This is Week 18 NFL Best Bets on BetOpenly! Here, the PlayerProfiler staff provides their best picks to take on BetOpenly. BetOpenly is a spot where you can maximize value by avoiding the juice Vegas wants you to pay. In Week 17, our picks went 1-3. Let’s finish the regular season strong. We return with four best bets from Ahaan S. Rungta and Trevor Tipton with odds that you can only get at BetOpenly.
As a reminder, BetOpenly has launched peer-to-peer player props. Bettors now can also get better odds by 10 to 20 points than they can at a traditional sports book.
If you would like an introduction to using BetOpenly and want to know why it is more profitable than using a traditional sportsbook, check out our opening article of the season.
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On BetOpenly, you have the option to take or create your own bets on game lines (such as outright wins or spreads) but also to combine player props through the Instant DFS/Props menu. In today’s article, we have a few picks from each category. It is important to tail with discipline. Stick to your normal wagers, don’t chase wins or losses, and play your peers instead of the juice-hungry sportsbooks.
Ahaan’s Week 18 Picks
Jordan Addison (MIN) OVER 48.5 receiving yards (+108)
This is a textbook buy-low. The rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison has stayed under this line in five of his last six games, but the opportunity has been there as he has averaged 77.7 air yards per game in that span. This includes a 65-air yard game against the Detroit Lions where he only ran 32.5-percent of the routes before getting hurt.
Tight end T.J. Hockenson is out. This means Addison is the second-option pass catcher on his team and now faces a Detroit defense that ranks No. 31 in dropback EPA per play allowed since they came off Bye in Week 10. Minnesota is still technically alive for a playoff spot, so they will go 100-percent trying to win this game with Nick Mullens. On sportsbooks, Addison’s receiving yard prop is either juiced to the over or has moved to 49.5. On BetOpenly, you can still get this line at plus-money.
Carolina Panthers +4.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+100)
Sometimes, you just have to hold your nose and play the long-term game. The profitable side in the last week of the regular season is often just the one that goes against the grain of playoff narratives. The Panthers have nothing to play for this season while their opponent, the Buccaneers, are fighting for a playoff spot and division title. Historically, fading teams in similar “must-win” scenarios in the final week of regular season play has been a good strategy. This is the idea is that Vegas overcorrects for the motivation of a playoff fight since they know the public will lean heavily toward the team with more at stake.
This system has historically hit at an approximately 60-percent rate. However, we also get a tough spot for Tampa Bay in general. Since the head coaching change in Carolina, franchise quarterback Bryce Young has had a brand-new game. He leads all qualified quarterbacks in air yards per game and is spreading the ball around to all his weapons who also happen to be mostly healthy.
Buccaneers Offense
On the other side, the Buccaneers have injury designations on quarterback Baker Mayfield, wide receiver Trey Palmer, left tackle Tristan Wirfs, and cornerback Carlton Davis III. They rank as a bottom-12 defense in run stop win rate, pass rush win rate, and EPA per play allowed. The Panthers fit multiple separate systems as well. The Vegas total of 37.5 in this game is low, suggesting a struggle for both offenses overall.
Since the 2018-19 season, underdogs in games with a total of less than 42.5 are 205-150-10 against the spread (57.7% hit rate). Within the division, that spikes to 85-57-4 against the spread (59.6% hit rate). Additionally, the Panthers are a good buy-low after a shellacking in Week 17. Since the 2003-04 season, underdogs coming off a loss by 20 or more the previous game are 275-222-15 against the spread. This is good for a +7.1-percent return on investment.
Since October 2021, Baker Mayfield is 0-6 against the spread as a favorite of at least three points. Even though he could come through for his team in the clutch to send them to the playoffs with a win, it is smart to take the points with Carolina while snagging the key numbers of three and four in the process.
Trevor’s Week 18 Picks
Khalil Shakir (BUF) OVER 24.5 receiving yards (+100)
It is Week 18 and a must win for the Buffalo Bills against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday Night. The biggest blow for the Dolphins after losing Chubb is that Xavien Howard is doubtful for this game. This will help Buffalo be able to move the ball through the air which they have struggled to do recently.
Shakir has been a consistent performer for the Bills this season, averaging 3.4 targets and 34 receiving yards per game. This number is already well above his prop bet line, indicating that he has the potential to exceed expectations against the Dolphins. One of the key factors contributing to Shakir’s success is his impressive catch rate. At 84.6-percent, he has proven to be a reliable target for his quarterback. Furthermore, 69.7-percent of his catches have resulted in first downs, demonstrating his ability to make crucial plays when it matters most.
Another reason to believe in Shakir’s ability to surpass the 24.5 receiving yards mark is his performance against the New England Patriots in Week 17. He hauled in four catches for 39 yards on four targets, showcasing his ability to make the most of his opportunities. In what should be the most fun game to watch even with Miami’s injury problems, Shakir is one of my favorite spots to attack this week.
Josh Allen (BUF) OVER 0.5 touchdowns (+113)
The Bills have decided that Allen is their goal line back ever since Joe Brady took over. Allen now has 15 rushing touchdowns on the season and eight have come in the five games since the switch was made to Brady. One of the key factors contributing to Allen’s success is his impressive track record against the Dolphins. In his career, Allen has faced Miami 12 times and has thrown for 26 passing touchdowns and eight rushing touchdowns. This history of success against the Dolphins bodes well for his chances of having a big game in Week 18.
The Bills’ offensive line has been playing exceptionally well in recent games, providing Allen with the necessary protection to make plays with his legs. This strong offensive line play will be crucial in helping Allen reach the end zone on the ground. The Bills have shown they are not going to bring Cook out for those goal line rushes and even Leonard Fournette‘s signing has not affected Allen near the goal line. In the last five games, Allen has 66.7-percent of the Bills carries inside the 5-yard line carries. 17.6-percent of them have scored. In a week in which the Dolphins will have no Jerome Baker, Bradley Chubb, Jaelen Phillips and more questionable/doubtful players than we can list, this is a great spot to attack Miami this week.
