Week 14 TNF Showdown: Raiders at Rams

by Matt Babich · Betting & Props

The Week 14 TNF Showdown features the Raiders at the Rams. I’ll be guiding you through the important aspects to watch in each Thursday night matchup. I’m sure you’re all excited for this riveting matchup. Without further ado, let’s see what Las Vegas and Los Angeles have in store for us in what could be the worst Thursday night matchup this season.

Advanced stats and analytics will be utilized to identify favorable matchups and players to avoid. The purpose of this article is to paint a picture of how the teams play and match up with one another in less than 1,500 words.

As the season continues, less emphasis will be put on last season and early season’s stats. Vegas trends will also be implemented to help predict the game flow. I’ll conclude the article with a Cliff Notes section and give the readers my prediction for the game.

Vegas Trends

  • Las Vegas is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Las Vegas’s last 6 games.
  • Las Vegas is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games when playing as the favorite.
  • John Wolford is 2-1 ATS in his 3 games playing as a starter.
  • LA Rams are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing as the underdog.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams’ last 6 games.
    • The total has gone OVER in 2 of John Wolford’s 3 starts.

Notable Injuries

Las Vegas

  • Josh Jacobs (Calf, Probable)

Rams

  • Matthew Stafford (Everything, OUT)
  • Aaron Donald (Ankle, OUT)
  • John Wolford (Neck, Questionable)
  • Ben Skowronek (Shoulder, Questionable)

The Las Vegas Raiders

It’s time Derek Carr gets his flowers. Behind the disaster that is the Raiders, he is averaging 19.27 (No. 11) fantasy points per game and has thrown at least two touchdown passes in every game since week 9. What he lacks in efficiency, he makes up for with his aggression. He’s airing it out with 9.1 (No. 5) Air Yards per Attempt. With 30 (No. 3) Money Throws, we’re even seeing a clutch gene from Carr. He’s been automatic since week 9 and is a top-12 option against a Rams defense that has given up nearly 20 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the last four weeks.

In a landslide, the winner of the 2022 “Most Surprising Performer” award goes to Josh Jacobs. Drafted in the back of the seventh round, he now boasts 22 (No. 2) fantasy points per game and leads all runners with 1,303 rushing yards. The fifth-year vet is getting worked to the bones in the ground game. What’s unexpected is his heavy usage in the passing game. He’s drawing 4.3 targets per game on a 12.5-percent (No. 11) Target Share. It shouldn’t have been surprising given it’s nearly his exact 2021 pace, yet few foresaw this usage. Jacobs projects to be a weekly top-10 option but faces a lower floor against a Rams defense preventing backs from scoring and catching the ball.

TNF Prop No. 1: Derek Carr OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Similarly to his days in Green Bay, Davante Adams is commanding a surreal 33.2-percent (No. 1) Target Share and 129.6 (No. 1) Air Yards per Game. He’s drawn 17 (No. 4) Red Zone targets and 24 (No. 4) Deep Ball Attempts, yet has propelled a good amount of his production by himself, generating 5.04 Yards After Catch per Reception. Don’t worry about the matchup against Jalen Ramsey. Adams torched Pat Surtain and Stephon Gilmore this season, and Ramsey has been getting put in the toaster weekly (See Metcalf, D.K). With a -2.4 (No. 73) Coverage Rating on the season, Ramsey will be watching the back of Adams’ jersey.

Moreau Time

With Darren Waller injured, Foster Moreau stepped into the pool of tight-end streaming candidates. The Rams have given up a touchdown to a tight end in five of the last six weeks. Moreau has scored in two of his last four contests, seen a red zone target in three of his last four, and earned five + targets in four of his seven games since Waller’s injury. Simply put, his post-Waller opportunity share is promising. With an 8.5 (No. 8) Average Depth of Target and six (No. 9) Deep Targets, he has the ability to produce standalone production without a score. I love Moreau as a streaming candidate and expect him to find paydirt.

Foster Moreau Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Finally, we have an interesting spot play in Mack Hollins. I think it’s safe to say no one expected this, but Hollins has been usable to the tune of four 10+ fantasy point performances in his last seven games with six such games in 2022. With Hunter Renfrow on IR, the Raiders were left with little option, but Hollins answered the call. He’s playing nearly every snap and is consistently earning at least five targets. Tonight’s game script won’t favor him, but I like Hollins as a deep flex play with touchdown upside.

