Week 13 MNF Showdown: Saints vs Buccaneers

by Dookie Hogue · Betting & Props

Welcome to the Week 13 MNF Showdown! The Saints (4-8) are heading to Tampa Bay to take on The Buccaneers (5-6) in a must-win NFC South clash. Both clubs are coming off upsetting Week 12 losses ahead of Monday Night’s big game. The division is still up for grabs, so both teams will look to right the ship with a notch in the win column. Without further ado, let’s dig in for Week 13’s Monday Night Showdown!

Saints vs Buccaneers Odds:
Buccaneers -3.5 (-110) |
Over/Under 40.5 (-105/115) |
Moneyline Buccaneers -196/Saints +164 |

The Saints

Outside of two QB1 finishes, Andy Dalton has finished QB17 or worse since taking over as the Saints’ signal-caller. After logging eight straight games with a passing touchdown, Dalton and the Saints were skunked in last week’s shutout loss. I’d keep expectations tempered for Dalton again this week while facing an equally strong Bucs defense. The Bucs’ defense has stifled the opposition in both Passing Yards allowed (No. 4) and Passing Success Rate (No. 7). Dalton is a middling QB2 in this difficult spot.

Rushing and Receiving

Alvin Kamara is RB13 and ranks No. 3 in Targets (48) and No. 1 in Receiving Yards (312) at his position. Kamara’s passing game usage has helped solidify a floor as he has struggled to score touchdowns. Kamara’s three rushing touchdowns this season all came courtesy of a one-game hat-trick dismantling of the Raiders. Kamara remains a weekly mainstay by his usage alone, but I’m bearish on a big game out of him. The Bucs have limited opposing running backs to a paltry 14.8 Fantasy Points (per game average/No. 4 best).

Chris Olave Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Chris Olave is the clear alpha wideout for the Saints. The rookie has stepped up big for the team leading them in both Targets (50) and Receiving Yards (433). I like Olave’s ceiling on any given week as he’s cleared the 100-yard receiving mark three times already this season. Though he was only able to muster five receptions for 62 yards in last week’s shutout loss, he did see a team-high 30-percent Target Share. Because of their strong red-zone rush defense, the Bucs are allowing a league-high Passing Percentage (68-percent) inside the 10-yard line.

The Saints’ ancillary receiving options are Jarvis Landry and Juwan Johnson. Landry is second among the wide receiver group in Target Share (16-percent) but hasn’t topped 40 yards since Week 1. Johnson leads the team with five Receiving Touchdowns but will miss the contest with an ankle injury. Taysom Hill has been a more bust-than-boom option but will likely see a usage bump with Johnson ruled out.

The Buccaneers

The low Vegas total in this game may be in part due to the fact that the Saints have historically held Tom Brady in check. Since joining the Bucs, Brady has a passer rating of just 72.8 with seven touchdowns and eight interceptions when facing the Saints. In the team’s first meeting in Week 2, Brady posted a season-low 10.4 fantasy points. The Saints’ defense has held opponents’ quarterbacks under their passing yardage prop in six straight games. Brady’s outlook is teetering out of QB1 range in this daunting matchup.

Rushing and Receiving

Leonard Fournette was a full participant in practice all week but is still listed as questionable (hip). His return is to the detriment of backfield mate Rachaad White who looked spry in relief. With Fournette sidelined, White parlayed a career-high 90-percent Snap Share into 109 scrimmage yards. If Fournette does in fact return though, I like him as an RB2 as he should slide back into a prominent role despite White’s recent success.

The target distribution in Tampa Bay is no mystery. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans have 2022 Target Shares of 22.9-percent and 20.3-percent. Godwin is the preferred option in this week’s matchup after shredding the Browns for 12/110/1. Godwin has been reliable, having seen double-digit Targets in five of his last six contests. The matchup for Evans could be difficult. The face-off between Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore has been chippy in the past. In part due to Lattimore’s shadow coverage, Evans hasn’t cracked 80 Receiving Yards against the Saints since 2018.

Score Prediction: Bucs 21 Saints 10