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If we can’t predict how much college backs will weigh by the time they reach the NFL with any accuracy, then a nihilistic approach to pre-Combine listed weights is appropriate. And if we can predict it with accuracy but not until a player is three or four years into their college career, then not much advantage exists to be gained by paying attention early. Luckily, I’ve found that the answers to the above questions are “pretty well” and “pretty early.”

Pooka Williams and Chris Thompson were both 4-star talents who weighed 175-pounds as high school recruits. Williams was the better college player. But it’s probably not a coincidence that he went undrafted after measuring in at 170 at his Pro Day. Thompson was selected in the fifth round after being 192 pounds at the Combine. It’s unfortunate, but face it, fellas: size matters.

The PlayerProfiler and RotoUnderworld Head Game Analyst, and NFL Draft Analyst Cody Carpentier is back from the Senior Bowl to bring the people version 4.0 of his 2022 NFL Mock Draft to update movement from the Senior Bowl, NFLPA Bowl, and Shrine Bowl Game.

The Worst-Kept Secret in Mobile all week, will be interested to see how Willis’s stock climbs once he runs a 4.44 40-yard dash in Indianapolis later this month. Willis was the only quarterback to take that next step at the Senior Bowl, earning all of the media and NFL scouts respect and appreciation after a dominant performance in the rain on Day 2. 

Say “Hello” to the 2022 PlayerProfiler All-Senior Bowl Roster, who most impressed our NFL Draft Analyst Cody Carpentier in Mobile over the past week, with not only their on-field skills but also their off-field temperaments and personalities as professionals during the week of practices. Some of these players will shine bright in the NFL, and it is our goal to uncover as many studs as possible. Thanks for following along and checking out the Top Prospects from the Reese’s Senior Bowl Practices.

Gabriel Davis has been a deeper threat in his career, ranking top-12 among WRs in Average Target Distance and Yards Per Reception both of his seasons in the NFL. He has also seen large red zone usage, ranking top-30 in Red Zone Targets both his seasons with 13 career touchdowns, more than Cole Beasley and Dawson Knox the last two seasons. Davis is efficient in several advanced metrics, apart from Catch Rate and Drop Rate, both of which he ranked outside the top-75 in this season.

Ultimately, Davis is an efficient receiver who garners large chunks of yardage and touchdown opportunity when he sees the ball. However, he has not received enough opportunity to see if he can be consistent as a weekly starter. His profile and ability as a more “chunk play” receiver contributes to his lesser opportunity, as he is seldom seen as a do-it-all guy like Stefon Diggs.

The final Pareto Principles of the year is underway. This column focuses primarily on the strategy and game theory elements of DFS. I do not discuss the individual matchups of players. Instead I am basing my stances on what the field is expected to do, and how to capture a similar ceiling with a unique build.

The conference championship is no time to cling to summer romance. Since returning from injury in Week 17, Elijah Mitchell has just six catches in four games for 18 yards. He also has just one score in that time, losing high-leverage carries to Deebo Samuel and all passing downs to Kyle Juzczyk. His high carry total provides a floor but not an insurmountable one if he’s kept from the end zone.

There are three quarterbacks in this Conference Championship round with three stacks you can feel confident in for DFS. If you want to get spicy, you could even include Jimmy Garoppolo in hopes the 49ers can’t run the ball, George Kittle gets involved, and Deebo Samuel takes a couple of dump-offs to the house. However, in the playoffs thus far, you haven’t won money unless your quarterback put up over 30 points.

The Sazerac has two possible bases to start with, pending on who you ask. Some believe the official cocktail of Louisiana and staple of New Orleans used a cognac due to the area’s connection to French spirits. Others believe it was made with rye whiskey and is currently is the more popular build. It’s the perfect cocktail to discuss the Conference Championship for DFS. Make the base with your liquor preference as long as it’s one of the two, just as this slate will likely have two options to stack.

Today, we’ll look at the AFC championship matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cincinnati Bengals, a rematch from Week 17 where Cincinnati scored in the last moments of the game and won 34-31. A key result of that victory, the Bengals won their first division title since 2009.

Once a young team with plenty of promise, the Bengals have given life to a franchise that had embodied mediocrity. Now they are four quarters away from the Super Bowl. I expect the Bengals to come out playing fast and pushing the tempo on offense; unfortunately for them, the offensive line may have trouble keeping the pace with its skill positions. Kansas City wins 35-27.

It pays to be provocative — I get it. Deadlines demand stories and content must be created. People love drama. I accept that, and I accept that Russell Wilson stirred the pot; but should we continue the pressure campaign? I say no, Russell remains a Seahawk and plays in Seattle beyond his contract. If Russell says he wants to be in Seattle, and team leadership want Russ in Seattle, media should kill the story.

Prior to the year, our excitement regarding Ryan Tannehill was based in his high-efficiency paired with elite weapons. For the first time since Week 7, all of Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Julio Jones will on the field for the Titans. While I am loath to attack the first game of a playoff slate, my exception may be with Tannehill. Play the former Aggie stacked with A.J. Brown and a bring back of your choice and you ride with a unique construction generating leverage off Joe Burrow and Derrick Henry.

Packers-49ers is a high volatility game with two slow-paced teams. However, the high-level skill players in this game provides a ceiling which will not be efficiently rostered in DFS contests. In their earlier meeting, these teams lit up the scoreboard for 58 combined points. In a similar shootout,  it is plausible Davante Adams and Deebo Samuel are the two highest scoring receivers on the slate. I will also be over-weight vs. the field on Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle in this game which offers asymmetric upside for its projected ownership.

Joe Burrow creates an interactive situation being the first game on the slate. If he crushes and puts up over 30 points to start the week, you can optimize your lineups to make a run in the bigger tournaments. On the other hand, if he is mediocre, you could pivot to play it safe and end in the green, or ultimately sell out for a volatile option who may or may not hit. If you don’t start him and he puts up 40, you can adjust your other lineups knowing Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen are must-plays because none of the other quarterbacks have it in their range of outcomes.

Finding pieces to compliment the skinny stacks aren’t tricky; I expect all these games to put up at least 48 points. The key to this is maximizing the opportunities each player sees. Players like Tee Higgins and Julio Jones will be utilized in the lineups where I want stronger running backs. Meanwhile, I will maximize the exposure to primary pass catchers.