This is Week 13 NFL Best Bets! Here, the PlayerProfiler staff provides their best picks to take on BetOpenly—a spot where you can maximize value by avoiding the juice Vegas wants you to pay. The staff took a Thanksgiving break last week, but In Week 11 our picks went for a solid 3-1 record. This week, we are back again with three best bets from Ahaan S. Rungta and Trevor Tipton with odds that you can only get at BetOpenly.
As a reminder, BetOpenly has launched peer-to-peer player props. Additionally, you now can get better odds by 10 to 20 points than a traditional sports book which charges 10-percent on average. When you see a player prop for -110 at another book, you will generally see that prop at BetOpenly for +108 to +100. That is massive savings and a value you cannot get anywhere else.
If you would like an introduction to using BetOpenly and want to know why it is more profitable than using a traditional sportsbook, check out our opening article of the season.
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On BetOpenly, you have the option to take or create your own bets on game lines (such as outright wins or spreads) but also to combine player props through the Instant DFS/Props menu. In today’s article, we have a few picks from each category. It is important to tail these picks with discipline. Stick to your normal wagers, don’t chase wins or losses, and play your peers instead of the juice-hungry sportsbooks.
Ahaan’s Week 13 Pick
New Orleans Saints +4.5 vs. Detroit Lions (+100)
The Lions are coming off an embarrassing upset loss on Thanksgiving Day and thus have the rest advantage. The Saints have injury designations on their top three wide receivers (Michael Thomas is out, and Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are questionable), and three defensive starters didn’t practice on Wednesday (Cameron Jordan, Pete Werner, and Marcus Maye). It makes sense that they are receiving over 80-percent of the public action in Week 13. However, we will pivot and take the sharp side instead as all this information is already priced into the market.
The Saints defense is the primary reason they are able to compete in ballgames. Despite not applying pressure to the quarterback all season long, their pass defense still ranks No. 11 in dropback EPA per play allowed. Additionally, their run defense ranks No. 6 in rush EPA per play allowed. Their secondary ranks No. 7 in PFF coverage grade as well. That’s bad news for the regressing quarterback Jared Goff who only ranks middle-of-the-pack in adjusted EPA per play and completion percentage over expectation since coming off his Week 9 Bye. Goff has only faced one defense ranked in the top-9 in the PFF coverage grade this season (the Ravens), and in that game, Detroit did not score a touchdown until garbage time and lost 38-6.
Derek Carr
On the other hand, Derek Carr has struggled this season, but Detroit’s defense is far from the elite unit they made us believe they were early in the season. The Lions rank No. 28 in pass rush win rate, No. 30 in run stop win rate, No. 26 in PFF coverage grade, No. 27 in dropback EPA per play allowed, and No. 17 in rush EPA per play allowed. Carr does rank No. 9 in adjusted EPA per play since Week 8, so there are signs of encouragement that he can produce even with a depleted pass-catching room in Week 13. The Lions rank No. 12 in the NFL in man coverage rate but No. 21 in zone coverage rate. That’s good news for Carr who has been significantly better against man coverage this season (No. 7 in passer rating).
To cap it all off, this game stands out with a staggering historical trend. Since 1989, in regular season games past Week 4, home underdogs who are 20%-or-worse against the spread are 72-27-1 against the spread when facing a team with a winning record. Bite the bullet with the battered Saints. This is too many points. On sportsbooks, you have to pay 10 cents of juice to snag some key numbers. On BetOpenly, you can take it at even-money.
Trevor’s Week 13 Picks
Rachaad White (TB) Over 62.5 rushing yards (+100)
Running back Rachaad White has one of the best fantasy and sports betting matchups of the week as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers get ready to meet the Carolina Panthers in Week 13. White has a lot riding on him. Mayfield and the Buccaneers face the No. 4 ranked pass defense in the NFL. We will examine the elements that back up this forecast such as White’s recent play, the Buccaneers’ offensive scheme, and the Panthers’ defensive weaknesses.
Rachaad White has been steadily improving throughout this season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. His ability to run with power, agility, and vision has caught the attention of both fans and analysts. In the last few weeks, White has displayed a remarkable ability to break tackles, leading to significant yardage gains after contact. He currently has 369 yards after contact this season. While Mayfield leads the league in checkdowns and White has been a force on the ground, this week Tampa will have to run the ball to have any success against Carolina. The Buccaneers have shown a willingness to use White in both pass catching and rushing roles. This week he will be heavily leaned on in the running game.
More on Rachaad White
White’s statistics for the 2023 season reflect a notable increase in his rushing capabilities. He has accumulated 559 yards over 156 attempts, averaging 3.6 yards per carry, with a total of four touchdowns. Particularly noteworthy is his performance last week against the Colts. In Week 12, he ran 15 times for exactly 100 yards including a career-long 38-yard run. This performance indicates his growing confidence and effectiveness in the running game.
The Carolina Panthers’ defense has shown weaknesses against the run. They rank No. 24 in the NFL against the run. The Panthers are surrendering an average of 124.9 yards per game. This vulnerability could provide White with opportunities to exploit gaps and make significant gains on the ground. This betting line is currently +100 at BetOpenly while it is up to -115 at most traditional sportsbooks. This value is too much to pass up in this Week 13 matchup.
Drake London (ATL) Over 3.5 receptions (-117)
In spite of the fact London has been handcuffed with the worst head coach in the NFL and horrendous quarterback play, the star wide receiver continues to produce for the Falcons. Throughout the 2023 season, London has been a reliable target for the Falcons, securing 45 receptions over 10 games, averaging 4.5 receptions per game. His consistent performance, especially in terms of receptions, sets a solid baseline expectation for his upcoming game even against the stout secondary of the Jets. As the Atlanta Falcons prepare to take on the New York Jets this week, all eyes are on their talented rookie wide receiver, Drake London. The young star from USC has been making waves in the NFL with his impressive performances in spite of his team’s limitations.
The expected game script could also favor Drake London‘s chances of exceeding 3.5 receptions. If the Falcons are playing from behind or in a competitive game, they will likely rely on their passing attack because that is the most Arthur Smith thing to do. They will try to move the chains and keep pace with the Jets even with both team’s ugly quarterback play.
London has hit this line in five out of the last six games, while having 29.3-percent of the teams air yards and 24.3-percent of the team’s targets. London has also been a nightmare to defend against Cover 4 coverage which the Jets run at the No. 2 highest rate in the NFL. This line is currently -135 at most sportsbooks, and we expect this to close at 4.5 this week, so make sure you take advantage early of betting lines and better odds at BetOpenly.
