Welcome to the Week 15 NFL DFS Cash Game breakdown and picks article! If you’re new to this article or DFS Cash Games, please check out my “10 Rules to Live By” article.
We are back on track in Cash Games. Last week was a sweep on both sites if you followed along here. That has us on a two-game winning streak. My tournament tidbits though…ouch! The Vikings stack could not have possibly gone worse. It didn’t help that Justin Jefferson was knocked out of the game early and Joshua Dobbs was so ineffective he was pulled from the game, but either way, that wasn’t going to be a tournament winning combination.
As usual, these picks are for the main Sunday slate. I was hoping once we got past the byes, we would have a larger slate with more games to choose from. Unfortunately, the NFL schedulers have not been so kind. No worries; we will find the plays and get it done!
Week 15 NFL DFS Cash Game Picks:
QUARTERBACK
Matthew Stafford
FanDuel: $7200
DraftKings: $6100
If I had to play the same quarterback on both sites, I would play Matthew Stafford. The only real concern with Stafford is his lack of rushing production. He gives literally no bonus in the way of rushing yards or touchdowns. What he does do, though, is sling the rock. Stafford has three consecutive games over 22 fantasy points. He has an elite wide receiver corps with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The reports of Kupp’s demise were vastly overstated. He is alive and well and still a threat to go yard at any point. This year, Stafford is also backed by an elite run game. At his price tag, you have to take a long hard look at him this week.
Quarterback on FanDuel
The real consideration on FanDuel this week is between Stafford or paying all the way up for Josh Allen. $9000 is quite a bit higher than the $7200 for Stafford, but with the looser salary cap on FanDuel, it is viable to spend up there on quarterback.
There are a few other options on the way up, such as Patrick Mahomes for $8100. Mahomes hasn’t been dominant, but you’re fine plugging him in as well. If you don’t have a strong feeling about any of these three, take the one that fits once you build out the rest of your roster.
Quarterback on DraftKings
Over on DraftKings, I believe the choice is even clearer that the play is Stafford. If you are going to pay up, the option is Allen. The salaries are clumped together with Allen at $8200, Dak Prescott at $8000, and Mahomes at $7800. You don’t save enough to consider the latter two. The choice for me is Stafford, but I would understand if you want to go with Allen, who will have to put the team on his back down the stretch in order for them to make the playoffs.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey
FanDuel: $10500
DraftKings: $9300
Not a lot more to say here about Christian McCaffrey we haven’t already said this year. He just keeps getting it done and his salary isn’t so outrageous you can’t play him. He is a slightly better play on DraftKings than he is on Fanduel due to the lower salary and full PPR.
Ezekiel Elliot
FanDuel: $6500
DraftKings: $5800
Last week, this spot was occupied by Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I want to be clear Ezekiel Elliot is a far better play than CEH was. Since Rhamondre Stevenson went down, Zeke has really stepped up. Last week, with the full game as a starter, he put up the top running back score in PPR scoring with 27 fantasy points. He did so on a 91.2-percent Snap Share with 22 carries and 21 routes run. We love to see that kind of usage. He is far too cheap to pass up.
The other cheap option this week is Antonio Gibson. I like Zeke better than him, but am totally fine using both in lineups.
Kyren Williams
FanDuel: $9600
DraftKings: $7500
Running back this week is really straight forward. On Draftkings you should be using CMC, Kyren Williams and one of Zeke or Gibson. On FanDuel, you should be playing Zeke, Gibson and one of CMC or Williams. If you do anything else in cash games, you are doing it wrong.
As crazy as it sounds, Williams’ usage rivals that of CMC. With a Snap Share of 84.6-percent (No. 1) and 18.9 (No. 3) Expected Points Added per game, Williams is in elite company. His price tag on DraftKings is simply too low, and he is fairly priced on FanDuel, keeping him in play there as well.
