Welcome back to our expert article series, where the PlayerProfiler staff provide their best bets to take on BetOpenly — a spot where you can maximize value by avoiding the juice Vegas wants you to pay. The staff took a Thanksgiving break two weeks ago, but in Week 13, our picks went 1-2. This week, we are back again with four Week 14 bets from Ahaan S. Rungta and Trevor Tipton, and odds that you can only get at BetOpenly.
As a reminder, BetOpenly has launched peer-to-peer player props. You now can also get better odds by 10 to 20 points than on traditional sportsbooks, which also charge on average 10-percent. When you see a player prop for -110 at another book, you will generally see that prop at BetOpenly for +108 to +100. That is massive savings and value you cannot get anywhere else.
If you would like an introduction to using BetOpenly and want to know why it is more profitable than using a traditional sportsbook, check out our opening article of the season.
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On BetOpenly, you have the option to take or create your own bets on game lines (such as outright wins or spreads), but also to combine player props through the Instant DFS/Props menu. In today’s article, we have a few picks from each category; tail with discipline. Stick to your normal wagers, don’t chase wins or losses, and play your peers instead of the juice-hungry sportsbooks.
Ahaan’s Week 14 Picks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Spread +1.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons (+100)
The Buccaneers and Falcons previously met in Week 7 during Desmond Ridder‘s first stint of the season as the Falcons starting quarterback. That game was a turnover-fest that induced a high amount of variance, and despite Ridder and Baker Mayfield combining for 525 passing yards, the Falcons won by a measly 16-13 score. We will fade the noise from that matchup and back the team better equipped to win in Week 14.
Part of Tampa Bay’s struggles recently have been related to injuries on the defensive side of the ball. They give up big plays and have not rushed the quarterback as effectively as in recent seasons. However, much of that will be less relevant against Ridder, who is simply not qualified to be a starter in the NFL. Among all qualified quarterbacks, he ranks No. 28 in True Passer Rating, No. 25 in Clean Pocket Completion Percentage, and No. 24 in Deep Ball Accuracy Rating. Unforced errors are on the table for the sophomore under center.
Bucs Offense
On the other side of the ball, Mayfield is about to face a Falcons defense that is banged up themselves after some recent dominance. Several starters are listed as questionable and the fact that they rank No. 30 in Pass Rush Win Rate could come back to bite them.
Baker Mayfield understood the assignment https://t.co/Ai9PODnmb3
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 4, 2023
Mayfield’s Accuracy Rating improves from 5.1 under pressure to 6.6 when in a clean pocket and his adjusted EPA/play since coming off a bye in Week 6 ranks No. 14 among all quarterbacks. Tampa Bay has the much more trustworthy offense in this one. While the Falcons are coming off two straight wins since their bye, both came against struggling offenses in the Saints and Jets. They should get humbled in this divisional matchup as Tampa Bay looks for vengeance to stay in this division race.
Although you have to pay 10 to 15 cents of juice to get the 1.5 points of spread insurance on sportsbooks, you can get it at a coin-flip price on BetOpenly.
Seattle Seahawks Spread +11 vs. San Francisco 49ers (+100)
Once again, we are attacking a divisional rematch in an active playoff battle. The 49ers look like the best team in football at the moment. In these teams’ previous meeting in Week 12, the Niners laid down a road beating on the Seahawks in a 31-13 victory where Seattle looked outmatched and mentally checked out.
The line is officially an overreaction to that previous head-to-head battle. Not only was Geno Smith playing through injuries; so was wide receiver DK Metcalf. Consequently, Metcalf had his first career rough game against cornerback Charvarius Ward. San Francisco’s one weakness is their secondary. They’ve given up huge plays all season long to both outside and slot wide receivers. Smith looked healthier last week against the Cowboys and now Seattle has the rest advantage since their Week 13 game was on a Thursday. On the season, Seattle’s quarterback ranks No. 5 in Deep Ball Accuracy Rating, No. 17 in Catchable Pass Rate under pressure, and No. 4 in Passer Rating against man coverage. The 49ers have been playing an increasing amount of man recently.
Seahawks Defense
On the other side of the ball, it is a daunting task to ask the 49ers offense to completely lay a dud, but most of Seattle’s elite defensive weapons are healthy. As a unit, Seattle ranks No. 2 in Zone Coverage Rate, No. 13 in Pass Rush Win Rate, and No. 10 in Run Stop Win Rate. Purdy’s passer rating has taken a hit when facing zone coverage this season and when facing pressure. It is highly telling that San Francisco has scored at least 27 points in each of their four games since their bye, but their Vegas team total is set to only 29.5.
