It’s time for my DFS Week 6 picks! Thanks for following along each week. It’s been so much fun sharing my love of DFS with you. This week, the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers are both on a bye. Not only are we dealing with byes, but we’re also dealing with a slew of tough injuries. Together, we’ll make it through. Below, you’ll find my favorite picks for the Sunday Main Slate of games and a little bit about why. Let’s get into it!
Week 6 NFL DFS Picks
QB Picks
Justin Fields ($7.3K DraftKings / $8.5K FanDuel)
If you weren’t sure about Justin Fields, now is the time to get on board. After last week’s outing, Fields became the fourth QB since 1970 to achieve more than 5,000 passing yards and more than 1,500 rushing yards in his first 30 starts. He also became the first player since 2021 (taking out Joe Burrow‘s record) with more than four touchdown passes and a QB rating of greater than 125 in two consecutive games. Let’s see him make it three games in a row this week against a weak Minnesota defense.
Matthew Stafford ($6.1K DraftKings / $7.3K FanDuel)
Matthew Stafford currently ranks No. 4 among QBs in the league in both passing yards (1,451) and completions (124). The Rams are facing a Cardinals defense that has been taken a beating. Safety Jalen Thompson is out at the time of publication with a hamstring injury. The Cards are already down Budda Baker and Antonio Hamilton in the secondary. Stafford is projected to bring 18.5 FPPG on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Brock Purdy ($5.6K DraftKings / $7.2K FanDuel)
Brock Purdy is likely to be on a lot of radars this week, as the team is now 5-0 for the season. Purdy had a career-high game with 4 passing touchdowns in Week 5. Much like Justin Fields, he’s breaking records as a young QB, becoming the third QB since 1970 to win each of his first 10 career regular season starts. His salary doesn’t really reflect that, so is it a trap? Cleveland is supposed to have the toughest defense in the league, but they’ve not been consistent by any means. I like this gamble.
How QBs have produced vs perfectly covered plays (x-axis), and non-perfectly covered plays (y-axis). Brock Purdy is the only QB with a positive EPA when every coverage player has done their job. Herbert has been the best QB at taking advantage of busted coverages this year pic.twitter.com/qXqkSiDV4y
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) October 11, 2023
RB Picks
Raheem Mostert ($6.4K DraftKings / $8.5K FanDuel)
Raheem Mostert is tied for the league lead with eight total touchdowns (seven rushing touchdowns) so far this season. With his teammate De’Von Achane injured, we’re likely to see many more touches for Mostert this week. He’s projected to bring in 15.8 FPPG on DraftKings and 13.8 on FanDuel. I’m quite surprised at the low salary on DraftKings. His rostership will likely be higher on that platform because of it.
Kyren Williams ($6.5K DraftKings / $8.2K FanDuel)
Kyren Williams is a great value this week. He’s going up against a battered Cardinals defense and looking to rack up the points. This could be his sixth game in a row with more than 50 scrimmage yards if the Cardinals can’t keep a lid on him. Sadly, I don’t think they’ll be able to without their defense at full strength.
Emari Demercado ($4.9K DraftKings / $5.9K FanDuel)
The rookie running back Emari Demercado is taking the league by storm this week after getting his chance to shine. I wish that chance wasn’t at the expense of a James Conner injury, but here we are. DeMercado racked up double-digit fantasy points for managers last week, scoring his first career touchdown. Can he do it again this week? Perhaps. The Rams have a pretty mediocre defense overall, so there’s a chance we could see some magic.
WR Picks
DJ Moore ($6.5K DraftKings / $8.0K FanDuel)
I really like DJ Moore this week against Minnesota. He had eight receptions and set career highs with 230 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns in Week 5. This matchup could mark his third game in a row with more than 100 receiving yards and his fourth in a row with a touchdown catch. This sounds like a good way to start a prop bet…
DJ Moore: 93.7 receiving grade on contested targets
1st in the NFL 🐻 pic.twitter.com/QuaoiDABw1
— PFF (@PFF) October 11, 2023
Tyler Lockett ($5.7K DraftKings / $6.6K FanDuel)
If you like statistical probabilities, then Tyler Lockett might be your man. He has had five receiving touchdowns in his past five games on the road. He’s also aiming for his fourth game in a row on the road with more than 50 receiving yards. His salary is pretty manageable and I don’t anticipate rostership to get out of hand. There are a lot of great receivers to spread around among managers this week.
Josh Reynolds ($4.5K DraftKings / $6.7K FanDuel)
I really like the value this week on Josh Reynolds versus Tampa Bay. They’ve had a decent defense this season, but Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable at the time of publication, which could mean additional opportunities for Reynolds. He’s projected for nine-plus FPPG. At this salary? I’m in.
TE Picks
Sam LaPorta ($5.6K DraftKings / $6.0K FanDuel)
Sam LaPorta is back in my lineup again. I will ride this train until the wheels fall off! Last week, LaPorta became the third rookie TE in NFL history with more than 25 catches or more in their first five career games. He’s also leading all tight ends in the league with 289 receiving yards so far this season. His salary has come up a little bit, but still nowhere near where I’d expect it to be for the performance he’s bringing. It’s extremely manageable for the upside. Make it work.
Logan Thomas ($3.5K DraftKings / $5.4K FanDuel)
If you’re looking for some salary cap relief, take a look at Logan Thomas. The Commanders are facing a defense ranking No. 28 in the league against the tight end position. Last week, Thomas gave a fantastic performance, leading his team with nine receptions for 77 yards and a receiving touchdown. I like the odds here.
DEF/DST
Miami Dolphins ($3.5K DraftKings / $4.8K FanDuel)
The Miami Dolphins are projected to bring in 8.6 FPPG this week and they’re really well priced on DraftKings. They’ve also got a great matchup versus the Panthers this week. I’m not willing to pay up for them on FanDuel, however.
New England Patriots ($2.6K DraftKings / $3.6K FanDuel)
If you need a real bargain, look at the Patriots. They’re projected for 6.4 FPPG and they’re dirt cheap this week against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders haven’t been looking great, so this could be a good opportunity for the Pats!
Use Your Resources
Now that you’ve seen my picks, have you checked out the PlayerProfiler DFS Dominator and Fantasy Tools? There are options for every budget and every fantasy football use case, from sports betting to creating and maintaining the most optimized league roster. I’ve been making it a habit to run my favorite lineups through the tools, and it’s paid off every week.
If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on the app formerly known as Twitter, @KellyInPhoenix. Thanks for reading! See you next week!
