It’s time for my DFS Week 7 picks! Thanks for following along each week. Last week, we saw players taken out mid-game due to injury such as QB pick Justin Fields. What a bummer, but it’s a brand new week, so onward and upward! Below, you’ll find my favorite picks for the Sunday Main Slate of games and a little bit about why. Let’s get into it!
DFS Week 7 Picks
QB Picks
Geno Smith ($6.0K DraftKings / $7.0K FanDuel)
This is a rivalry-based divisional matchup, and Geno Smith will be at home facing the visiting Arizona Cardinals. While the Cardinals have shown valiant effort, this feels like a slam dunk on fantasy points for Geno Smith. If you’re curious about rostership, we’re looking at projections of 11-percent of rosters on DraftKings and 9-percent of rosters on FanDuel. He’s projected to bring us 18 FPPG on both platforms. He’s also aiming for a 9th game in a row at home where he’s thrown a touchdown pass.
Patrick Mahomes ($8.3K DraftKings / $9.2K FanDuel)
If you like to pay up for your QB, Patrick Mahomes has the priciest salary of the week. He also comes with the highest projected points for the week with 23 FPPG projected on each platform. Rostership for DFS Week 7 is looking pretty decent on DraftKings in particular with fewer DFS managers projected to roster him (7-percent). Last week was his 43rd career game with 300 yards or more, the most in NFL history since 2017.
RB Picks
Kenneth Walker III ($7.0K DraftKings / $8.8K FanDuel)
Let’s stack it up! This could be Kenneth Walker’s 5th game in a row with a rushing touchdown. Also, he’ll be playing on his home turf against a very inconsistent Cardinals defense. If you consider rostership in your strategy, fewer managers are picking up Walker on Fanduel (15.8 FPPG), likely due to the pricey salary. This stack is quite manageable on DraftKings (16.8 FPPG), but keep in mind that he’ll be on many DFS Week 7 rosters there.
Josh Jacobs ($7.4K DraftKings / $8.0K FanDuel)
Josh Jacobs has had a rushing touchdown in two of his last three games and led the team with 93 scrimmage yards last week. He has a pretty manageable salary considering the value he’s bringing to the table against a struggling Chicago Bears team. You’ll be seeing him on at least 20-percent of rosters this week. He’s projected for 13.9 FPPG on FanDuel and 15.5 FPPG on DraftKings.
Javonte Williams ($5.4K DraftKings / $6.0K FanDuel)
Javonte Williams led the team with 52 rush yards last week. He’s had 40 or more rushing yards in four of five games this season. In this week’s matchup against the Packers, he’s projected for 10.9 FPPG on DraftKings with just a three-percent projected rostership. On Fanduel, he’s projected for 9.6 FPPG and just six-percent rostership. That surprises me considering his low-end salary on both platforms, plus the fact that the Packers rank No. 27 in defending the rush.
WR Picks
Cooper Kupp ($9.5K DraftKings / $9.7K FanDuel)
I don’t recall such a pricey pick on DraftKings ever before, but here we are with Cooper Kupp. Facing a Steelers defense ranking No. 29 in allowing WR points, he’s projected for more than 20 FPPG on DraftKings and 16.6 on FanDuel. Also, despite the price tag, he’s still projected to be on 20-percent of DFS rosters this week. This could mark his third game in a row with seven or more catches and 115 or more receiving yards. Oh, and this is a fun little tidbit of information – he’s had seven or more catches in 12 of his last 13 games.
First Reads and Air Yards Shares, Week 5
– Cooper Kupp is right back where he belongs
– Somebody should look into this Adam Thielen business — are Panthers fans upset?
– Jakobi Meyers' and Marquise Brown's usage has gone relatively under-discussed
– DJ Moore👀 pic.twitter.com/idI3vsIGiC
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) October 10, 2023
Tyler Lockett ($6.0K DraftKings / $6.8K FanDuel)
DK Metcalf ($6.8K DraftKings / $7.7K FanDuel)
Do we continue to take advantage of a shaky Cardinals defense with Seattle at home? Both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are projected to play by committee again this week, with both projected to bring at least 13 FPPG. Both of their salaries are quite manageable and both of their rostership percentages are in the midrange of 10- to 13- percent. It’s evident that the community is split on which is their favorite as a DFS Week 7 pick , but I’ll give the edge to Metcalf here.
Curtis Samuel ($4.0K DraftKings / $6.4K FanDuel)
Did you know that this week could be the 4th week in a row that Curtis Samuel scores a touchdown? I like those odds and his increased usage week over week. At this salary, he’s an extremely affordable addition to your roster with very high upside. Projected for 10.1 on DraftKings and 8.4 on Fanduel, he’s a solid WR2 for any lineup. Rostership is midrange on DraftKings, at 10-percent due to the extremely low salary and it’s projected for just three-percent over on FanDuel.
TE Picks
Mark Andrews ($5.7K DraftKings / $6.9K FanDuel)
Mark Andrews is facing a Lions defense that ranks No. 26 in the league in allowing points to tight ends. He’s projected for 13.2 FPPG on DraftKings and 11.2 FPPG on FanDuel. This could be his 3rd straight game with 65 or more yards. This feels like a great prop bet…
Mark Andrews is the TE2 on the Season despite posting…
his LOWEST Target Share since his Rookie Year
his LOWEST PFF Receiving Grade since his Rookie Year
on an offense throwing the third LOWEST pass attempts per game
Mark Andrews still has MASSIVE Upside pic.twitter.com/cNul1zEd8o
— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) October 17, 2023
Luke Musgrave ($3.3K DraftKings / $5.0K FanDuel)
Luke Musgrave is facing the worst defense in the league both generally and positionally this week in the Broncos. His rostership shows it, too! At such a low salary range, DFS managers will be able to spend up at other positions by rostering Musgrave. He’s projected for 8-ish FPPG.
Sam LaPorta ($5.6K DraftKings / $6.0K FanDuel)
Sam LaPorta is tied for first among tight ends in the league for receiving touchdowns (3) and second in receiving yards (325) this season. Here’s the downside – Baltimore ranks tops in stopping tight ends. That being said, I don’t think that will stop the Lions offense from targeting him. He’s been a consistent favorite target of Jared Goff throughout the season. He’s projected for 10.4 FPPG on DraftKings and 8.3 on FanDuel. Please note that he is questionable again this week with a nagging calf injury and was limited last week.
DEF/DST
Tampa Bay ($3.6K DraftKings / $4.0K FanDuel)
Projected to bring in 8.3 fantasy points this week, I really like Tampa Bay as our defensive play this week. And the salary is really manageable, since I hate paying more than $4,000 for any defense, and their points projection against Atlanta is the highest in this tier.
Use Your Resources
Now that you’ve seen my picks, have you checked out the PlayerProfiler DFS Dominator and Fantasy Tools? There are options for every budget and every fantasy football use case, from sports betting to creating and maintaining the most optimized league roster. I’ve been making it a habit to run my favorite lineups through the tools, and it’s paid off every week.
If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on the app formerly known as Twitter, @KellyInPhoenix. Thanks for reading! See you next week!
