record:

  • Spread: 5-5
  • Total: 6-4
  • Props: 9-8

Prediction: Packers 23-21