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PlayerProfiler/RotoUnderworld Head Game Analyst and NFL Draft Analyst Cody Carpentier is back for more; now breaking down his NFL Mock Draft 4.0 in a short team-by-team series. Starting with the New York Jets, New York Giants, Detroit Lions, and on to Jacksonville. If you want to see your favorite team, go to Twitter @CarpentierNFL and leave Cody a comment on what team you want to see broken down next.

After taking Mekhi Becton in Round 1 of 2020 and Alijah Vera-Tucker in Round 1 of 2021, completing the Offensive line in this draft is a MUST for New York. Add in Sir Charles Cross in 2022 and your bookend tackles are locked in for the next 8-10 years to protect the future in Zach Wilson. The Jets have finished No. 24 and No. 29 over the last two seasons in Sacks Allowed.

South Carolina’s ZaQuandre White has had a Dora the Explorer-like route through college football land. He started out in the swampy marsh (Florida State), pulled the map out of his backpack and made his way to the big corn field (Iowa Western Community College), then said goodbye to his friends in JUCO-ville before strapping on his red boots and meandering back over to where he started in the sunny south (South Carolina, to be specific).

White is a relatively slimly built guy with underwhelming production. But he was an Austin Ekeler-caliber player at the JUCO level. He catches passes, and he’s dynamic with the ball in his hands. With a first name that kinda sounds like a bizarro version of Saquon, ZaQuandre White might be my new favorite full-skillset dart throw in this running back class.

The final week of DFS is upon us: The 2022 Super Bowl. Regardless of how you did during the season, everything you’ve done can be thrown out the window. There is a minimal method to the madness outside of a few key stats. Teams have two weeks to prepare, which means if there is a weakness, the other team will find it. 

We have to find a way to get those studs in our DFS lineups for the Super Bowl. So outside of Samaje Perine (tentatively), I’m not playing those flyers—not even if there was a fire. However, not playing a dart throw means you have to get creative with your lineups, especially if you want to get one of the top four options in your lineups. 

The RotoUnderworld community will be partaking in a series of 12-team, five-round rookie mock drafts, running through the spring and summer. The mock drafters will be comprised of PlayerProfiler writers/analysts, our friends in the Patreon community, and our good friends over at The Breakout Finder. While these pieces will include quick-hitting notes from the drafters about why they made their selection, our writers will take turns recapping the festivities and adding their own unique perspectives.

The fifth round this year looks to compete with the beasts of 2021, Chris Evans, Khalil Herbert, Ihmir Smith-Marsette, and Noah Gray to name a few. Can Kennedy Brooks, Abram Smith, Jeremy Ruckert, and Cole Turner take that leap – it remands to be seen. But one thing is for certain… We will continue to bring you actionable content daily at PlayerProfiler.com and BreakoutFinder.com through the NFL Combine, Pro-Days and the NFL Draft. Follow along on Twitter, YouTube, TikTok and everywhere else as we break down every 40-yard dash, every pro-day, and every draft pick in 2022.

Ride the Evan McPherson hype train to the bank. Mcpherson has hit this line in 12/19 games this season and has nailed 4 field goals in every playoff game this year. Not only has he been kicking hot, but all kickers this postseason have been performing at a high-level. Kickers in the 2021 postseason have averaged 1.92 field goal attempts per game and have a 89.1-percent success rate. Lock in the captain of the Bengals Swag Factory to go Over 1.5 Field Goals Made.

Van Jefferson Longest Reception Over 17.5 is a good bet because he has been a sneaky deep threat this year. Jefferson has a 13.3 (No. 11 among qualified WR) Average Target Distance (ADOT) and 16.0 (No. 7) Yards Per Reception on 5.2 Targets Per Game. As a result, he has hit this line in 16/19 games this season! Borderline lock confidence on this one.

Prop bets are becoming staples of the Super Bowl, and every year we look to have fun with some of the random ones. For example, “Will a player drop the trophy?” or “What color is the Gatorade?” However, I’m interested in the ones I can predict. So I turn to Underdog because I like the odds, and their app is easy to use. 

I firmly believe we will see the first wide receiver since Greg Jennings in 2011 haul in two touchdowns during the Super Bowl. I still like Kendall Blanton, but without Tyler Higbee, Cooper Kupp should have far more red-zone-designed plays. With two touchdowns, you don’t need a massive performance in the air, which is why I will pair combinations of Kupp’s OVER in fantasy points with the other receiving option’s overs in yards. 

The game will come down to how the offensive line can handle the pressure against Aaron Donald and Von Miller. Burrow only managed a 47.1-percent (No. 14) Pressured Completion Percentage. And for the Bengals to win, he will need to make big throws under pressure. On the other side of the coin, he ranks No. 1 in Clean Pocket Completion Percentage. He is also No. 1 with 8.8 Yards per Pass Attempt, But it helps if you’ve got talented teammates.

Now in Los Angeles, Matthew Stafford is surrounded by easily his best coaching staff and teammates. And it’s reflected in the metrics. His Touchdown Rate ranks No. 2 among quarterbacks with ten or more starts. And his 63.5 (No. 4) Total QBR puts him ahead of Patrick Mahomes. He also gets the benefit of throwing to outstanding pass catchers.

Mississippi Rebel Jerrion Ealy is a fun eval. Dude came into college as a 5-star recruit in football AND one of the top baseball prospects in the country. He spent three years catching a lot of passes and breaking a lot of tackles. While his production profile is underwhelming, his play-to-play ability is evident in his per touch efficiency metrics.

Jerrion Ealy is a far better receiver coming out of college than most of these guys were as prospects. He should have an easier time finding an NFL role than someone like Jaret Patterson. However, if the best player on your comps list is Darren Sproles, you probably won’t be fantasy-relevant. Ealy simply must be bigger come the Combine. With a prospect profile that doesn’t even stand out within his archetype, he’s not the droid you’re looking for.

It has become apparent that landing spot takes are not a very effective measurement of opportunity. Sure, landing spots or new coaches can smell like fantasy gold, but there are better advanced metrics that offer a closer look at who is really getting golden opportunities for your fantasy roster. Let’s find some 2022 breakout wide receivers using one of the ultimate tools of opportunity: Hog Rate.

Hog Rate alone can’t solely predict a breakout. It can certainly point you in the direction of wide receivers who have their offense’s attention while on the field. Which means more opportunities to produce fantasy points. It is no coincidence that these elite-tier guys have significant Hog Rates. So as you start drafting for 2022 and looking at trade targets, don’t forget these three names.

If we can’t predict how much college backs will weigh by the time they reach the NFL with any accuracy, then a nihilistic approach to pre-Combine listed weights is appropriate. And if we can predict it with accuracy but not until a player is three or four years into their college career, then not much advantage exists to be gained by paying attention early. Luckily, I’ve found that the answers to the above questions are “pretty well” and “pretty early.”

Pooka Williams and Chris Thompson were both 4-star talents who weighed 175-pounds as high school recruits. Williams was the better college player. But it’s probably not a coincidence that he went undrafted after measuring in at 170 at his Pro Day. Thompson was selected in the fifth round after being 192 pounds at the Combine. It’s unfortunate, but face it, fellas: size matters.