The Playoffs are finally here! We here at PlayerProfiler are going to preview EVERY game this post-season. This is the preview for the Wild Card Showdown: Chargers vs Jaguars. They met earlier this season, and the Jaguars completely trounced the Chargers 38-10. This time around it should be much more entertaining. Without further ado, let’s take a deeper look at these teams and this game!
How to Watch:
Date: Saturday, January 14
Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
Channel: NBC
Stream: Peacock/NBC Sports App
Betting Lines:
Spread: Chargers -2.5
Total: O/U 47.5
Money: Chargers -145/Jaguars +120
Editor’s Note: These lines are current as of 1/12/2023
The Jaguars
The Jaguars finished the year 9-8, winning the AFC South. The offense finished No. 10 in both Points For and Yards. The defense was No. 12 in Points Allowed and No. 24 in Yards Allowed. They are getting hot at the right time having won five straight. This is their first playoff appearance since 2017.
Injuries to Monitor
Jamal Agnew and Trevor Lawrence have both had limited practices this week, but both are expected to play. Lawrence’s injury in particular he has been dealing with for weeks, so he should be fine. Mostly, keep your eye on the Agnew shoulder injury. But given that it’s the playoffs, and he practiced in at least some capacity, he should be out there Saturday night.
Offense
The offense is led by second-year QB Trevor Lawrence who has enjoyed quite the breakout season. He finished the year top ten in passing yards, Money Throws, pass TDs, Air Yards, pass attempts, accuracy rating, True Passer Rating, and even rush TDs. He has been the heartbeat of this offense as the other Jaguars’ weapons have been good but not great.
The receivers are led by Christian Kirk who finished the year with 1,108 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Zay Jones and Evan Engram have decent roles in this offense too. Jones went for 823 yards and five TDs, and Engram had 766 yards and four touchdowns. Engram in particular was one of the better tight ends this season too. He ranked No. 5 in targets, No. 7 in highest FPPG, No. 3 in catches, No. 4 in receiving yards, and No. 2 in YAC.
Time for some PlayerProfiler Wild Card Predictions plus the team gives their Super Bowl Matchup🧵
First up is @Fantasy_Mansion
The 49ers have won their last 5 home games by at least 13 points, but SEATTLE pulls off the convincing upset. pic.twitter.com/2fhDpf6gfW
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) January 12, 2023
Running back Travis Etienne has been the definition of hot or cold. Etienne had eight games over 100 yards and four with less than 60. He also only scored a touchdown in four games this season. However, he did finish the year with 1,125 rush yards (No. 8) and 316 receiving yards (No. 15).
Defense
The defense is led by Foye Oluokun who led the NFL in tackles this season with 184. Oluokun also produced two sacks, two fumble recoveries, and two forced fumbles. Josh Allen leads the team in sacks with six, but that makes him tied for No. 55 in the NFL overall. Four players on this team had three interceptions this year- Tyson Campbell (CB), Andre Cisco (S), Devin Lloyd (LB), and Rayshawn Jenkins (S). Jenkins in particular has been on fire as of late with two game-winning plays over the last few weeks. He had a game-winning pick-six against the Cowboys and a forced fumble that won them the division against the Titans in Week 18. The defense as a whole averages the No. 5 most takeaways per game with 1.6.
Fun Prediction: Travis Etienne goes for over 100 yards and scores a TD.
The Chargers
The Chargers finished 10-7, finishing No. 2 in the AFC West which landed them the No. 5 Seed. The offense finished No. 13 in Points For and No. 9 in Yards. The defense finished No. 21 in Points For and No. 20 in Yards Allowed. Since the return of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, the Chargers have been playing better. They have won four of their last five games. This is their first playoff appearance since 2018.
Injuries to Monitor
Mike Williams has not been at practice this week after picking up a lower back injury in a meaningless game on Sunday. However, the sentiment around the team is that he should be active in the game. Just keep your eye on it because even if he plays in a limited capacity, he is still more than capable of making an impact.
Offense
The offense is led by Justin Herbert who has been in a minor slump this year but is finally making his first playoff appearance. Despite only being No. 15 in fantasy points per game, he was No. 2 in passing yards, No. 1 in Money Throws, No. 8 in pass TDs, and No. 3 in True Completion Percentage. It’s not a hot take to say Herbert is one of the best QBs in the league. He even has one of the better sets of weapons around him. In the four games where both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen played in 50-percent snaps, the Chargers are 4-0, and Justin Herbert led the NFL in completion percentage.
The receivers have been unhealthy this year but have produced when they have played. Keenan Allen only played in 10 games but averaged 75.7 yards, 8.9 targets, and 6.6 receptions a game while scoring four times. He was No. 11 in PPR points per game with 16.4. Mike Williams played in 13 games and averaged 7.2 targets, 4.8 receptions, and 68.8 yards per game while also scoring four times. He was No. 20 in PPR points per game with 13.6. The rest of the wide receiving corps is made up of Josh Palmer, DeAndre Carter, and TE Gerald Everett who each have some role in this offense just not that big of one.
According to @aaronstew09's picks, home-field advantage is vital, but the New York Giants will be the Wild Card team to pull off an upset this year. pic.twitter.com/YVVl38df67
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) January 12, 2023
Austin Ekeler finished the year as the RB1 in PPR formats. He was highly efficient- leading RBs in targets, red zone touches, receptions, touchdowns, and points per game despite only having a 65-percent Opportunity Share (No. 14). He finished the year with 722 receiving yards (No. 2) and 915 rushing yards (No. 17).
Defense
The defense is led by safety Derwin James who has 115 tackles, two forced fumbles, two interceptions, and four sacks. Drue Tranquill leads the team in tackles with 146. Khalil Mack leads the team in sacks with eight (tied for No. 30), but Joey Bosa has been on IR most of the season and will play this weekend which makes the defensive front even more fierce. Cornerback Bryce Callahan leads the team in interceptions with three. The Chargers are No. 12 in the league in takeaways, averaging 1.4 a game.
Fun Prediction: Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler each score a touchdown.
DFS Value Play
Donald Parham Jr. – $1000
With an expensive selection of players, a guy with TD upside for only $1k may as well be thrown in-, especially in a game that could end up shooting out. Donald Parham has scored three touchdowns in each of the two seasons before this year but has only scored once this season because he’s been injured. He has had a near 50-percent snap share and at least one target in back-to-back games. Parham even scored in Week 17 against the Rams. His target share goes from 5.2-percent to 6.1-percent when the Chargers are in the red zone which clearly shows his usage goes up when they need to score even if it’s such a small percentage.
Best Prop
Marvin Jones Jr. – OVER 2.5 Receptions
Marvin Jones is averaging 5.1 targets and 2.9 receptions a game over the year. Over the last four weeks, he’s earned 23 targets. When they played earlier this season, Jones Jr. earned seven targets and totaled four receptions for 33 yards and a TD. He should at least get four targets in this game, and I like the odds of him going over this number.