WIDE RECEIVER
Rashee Rice
FanDuel: $6400
DraftKings: $6100
Queue the Eminem music: “Guess who’s back, back again, Rice is back, tell a friend. Guess who’s back, guess who’s back, guess who’s back…” Rashee Rice hit last week and has emerged as the Chiefs clear WR1. He’s been in the article multiple times now. Enough said.
Jayden Reed
FanDuel: $6100
DraftKings: $4900
Jayden Reed pops as the top play in my model on DraftKings this week and a top-5 play on FanDuel. It has been a great rookie year for Reed and with Christian Watson now out, he could really emerge here as the quintessential “league winner” for season long fantasy. I will settle for him as a “week winner.”
Jayden Reed Advanced Stats & Metrics
I absolutely love Reed’s player comp: Stefon Diggs. Reed also has a nose for the end zone. Remember, he has been a part time player up until this point, but still has 15 Red Zone Targets (No. 13) and seven total touchdowns (No. 8). Reed is a Cash Game lock this week on both sites.
CeeDee Lamb
FanDuel: $6100
DraftKings: $4900
Last but certainly not least is CeeDee Lamb. In fact, Lamb has actually been the best wide receiver in football over the last several weeks. He leads the league in Red Zone Targets with 23.
CeeDee Lamb Advanced Efficiency Stats 2023
You have to love Lamb’s efficiency stats, highlighted by his .62 Fantasy Points Per Route Run (No. 3). The real question is his salary. Can you fit him and the running backs in? That is going to a be a tall task. The roster construction is in your capable hands. I’m confident you’ll make good decisions and, whether you decide to go with Lamb or a high end running back, you will be in the game come crunch time Sunday afternoon.
TIGHT END
DraftKings
Again, I find the best way to address tight end is from an overall viewpoint. On DraftKings, you are deciding between Trey McBride at $5200 or Chigoziem Okonkwo at $2900. The decision is straightforward. If you can afford McBride, you absolutely want to play him. He has been a smash play over the last seven weeks. If you need the salary, Chig is a fine option.
FanDuel
On FanDuel, I believe the correct play is Jake Ferguson at $5900. Travis Kelce and Trey McBride grade out ahead of Ferguson on my model, but I still believe when you look at the overall picture and take roster construction into account, Ferguson is the way to go. If you absolutely have to save on salary, Chig is totally fine at $5000. I have been seeing Tucker Kraft $4700 mentioned in places, but I really wouldn’t want to go there.
DEFENSE
Los Angeles Rams DraftKings ONLY $3100
My preferred defense on DraftKings is the Los Angeles Rams. The price point is good and they get the Sam Howell matchup that has been targeted all season.
Howell is taking sacks at a historic pace. It’s really amazing he is still able to walk around this late in the season. He also loves to sling the rock and their top running back is out meaning there are likely even more pass attempts which are opportunities for sacks and interceptions.
New Orleans Saints FanDuel ONLY $4600
On FanDuel, I can’t really find a defense I am comfortable with that is cheap. There are several to chose from at the top, but for my money I am going with the Saints. They have been solid all season and put up some high scores at times. The Giants somehow have improved since Daniel Jones went down, but even so, they are still terrible. The other option is a YOLO play: the Carolina Panthers at $3300. The concern is how much Atlanta likes to run the football. The run-heavy game plan doesn’t allow much opportunity for sacks and turnovers.
Conclusion
It’s a good idea to learn from our losses as well as our wins. Circling back to the disaster that was last week’s GPP picks in the Vikings/Raiders matchup, this week’s theme is perception. Even this late in the season, there is a perception that the Vikings defense is nothing to fear. It’s time for that to change. It is strange that the defense improved in an offseason where the team lost several starters and didn’t add big names in free agency, but that is exactly what happened.
Thursday night’s game underscores the Vikings’ improvement even more. After being shut out by the Vikings, the Raiders came out and put up 63 points on the Chargers. The moral of story is be careful when targeting the Vikings defense. I won’t make that mistake again and neither should you. Any preconceived notions should be put to bed. Good luck this week!