The 49ers posted their biggest statement win of the season in Week 12 when they took down the nearly-undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. Although it may be scary to pick this as the letdown spot for the Super Bowl favorites, this is the perfect time to sell high and snag several key numbers with this 11-point spread, which you can buy at a coin-flip price on BetOpenly.
Trevor’s Week 14 Picks
Saquon Barkley (NYG) OVER 15.5 rushing attempts (-113)
As the New York Giants prepare to face off against the Green Bay Packers, all eyes are on running back Saquon Barkley. Green Bay has been one of the worst defenses versus the run in the NFL. The Giants still have Tommy Devito at quarterback, and with the Packers secondary being their strength, we expect to see a heavy dose of Saquon in this matchup.
Barkley’s role in the Giants’ game plan cannot be overstated. Not only is he the primary rusher, but his ability to perform in high-pressure situations makes him the go-to player for critical downs. Quite frankly, he is the Giants’ only real offensive weapon. In a game that has New York as only +5.5 underdogs, the Giants are likely to rely on Barkley’s proven ability to maintain possession and control the pace.
Green Bay currently has allowed every main RB they have faced to reach the over on rushing attempts this season except Week 1 vs. Chicago and Austin Ekeler in Week 11. They have allowed 295 rushing attempts this season, making them the fifth-worst in the NFL. The Packers are a bottom-10 run defense in every major category including Yards Per Carry, Total Yards, Yards After Contact and basically every other rushing metric. Brian Daboll and the Giants will unleash Saquon in this matchup to exploit the Green Bay run defense which is No. 23 in Run DVOA.
Volume for Saquon
In the last few weeks, the Giants have used Barkley more out of the backfield due to matchups against Dallas, Washington and New England. This will allow us to exploit this line versus one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Brian Daboll has shown he is willing to use Saquon 20-plus times a game, even against tough run defenses like the Bills and New York Jets. Only three other running backs in the NFL have a higher rushing attempt rate than Saquon’s 63.7-percent this season.
We will not have many chances to bet on Saquon versus one the worst run defenses in the NFL at only 15.5 rushing attempts. This line is currently -130 at most books and you can grab right now at BetOpenly for -113. Saquon is playing for a big contract and I expect him to take the rock as many times as they will give it to him this week in a matchup where the Giants try to play spoiler to the Packers.
Garrett Wilson (NYJ) OVER 4.5 receptions (+104)
There will be very few chances in the next five to ten years that we get to bet on a Garret Wilson reception prop at 4.5. As the New York Jets prepare to face off against the Houston Texans this week, all eyes are on Garrett Wilson with Zach Wilson returning to quarterback. Known for his dynamic play and impressive catches, Wilson is a pivotal figure in the Jets’ offense. This is Christmas comes early to all sports bettors. This is a pivotal matchup for the Houston Texans and their playoff hopes. We expect CJ Stroud and company to force the pace of play, even against the Jets tough secondary. Wilson will see plenty of opportunities as the Jets will most likely be playing from a negative Game Script.
Wilson, has already made his mark in the NFL with exceptional receiving skills. Averaging 5.58 receptions per game, Wilson has consistently demonstrated his reliability as a target for Zach Wilson. Garrett has hit this target eight times this season with Zach as his quarterback. Wilson might be the best wide receiver in the NFL this season if we take into account quarterback play. He currently has a 11.4 ADOT and 1316 Air Yards which is seventh-best in the NFL. He also currently averages 27.8-percent of the Jets targets while having a 60-percent catch rate. Wilson also has six games with seven or more catches this season.
Texans Pass Defense
The Houston Texans are currently No. 21 in the NFL in Pass DVOA. They have shown the ability to give up receptions to teams’ top wide receivers. Adam Thielen went for eight, Chris Olave seven, Drake London six, Zay Flowers nine and Michael Pittman eight. The list could go on, but you get the point. The Texans also run only 19.7-percent man coverage, giving Wilson time to beat the Cover 3 and Cover 4 shells the Texans primarily run. This is also a matchup out of the Shanahan tree, as Demeco Ryan took over in SF for Robert Saleh. I expect Saleh to use his top weapon this week and exploit Steven Nelson who should be mostly lining up on Wilson. This line is currently -115 at DraftKings and Caesars. At BetOpenly’s +104, that is too much value on one of the best wide receivers in the NFL.