The Los Angeles Rams

This team will be easier to write about. If you have to play a Rams quarterback tonight, well let’s just say I’ll be praying for you. Baker Mayfield is unlikely to start this quickly after being signed. John Wolford is not a much better play. He’s cleared 10 fantasy points once in three starts, and he’s maxing out at 13 fantasy points. In his two starts this season, he’s put up nine and eight points, respectively. Either of these options would be quite literally the worst option at the position. Do yourself a favor and stay far away.

Is Cam Akers back? The afterthought burst over the goal line twice last week against the Seahawks, racking up 60 rushing yards on a semi-respectable 3.5 yards per carry. Ranking poorly in every efficiency metric PlayerProfiler keeps track of, Akers certainly isn’t a bonafide threat. However, he’s facing a mouth-watering 56.4-percent (No. 1) Base Front Carry Rate. This means he’s not seeing a surplus of defenders in the box. The Raiders pose a favorable matchup as well, posing as a bottom-three rush defense that gives up plenty of touchdowns. Considering this, I expect Akers to rank as a low-end RB3 who may find the endzone. Play with extreme caution.

Cam Akers Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

TNF Prop No. 2: Kyren Williams OVER 11.5 receiving yards

Kyren Williams has also shown to be an inefficient runner but possesses a better receiving skillset than that of Akers. He’s drawn at least one target in each game since his return from injury and has collected three receptions twice. As the Rams are likely going with a “hot hand” approach, it’s tough to gauge how many opportunities Williams will be given. With the Raiders giving up the most receiving yards in the NFL to running backs, Williams has a good opportunity to create fantasy points through the air. I like his potential for props and DFS, but I’m sitting Williams in redraft.

A Ram I actually have expectations for is Tyler Higbee. It’s been a disappointing season thus far for the veteran as he is yet to find the endzone. Higbee scored 15 fantasy points against Arizona in his first game with John Wolford but put up a massive dud last week. He is the team’s only seasoned pass catcher and lines up against a defense giving up the No. 6 most fantasy points and No. 7 most touchdowns to tight ends. Don’t have fantasy PTSD. Trust the matchup and the skill of Higbee to shine through.

BONUS Longshot parlay: Foster Moreau ATTS & Tyler Higbee ATTS (+975)

It’s been three weeks since a Rams receiver caught more than three passes in a game. That receiver, Allen Robinson (who is now out for the year), was the last worthwhile receiver the Rams had. The names remaining are Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, and Tutu Atwell. Atwell cashed in on a 60+ yard score in Week 11 and led the team in targets last Sunday. Clearly the most exciting of the three, Atwell will be seeing more looks going forward. Against a Raiders defense that can’t stop giving up explosive plays, Atwell would be my only potential play in this receiving core as he has the best chance to cash in on a score with a considerable amount of yardage.  I would only consider this in deep leagues.

Cliff Notes

  • Derek Carr is an automatic 2 TDs.
  • Josh Jacobs has a lower floor this week than many might think.
  • Foster Moreau and Tyler Higbee are solid streaming options in Week 13.
  • Mack Hollins and Cam Akers are emergency flexes in deep leagues.
  • Tutu Atwell, with his big play potential, is the only Rams WR worth talking about.

Conclusion

The Rams enter tonight’s contest as 6-point underdogs. John Wolford has covered this number in two of his three career starts, while the Raiders have covered or pushed this number in all five of their wins. The Raider’s secondary is suspect, but their defensive front will manhandle the Rams’ offensive line. While the Rams managed to play a close game last week, they don’t win a single matchup against this team. I don’t expect this to be a landslide, but I do expect the Raiders to cover.

The point total lands at 44.5. The Raiders have been under machines as they’ve controlled the pace of play and have limited possessions. The Rams have been a part of 44 and 50-point games in Wolford’s two starts in 2022. That being said, the Raiders have a far different style of play than Seattle and Arizona. The Raiders’ dedication to the run will slow this game down especially facing an inferior opponent on a short week. Because of this, I’m going against the public, and I am taking the under.

2022 record:

  • Spread: 7-8
  • Total: 9-6
  • Props: 16-9

Prediction: Raiders 21-13