Welcome back to our expert article series, where Billy Muzio, Trevor Tipton, and Ahaan S. Rungta provide their best Week 3 NFL Picks to take on BetOpenly—a spot where you can maximize value by avoiding the juice Vegas wants you to pay.
If you would like an introduction to using BetOpenly and want to know why it is more profitable than using a traditional sportsbook, check out our opening article of the season.
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In Week 2, we all landed on the wrong end of pivotal plays. The Rams kicked a field goal in garbage-time to hook the 49ers of a cover of the spread. The Patriots allowed a huge play from Raheem Mostert on the ground and were inches away from a potential game-tying drive to rob us of a shot at a +150 win. Overall, we went 2-4. It is time to get sharper and bounce back.
On BetOpenly, you not only have the option to take or create your own bets on game lines (such as outright wins or spreads), but also to combine player props through the Instant DFS/Props menu. In today’s article, we have a few picks from each category. It’s important to tail these picks with discipline. Additionally, it’s important to stick to your normal wagers. It’s not wise to chase wins or losses. You can also play your peers instead of the juice-hungry sportsbooks.
Ahaan’s Week 3 Picks
New England Patriots to Win (-138)
Last week, we were burned by a Patriots roster that had spurts of good football but blunders on both ends of the football that led to big plays for a dynamic group of Dolphins playmakers. New England was involved in a close contest at home. However, they eventually saw their 0-2 record sealed by a breakaway run from Raheem Mostert.
We don’t hold grudges in this business though. We are getting a buy-low in Week 3 against a Jets roster that is severely inferior without their quarterback of choice. The Jets offense has unsurprisingly been subpar under quarterback Zach Wilson Wilson ranked dead-last among all quarterbacks in early down EPA per play. Additionally, he ranked around middle-of-the-pack in late down EPA per play.
As previously explained in offseason articles, there isn’t much to be impressed with in the Jets’ pass-catching room outside of stud wideout Garrett Wilson. However, Wilson will be tasked with the tough matchup when he faces rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Gonzalez graded as PFF’s top Week 2 cornerback. New England just restricted Tyreek Hill to 40 receiving yards and should have no issues bottling up a Jets offense that is heavily dependent on their lead wide receiver’s greatness.
Jets Defense
Let’s shift our focus to the Jets defense, and their matchup against a shallow Patriots offense. Although that Jets’ defensive unit has been one of the league’s best since last year, this is an overreaction. In Week 1, Buffalo was held back by Josh Allen‘s four turnovers but still allowed wide receiver Stefon Diggs to power his way to 102 yards.
In Week 2, wide receiver CeeDee Lamb eased his way to 143 yards. Teams are finding ways to get their best weapons efficient production on this defense. Even though New England doesn’t have a certified alpha, they have enough healthy weapons to accompany Mac Jones‘ strong play. Through two weeks, Jones ranks top-10 among all quarterbacks in success rate and slightly above league-average in completion percentage over expected (CPOE).
Take the team with the better offense and arguably better defense right now to get the job done and avoid beginning the season 0-3 for the first time since Belichick’s first year as head coach.
This bet is up near -150 on most sportsbooks. However, you can avoid paying that much juice by taking this on BetOpenly and a discount of nearly 15 cents.
Denver Broncos Spread +6.5 (+100)
This is another buy-low on a team that looks better to start off the 2022-23 season and isn’t getting respect from the books. Despite the Broncos’ 0-2 start, they are unsurprisingly an above average rush defense by EXP. That, by itself, should be scary for a Dolphins team that prides themselves on setting the tone with a strong running attack.
For Miami, there are several concerning injuries. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill is expected to play but was limited in practice with an ankle issue. Wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is dealing with a concussion and was out of practice. Offensive lineman Terron Armstead was limited in practice with three separate injuries. For Miami to successfully dominate this game, they will have to find a way to keep tempo with Denver’s deep offense. I’m not convinced this is a spot for them to do so.
