Results for: "rookie RB efficiency"

Courtland Sutton posted 250 completed air yards and three separate 40-yard splash plays so far this season. Zooming out, Sutton offers excellent size-adjusted athleticism, evidenced by upper percentile Agility Score and Catch Radius. On the production side, his College Dominator Rating, College Yards Per Reception, and Breakout Age checked in above the 65th percentile. 

Post-Demaryius Thomas trade, Keke Coutee still finds himself in a favorable rest-of-season position for fantasy production for a Texans team that runs 3-wide receivers sets on 54.5-percent of snaps. While Vyncint Smith has one NFL reception to his name in limited action, Coutee commanded an astounding 15 targets in his first NFL game, and his field stretching skill set most closely resembles Fuller’s abilities.

Walton looks more like Giovani Bernard than Joe Mixon, but that isn’t such a bad thing. His best comparable player, Devonta Freeman, implies a ceiling of NFL success, but his realistic outcome is more likely a back-up to Mixon.

Jordan Wilkins has a real shot at meaningful “2-down grinder” carries this season. Wilkins posted a 6.5 (85th-percentile) college yards per carry, and with Marlon Mack recovering from shoulder surgery, he could impress with additional reps in OTA’s.

Every year, we see the same mistake among dynasty league owners: using rookie picks to draft players who will lose value in their rookie season in the NFL. In order to complete a true dynasty, a team should accrue value from year to year. The savvy dynasty fantasy football player should use their early rookie picks on running backs. First-round rookie wide receivers are sucker bets.

Wide receiver looks poor compared to the other position groups, steadily losing value on average each year. The only names of much relevance today are Devin Funchess, Tyler Lockett, Zay Jones, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Cooper Kupp. Only three of thirteen second-round wideouts gained value in their first year – Malcolm Mitchell, Smith-Schuster and Kupp.

Ask the question: Which rookie’s value would rise the most if an established starting skill position player get injured? The answer is Scarbrough, an explosive running back operating in a quality running game. He is the ideal late-round upside pick in dynasty rookie drafts.

Justin Watson is an analytics dream. He has great size, elite athleticism, and outstanding college production. He checks every box. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers must have someone on staff who frequents playerprofiler.com, because this is the second year in a row they invested a mid-round pick in a solid analytics prospect.

In the last five years, only six of the 15 quarterbacks drafted top-3 at the position actually finished top-3. The average finish was instead QB8. During Watson’s 6-game streak, he threw 18 touchdowns on just over 200 attempts, a touchdown for every 11 throws. Russell Wilson, in last year’s QB1 season, threw one TD every 16 attempts.

While the Saints did lean more run-heavy than they have in the past, Brees will continue to enjoy the benefits of having Alvin Kamara as a receiving option. The team has also added Cameron Meredith and Tre’Quan Smith, both exciting young talents, but Brees doesn’t need to be better in 2018 to exceed expectations. All he needs is for the team’s touchdowns to fall more in line with historical production.

An adequate passer and an exceptional runner is a good combination for fantasy football (a la Cam Newton, Michael Vick). There is no way the fantasy ceiling for either Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen approaches that of Lamar Jackson, so getting him after both traditional pocket passers is a steal.

Tre’Quan Smith checks a lot of boxes, finishing above the 60th-percentile in key metrics from College Dominator Rating to Breakout Age to Speed Score. Looking the part of a proper NFL flanker, if Smith went to Alabama, he would have conceivably been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft.

Nick Chubb was Saquon Barkley before Saquon Barkley at the college level. Had Chubb not torn his ACL in 2015, he projected to be the No. 1 running back drafted in dynasty rookie drafts in 2017. Fortunately, Chubb demonstrated pre-injury explosiveness by posting a 91st-percentile Burst Score at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Courtland Sutton doesn’t have the clearest path to year one relevance behind Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas but his talent is undeniable. His size adjusted athleticism and collegiate production profile him as a true X receiver in the near future.

It intuitively makes sense that rookie quarterbacks should be cheaper to acquire going into their sophomore seasons after struggling as rookies. In spite of these struggles, the majority of recent first round QBs have actually gained value heading into their second seasons.

In order to accrue dynasty value year-over-year, it would be wise to spend second and third round picks on highly drafted rookie quarterbacks.

D.J. Moore is not only the best WR prospect of his class, he is one of the best of the past decade and a half. His insane combination of final year market share, breakout age, and NFL Draft Scout ranking gives him a fantastic projection in my WR prospect model.

If DJ Moore is off the board, Courtland Sutton is the logical next choice. Sutton is the signature split end/X-receiver prototype of this draft class and is one only a handful of first-round graded prospects in a weak wide receiver class. His college dominance and size-adjusted athleticism suggest his upside is almost uncapped.

When you draft a running back in the first round you get to see them in NFL action for a year then at that point you can decide if they are worth a long term investment. If you deem them unworthy of being a building block for your team you have a 79% chance of recouping or gaining on the value of the pick you had originally invested in them.

Running backs such as Royce Freeman are safer early-round investments in dynasty fantasy football as they maintain or increase value at a greater rate than their wide receiver counterparts.