In Week 7 of the NFL season, fantasy football managers witnessed a whirlwind of events that sent shockwaves through the fantasy landscape. As playoff aspirations come into sharper focus, two compelling storylines emerged that could dramatically affect the rest of the season. In this article, we delve into the impact of Brock Purdy‘s recent struggles amidst injuries and an enticing soft schedule for the San Francisco 49ers. In addition, I’ll discuss Tua Tagovailoa‘s roller-coaster performances in a high-octane Miami Dolphins offense. This may be overshadowed by a grueling upcoming schedule. Join us as we navigate these polarizing quarterbacks and whether or not they can help fantasy football managers push for a playoff spot.
Brock Botches Easy Matchup
After starting the season with five straight wins, the 49ers have suffered back-to-back defeats. Most notably, Brock Purdy has struggled without his full cast of players. Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams missed Monday night’s game. Additionally, Christian McCaffrey suffered an injury in Week 6 that limited him. Purdy wasn’t able to take advantage of a softer matchup as a result. He threw a couple of costly interceptions.
Through five games, he appeared to be on an MVP campaign. However, two lackluster performances could change the narrative on Purdy. Purdy is a capable passer and able to take advantage of one of the best offensive situations in football. However, despite him being No. 12 in fantasy points per game, he is No. 29 in Expected Fantasy Points Per Game. This is his expected fantasy production given an average performance on any particular play.
Brock Purdy Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
There is a massive difference between these two outputs. These numbers show just how efficient Purdy has been. Samuel is top 12 in yards after the catch at his position. McCaffrey is the best receiving back in the NFL. This is as great a situation as any quarterback has in the NFL because these skill-position players can turn a short pass into a big play. Purdy will get back on track, but he will be very dependent on the players around him.
Sunshine on the Horizon?
The good news for San Francisco? Their schedule for the remainder of the season is remarkably easy. They will face a bottom 15 pass defense in seven of their final nine matchups. While Purdy isn’t a locked-in top 12 quarterback every week, he can be relied on in softer matchups when Samuel and Williams return.
If Purdy is dropped in redraft leagues after a couple of tough performances and an upcoming bye, he will be a priority waiver wire add too.
Week 7 Fantasy Football Dynasty Ramifications
Purdy is a safe start for the rest of the season, but questions remain about his long-term outlook. There isn’t a better roster from top to bottom in the NFL, and the 49ers have placed a ton of faith in the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. If Purdy can’t elevate the offense when it’s less than 100-percent, his job security may not be as safe as we think. This is especially true given how many quarterbacks could presumably succeed in this offense.
Brock Purdy Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
A cheap contract will make Purdy hard to let go of, but if the 49ers don’t win it all this year, it’s fair to assume they will consider all of their options. San Francisco is in a Super Bowl window, so they would be a desirable destination for a veteran quarterback such as Kirk Cousins. The soft schedule the rest of the way will give him an opportunity to build momentum, but his true test won’t be until the NFL playoffs, where there will be high expectations.
Dynasty Trade Advice
With everything considered, Purdy sits just outside my top 12 quarterbacks in dynasty fantasy football leagues. I have him right behind Bryce Young and just ahead of Kirk Cousins in my quarterback rankings. This seems fairly in line with consensus.
He’s absolutely a player I would send a late first-round pick for in a Superflex league if I was a contending team. However, rebuilding teams should consider parting with him for a projected mid-first-round pick or better. Consider him a strong short-term option for the 2023 and 2024 fantasy football seasons.
Tough Times Ahead for Tua Tagovailoa?
Tua Tagovailoa has been a mixed bag for fantasy purposes in 2023. While he has three top 5 quarterback performances, he’s also finished outside the top 17 quarterbacks three times as well. Furthermore, his best two games have come against two of the three worst pass defenses in the NFL. While the offense is prolific, it’s safe to wonder if Tagovailoa is the must-start fantasy option he was perceived to be.
This is especially true considering the Dolphins’ tough schedule for the remainder of the season. Tagovailoa has the toughest schedule for any quarterback in the NFL in terms of adjusted fantasy points allowed (JJ Zachariason). The fantasy playoff schedule is brutal as well, with matchups against the Jets, Cowboys, and Ravens.
There isn’t a more explosive offense, and the presence of Tyreek Hill assures Tagovailoa will have some big performances. However, it may be tough for fantasy managers to tell when those games come. Similar to Brock Purdy, there is a large difference between Tagovailoa’s fantasy points per game and his Expected Fantasy Points Per Game. Extreme efficiency is driving his fantasy production, which may fluctuate depending on the matchup and who is healthy.
As a result of the difficult upcoming schedule, Tagovailoa is a sell in redraft leagues. At the very least, fantasy managers should consider rostering a second quarterback in 1QB formats if Tagovailoa begins to struggle in these tougher matchups. If an opposing fantasy manager sees him as a difference-maker still, consider parting for a dependable WR2 or RB2.
Week 7 Fantasy Football Dynasty Ramifications
There are a lot of similarities between Purdy and Tagovailoa’s circumstances this season. Both are in terrific offensive situations with a plethora of talent at the skill positions. Simply being an effective game manager can make these players must-start players. However, they are more dependent on their supporting cast than any other quarterbacks in the NFL.
Given the fantastic rosters these teams have developed, if Tagovailoa and Purdy aren’t close to perfect, the door will always be open to bringing in a different signal caller to lead the way. Until either of these players takes the next step, it will be tough to rank either of them as a top 10 dynasty quarterback.
Additionally, Tagovailoa doesn’t have the easy schedule that Purdy does the rest of the way. This makes Tagovailoa far more likely to lose dynasty fantasy football value between now and January than gain it. If he isn’t a top 10 fantasy quarterback week in and week out, many will begin to question if he’s squandering his opportunity with this offense.
Dynasty Trade Advice
Rebuilding teams should consider moving Tua Tagovailoa for a 2024 first-round pick and a talented player such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Superflex leagues. Considering his potential to lose fantasy value, it’s best to trade him while he is still valued highly and look to acquire another quarterback in the 2024 off-season. Given how difficult quarterbacks are to come by, there is certainly a contender in need of his services.
Even contending teams should explore their options and consider acquiring a quarterback with a better rest-of-season outlook. While there aren’t many signal callers fantasy managers can trust week to week, Tagovailoa’s dynasty value has never been higher. Explore what it would take on top of him to add a player such as Lamar Jackson or Justin Herbert. Rosters are becoming thinner and thinner, and a manager might be willing to part with a premier quarterback to add another starter.
