Wide Receiver ADP | 3 Players Being Drafted Too Low

by Aditya Fuldeore · Best Ball Plays & Strategy

As we enter re-draft and Best Ball season, draft boards and wide receiver ADP start to take shape. Every year, there are a few players that go under the radar with paths to smash their ADP. In this piece, I discuss a few wide receivers being drafted too low in drafts that fantasy gamers should look to target on platforms like the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).

Donovan Peoples-Jones

The Cleveland Browns offense got off to a slow start under Deshaun Watson last season. Entering this season, the Browns have added Cedric Tillman and Elijah Moore to an Amari Cooper-led WR room. However, Donovan Peoples-Jones still has the WR2 job. It is his job to lose. Last season, DPJ had an 88.5-percent (No. 17) Snap Share and was second on the team in receiving yards, targets, and receptions. He had 21 (No. 21) Deep Targets, making him Cleveland’s deep-ball receiver.

Between Moore and Tillman, Tillman is the closest in archetype to Peoples-Jones. This makes him a threat to take Peoples-Jones’ targets. However, Tillman is a rookie and will take time to get integrated. DPJ also possesses higher Burst and Speed Scores than Tillman, making him a better candidate to get downfield and stay in the deep-ball role. Having Watson for a full season and more up to speed since returning won’t harm his case either. Peoples-Jones’ current FFPC ADP is just outside the top-200. This makes him a low-risk sleeper late in drafts.

Nico Collins

Entering Year 3, Nico Collins now has a franchise QB in C.J. Stroud to catch passes from. With Brandin Cooks gone, Collins’s serious target competition comes from Dalton Schultz, rookie Tank Dell, 31-year-old Robert Woods, and John Metchie. Metchie in particular is returning from a miraculous bout with leukemia, but has been sidelined with a hamstring injury this offseason. With a clear path to being Houston’s leading receiver this season, Collins is a good value in drafts.

Last season, Collins had a 66.7-percent (No. 2) Contested Catch Rate and 112.2-percent (No. 4) True Catch Rate. He saw a 50.0-percent (No. 99) Catchable Target Rate and 6.3 (No. 100) Target Accuracy with Davis Mills and Kyle Allen throwing to him. Now with Stroud, expect some improvement in the targets Collins sees. He is big and athletic, with a 10.32 (95th-percentile) Catch Radius. This makes him a great security blanket for a rookie QB. Collins is currently going just outside the top-150 in both Underdog and FFPC ADP. With a path to being Houston’s WR1, grab him late in your drafts.

Jayden Reed

Second-round pick Jayden Reed is going to slide into Green Bay’s offense immediately. While Christian Watson is expected to be the team’s WR1, Reed will be the slot receiver for Jordan Love. Allen Lazard is gone. Watson and Romeo Doubs are the only two current Packer WRs that got over 50 targets in Green Bay’s offense last season. There is opportunity to be had for Reed. Reed has the highest draft capital among Green Bay WRs, besides Watson.

While the Green Bay offense will suffer from losing Aaron Rodgers, expect volume to be Reed’s biggest friend. Love doesn’t have a large sample size as a passer, but expect Green Bay to play from behind more often than years past. This will lead to higher pass volume. Reed possesses an 18.4 (98th-percentile) Breakout Age and had a 35.7-percent (73rd-percentile) College Dominator Rating. He is currently going outside the top-200 in FFPC. Reed is going outside the top-150 in Underdog drafts, making Reed a good upside pick.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Last season, Marquez Valdes-Scantling was Patrick Mahomes‘ No. 2 WR. He caught deep targets and stepped up in the AFC Championship. He posted a 14.6-yard (No. 7) Average Target Distance with 16.4 (No. 8) Yards Per Reception last season and is poised to reprise a similar role for the Chiefs this season. Kansas City only added Rashee Rice to its WR corps this offseason while losing JuJu Smith-Schuster, who led Kansas City WRs in receiving last season. Valdes-Scantling was the only other Chiefs receiver to get over 50 targets.

With Travis Kelce locked in as Mahomes’ target leader, Valdes-Scantling will compete with Rice, Skyy Moore, and Kadarius Toney for WR targets. He is the tallest of the group, with a 117.6 (98th-percentile) Speed Score, locking in his role as a big deep-ball threat. Toney is consistently the first Kansas City receiver being taken in drafts, often in the top-100. Toney has seen a Snap Share of over 60.0-percent in just four games of his career. None these games came as a Chief. Moore, who saw 33 (No. 108) Targets last season, and the rookie Rice are also being drafted over Valdes-Scantling. Take a chance on the veteran MVS, who is being drafted outside the top-250 in FFPC and outside the top-150 in Underdog. He has an established role in a high-powered Chiefs offense.