Russell Wilson has quietly had himself a solid start to the season. Through two weeks, he ranks top-10 among all quarterbacks in success rate and top-3 in CPOE. Now, he meets a Miami defense that ranks middle-of-the-pack in pass defense EXP and dead-last in run defense EXP.
It’s wise to take the points with Denver in this one. Denver should be able to take advantage of Miami’s banged up personnel. This bet is around a standard sportsbook pick ‘em at -110 on most platforms, but you can avoid paying the intended juice by taking this at a coin-flip price on BetOpenly.
Trevor’s Week 3 Picks
Brian Robinson (WAS) OVER 55.5 rushing yards (-110)
Robinson is a bell-cow running back. He has led the Commanders in rushing attempts in both of their games this season, and he is averaging 18.5 carries per game.
This week he is facing a Buffalo Bills defense that is ranked No. 20 in the NFL against the run. The Bills have allowed an average of 113.5 rushing yards per game this season. The Commanders have the No. 5 best rushing matchup grade in Week 3 of the NFL.
Robinson is coming off a strong game against the Denver Broncos last week. He rushed for 87 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries.
Currently he has 99 yards after contact in two games, with 67.8-percent of his yards coming after contact. This puts him in elite company in the NFL. In addition, he is currently getting 72-percent of the Commanders Rushing Attempts.
Bijan Robinson (ATL) OVER 23.5 receiving yards (-110)
Bijan, as everyone saw last week, is one of the most dynamic receivers out of the backfield in the NFL. Even after the slow Week 1 start, Robinson now has 10 receptions for 75 yards.
Robinson currently is leading the league for RBs in Route percentage at 75-percent. This is tied with Christian McCaffrey. While having a monster 22-percent Team target share which is WR level production.
The Lions currently have the No. 27 Ranked DVOA pass defense in the NFL. Smith has shown he is going to run his offense through Robinson and Allgeier.
Atlanta has 60 total drop-backs this season thus far. Robinson has run routes on 45 of those. We like to target backs with volume upside and the ability of breaking their line with one play. Robinson has this ability with every opportunity he receives.
Robinson is also currently averaging 7.5 yards per reception with a 90.9-percent catch rate. If you add that in with his upside and yards per target, this will most likely be one of the lowest lines for him this season moving forward.
Billy’s Week 3 Picks
Cole Kmet (CHI) OVER 29.5 receiving yards (-114)
Cole Kmet has solidified his presence this season, with nine notable catches from thirteen targets, aggregating 82 yards and averaging 41.0 yards per game. Despite the odds favoring Kansas City, the game script is setting up intriguingly for Kmet, offering him the chance to surpass the line of 29.5 receiving yards. Playing from behind, the Bears will likely be in passing mode. This will create ample opportunities for Kmet to exploit the Chiefs’ defense and rack up yards and receptions.
Given Kmet’s consistency, there is an 84.5-percent probability he will surpass the 29.5 receiving yards against the Chiefs.
New Orleans Saints Spread +2.5 (+100)
The New Orleans Saints are heading into a much-anticipated matchup with the Green Bay Packers. While the odds from BetMGM might be favoring the Packers on their home turf, the Saints, with just a two-point disadvantage, are not far behind. A close battle is projected, with the over/under sitting at 42.5, hinting at a likely outcome of Packers 23, Saints 20.
This predicted scoreline indeed surpasses the Saints’ total points from the first two games and falls below the Packers’ accumulated score. However, the Saints are poised to present the Packers, and particularly their quarterback, Jordan Love, with the toughest defensive challenge they’ve encountered so far in the NFL.
The Saints’ defense has proven to be formidable in the initial weeks, ranking No. 5 in the NFL for the fewest points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, No. 11 to running backs, and No. 8 to wide receivers. Impressively, they’ve been the sternest defense against tight ends, surrendering the least points across the league to this position.
In contrast, the Packers’ defense appears more susceptible. This opens up possibilities for Derek Carr and the Saints’ offense to find their rhythm and exploit weaknesses on a pleasant afternoon in Wisconsin. I personally believe that the Saints, in spite of the minor odds against them, have a solid chance of securing an upset against the Packers.
