Welcome to Week 8 NFL Best Bets on BetOpenly! Here, the PlayerProfiler staff provides their best picks to take on BetOpenly. BetOpenly is a spot where you can maximize value by avoiding the juice Vegas wants you to pay. In Week 7, our picks went 1-2. Our moneyline pick was a sweat-free plus-money Bears win but our two player props were both close misses. This week, we are back with best bets from Ahaan S. Rungta and Trevor Tipton, with odds you can only get at BetOpenly.
On Monday, BetOpenly launched peer-to-peer player props on Monday. You now can also get better odds by 10 to 20 points than a traditional sports book which also charges on average 10-percent juice. When you see a player prop for -110 at another book, you will generally see that prop at BetOpenly for +108 to +100. That is massive savings and a value you cannot get anywhere else.
If you would like an introduction to using BetOpenly, and want to know why it is more profitable than using a traditional sportsbook, check out our opening article of the season.
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On BetOpenly, you not only have the option to take or create your own bets on game lines (such as outright wins or spreads), but you also have the ability to combine player props through the Instant DFS/Props menu. In today’s article, we have a few picks from each category. It is important to tail the picks with discipline. Stick to your normal wagers, don’t chase wins or losses, and play your peers instead of the juice-hungry sportsbooks.
Ahaan’s Week 8 Picks
Green Bay Packers to Win (+117)
Jordan Love has not been good over the last few weeks. Even with his top wideout Christian Watson back, he is struggling to throw the ball accurately downfield. It has caused the Green Bay Packers to lose three straight games. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings are coming off back-to-back wins including a stunning primetime defeat of the San Francisco 49ers. Now is the time to sell high on the mediocre Minnesota roster and buy in on Green Bay at home.
Part of the reason for Green Bay’s skid is star cornerback Jaire Alexander dealing with injuries that have caused him to miss three of his last four games. Reports suggest that Alexander could be in line to return in Week 8 after he was spotted in practice. Head coach Matt LeFleur was optimistic about his availability in this matchup. The Packers rank around middle-of-the-pack as a passing defense by EXP. Their No. 1 cornerback returning should be a problem for a Vikings offense that will be without star wide receiver Justin Jefferson.
Packers Offense
On offense, the Packers’ concern will be the inconsistent throwing of Love. However, the Packers will get a bounce back spot at home against the Vikings. On the season, Minnesota ranks just middle-of-the-pack in run stop win rate, pass rush win rate, and pressure rate. They will now have to go against an offensive line that ranks No. 2 in pass block win rate despite missing David Bakhtiari for nearly the full season. This bodes well for Love, whose metrics unsurprisingly skyrocket when kept clean in the pocket. Watson is also likely available on Sunday after practicing on Wednesday.
Under LeFleur, the Packers are 45-32-0 against the spread (No. 3-best cover rate in the NFL), 14-7-0 against the spread following a loss (No. 2-best cover rate), 24-14-0 against the spread at home (No. 2 best cover rate), and 12-9-0 against the spread with the rest advantage (No. 8-best cover rate). Expect those numbers to bulk up even further after they pick up an outright win as 1.5-point underdogs in Week 8. On most sportsbooks, the moneyline is sitting at around +105. At BetOpenly, you can snag over a dime extra at +117.
Trevor’s Week 8 Picks
Nico Collins (HOU) Over 56.5 receiving yards (+100)
Collins is currently the top target for the Houston Texans and CJ Stroud. The Texans are coming off a bye and have had plenty of time to prepare for this matchup. While Carolina is one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, they are middle of the pack in pass defense. However, Collins gets the No. 2 best WR/CB matchup this week against Donte Jackson. Houston has a team total of 23.5 this week while Stroud has a line of 239.5. PlayerProfiler also projects Stroud over his total. Additionally, we expect a big week out of Collins.
2023 has been the breakout season for Collins. He currently has a team leading 496 air yards on 42 targets which is tied with Woods who is now going to miss Week 8. He has an outstanding 13.02 yards per target while getting 18.6 yards per route. Nico is No. 7 in the NFL with 246 yards after the catch, and this will continue to grow this week against the Panthers. Carolina has been barely average this season in giving up yards after the catch. Additionally, they play one of the higher zone rates in the league. Collins has been able to attack Zone defenses this season. Pittsburg, who has been the No. 3 best defense for zone completion percentage, gave up seven catches on nine targets and 168 yards to Collins in Week 4.
Tank Dell
Tank Dell is coming back which will help stretch the field this week against Carolina and will open up the middle for Collins. The Panthers also have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. As a result, we should see a heavy dose of both Houston RBs allowing the Texans to set Collins up for big play action plays. This line is currently -125 at DraftKings and -131 at Caesars. The value at +100 at BetOpenly is too large to pass up this week on a line that should be 72.5.
Rashee Rice (KC) Over 3.5 receptions (-138)
Rashee Rice, the rookie wide receiver for the Kansas City Chiefs, is a breakout candidate for Week 7 against the Denver Broncos. Rice has been slowly increasing his role in the Chiefs’ offense, and he is now averaging over five targets per game. He is also developing a strong rapport with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, as evidenced by his five-catch performance in Week 6. Denver has been abysmal to put it nicely this season on pass defense. Marquez Valdes-Scantling will draw a majority of Patrick Surtain II this week while the Broncos have to focus on slowing down Travis Kelce. This will open the door of opportunity for Rice to continue to cement himself as the No. 2 receiving option (Kelce is always 1) in this offense.
There are several reasons why Rice is poised for a big game against the Broncos. First, the Broncos’ secondary is one of the worst in the NFL. They are ranked No. 29 in passing yards allowed per game and No. 31 in opponent passer rating. This means that Mahomes should have plenty of opportunities to throw the ball, and Rice should be one of his primary targets.
Lead WR Target
Second, Rice now is No. 2 on the Chiefs in targets, receptions, and has an impressive 195 yards after the catch all while growing in his role in this offense. Since Week 3, Rice has increased his role each week while having a 80-percent catch rate. This combined with his matchup against the dumpster fire Broncos passing defense, and we believe this line will close at 4.5 not 3.5.
Finally, the value that BetOpenly brings is unmatched in the prop market. This line is currently -138 at BetOpenly while being -166 at Caesar’s. That is almost 30 points of value. If you continue to use those kinds of lines, you can win less often and still be a very profitable bettor. Kansas City will have no problem scoring through the air on the Broncos this week and will continue to expand their AFC West lead. Rice will be a big part of the game plan this week and is also a great candidate to ladder.
