Advanced stats and analytics will be utilized to identify favorable matchups and players to avoid. The purpose of this article is to paint a picture of how the teams play and matchup with one another in less than 1,000 words.
As the season continues, less emphasis will be put on last season and early season’s stats. Vegas trends will also be implemented to help predict the game flow. I’ll conclude the article with a Cliff Notes section and give the readers my prediction for the game.
Welcome to the newest edition of Monday Night Showdown. I’ll be guiding you through the important aspects to watch in every Monday and Thursday night matchup.
Without further ado, let’s what the Bills and Titans have in store for us this week.
Vegas Trends
- Buffalo are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 3 of Buffalo’s 5 games this season.
- Buffalo are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 away games.
- The total has gone OVER in 10 of Tennessee’s last 14 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee’s last 6 games against Buffalo.
- Tennessee are 2-4 in their last 6 games at home.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen and Zack Moss
After a slow start, Josh Allen and the Bills are rolling once again. Allen is back to efficiently pushing the football downfield, with a 9.9 (No. 2) Adjusted Yards per Attempt average and a 50.0-percent (No. 3) Deep Ball Completion Percentage. He has also been getting it done on the ground, a big contributor to his 25.9 (No. 4) Fantasy Points Per Game. Allen will continue to put up elite production against a weak Titans defense.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdgkNpJFnVM
Neither Zack Moss nor Devin Singletary are pleasing fantasy assets. However, Moss has been fairly viable due to his receiving upside and his 4 (No. 8) Total Touchdowns. Moss and Singletary split touches at about a 50/50 rate, but Moss has been the only one to make them count. Moss is flexible in PPR formats, while Stink-letary belongs on the bench…or the waiver wire.
Buffalo Pass Catchers
Tonight is the Stefon Diggs breakout game. He’s still a target hog, racking up a 31.8-percent (No. 5) Target Rate and 11 (No. 2) Deep Targets. Allen and Diggs haven’t quite been able to get the connection dialed up to where it was last season. Even though No. 27-ranked cornerback Kristian Fulton is a solid matchup, Diggs has ate versus better corners. This is the game that the buy window closes.
Stefon Diggs 2021 Opportunity & Productivity Metrics
Emmanuel Sanders is ageless. He’s gathered at least five targets in every game this season, and has firmly supplanted WR2 status with 15.2 (No. 23) Fantasy Points Per Game. Plenty of his production has come from touchdowns, but in Buffalo there are plenty of those to go around. Sanders will have another solid night going up against Janoris Jenkins, who has a -4.4 Coverage Rating.
Most PPR points scored on targets of 15+ air yards
Ja’Marr Chase 64.2
Deebo Samuel 54.5
Marquise Brown 53.2
Mike Williams 49.2
Tyler Lockett 49.0
Tyreek Hill 47.9
DK Metcalf 43.7
Mike Evans 42.8
Cooper Kupp 41.3
Emmanuel Sanders 41.2
Terry McLaurin 40.7
Henry Ruggs 40.5
— TJ Hernandez (@TJHernandez) October 14, 2021
Dawson Knox is the third-year breakout that no one saw coming. He’s scored a touchdown in five straight games and is *checks notes* DOMINATING production in the Bills receiving room with a 30.3-percent (No. 1) Dominator Rating. The Titans are currently giving up the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, making this a tough matchup. At this point, if you have Knox, you’re likely in a position where you need to start him.
Dawson Knox 2021 Efficiency Metrics
Besides one boom week, Cole Beasley has been quiet this season. With Sanders’ arrival, Beasley has been pushed down to the “irrelevant” zone. His low Target Share and -33.1 (No. 147) Target Premium renders him unreliable in all formats.
Tennessee Titans
Tanne-thrill and King Henry
Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans have struggled this season. Tannehill has eclipsed 300 yards just once, and has posted a dismal 75.8 (No. 23) True Passer Rating en route to 17.2 (N0. 21) Fantasy Points Per Game. This is a tough spot for a rebound game, going up against the league’s best defense versus quarterbacks. Tannehill is worth starting only in 2QB/Superflex leagues.
Ryan Tannehill 2021 Passing Productivity & Efficiency Metrics
Despite mostly facing negative Game Scripts, Derrick Henry continues to be fed at a mind-blowing rate. The league’s leading rusher has 108.8 (No. 1) Weighted Opportunities, which has led to a whopping 26.9 (No. 1) Fantasy Points Per Game. The Bills have the best defense versus running backs, but King Henry should still be started wherever you have him.
Titan Pass Catchers
The late questionable tag on A.J. Brown means nothing. He’ll be out there tomorrow night, and hopes to have his first productive game of the season. The talent and opportunity are there, they just haven’t translated to production yet. Brown ran a route on every single Titans pass attempt last week, and we can expect the same tonight. That being said, he faces No. 6-ranked CB Tre’Davious White, and hasn’t been reliable enough to trust in starting lineups unless you need a Flex.
A.J. Brown Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Julio Jones returns after missing two weeks with a hamstring injury. Jones also hasn’t lived up to expectations, but doesn’t have the opportunity metrics to support a turn around. His 74.5-percent (No. 57) Route Participation and 18.0-percent (No. 47) Target Share do not show promise. Jones is an “in case of emergency” Flex play against No. 28-ranked CB Levi Wallace.
Julio Jones 2021 Opportunity & Productivity Metrics
It wouldn’t be surprising to see another Titans pass catcher find the end zone and have a decent night, but none are talented enough to tout confidently with this receiving core seemingly at full strength.
Cliff Notes
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Zack Moss is a reliable low-floor play in PPR formats.
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The Stefon Diggs explosion game is tonight.
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Play Dawson Knox no matter what.
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Ryan Tannehill is startable in 2QB/Superflex formats.
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Start King Derrick Henry.
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A.J. Brown is a risky, high upside flex play.
Conclusion
Buffalo is rolling and Tennessee is the next bump in the road. The Bills have the much, much better team and I don’t expect this to be much of a game. Even if the score is “close,” I expect Buffalo to control the game. As always, the Bills you have been relying on you can trust to roll out in your lineup again. On the flip side, this is an ugly matchup for Titans fantasy producers.
I like the Bills to cover the 6 point spread as favorites. Where I go against the consensus this week is with the point total. The Bills are averaging 39 points in the last 4 weeks and have shown no signs of slowing down the offense with a lead. I expect the Bills to put up enough points to have the over 53.5 total points hit.
Prediction: Bills 34-21
